Line on betfair dropping steadily today, down to +1450 / -1500

It's difficult to quantify the willingness of the entire judicial system to hollow out the will of THAT many voters. If it was truly down to one state, I'd give Trump +200 odds.

The odds on Trump are shortening. Not by a significant amount but still shortening. Can't tell if that's because people are cashing out their bets because they want the money now or because they don't want to take the risk that Trump might become president (not that he will). Or because it's what you say - people taking a punt that Trump might still win.

I think it's clear he can't win. But he cannot accept the fact he lost, so he will now convince his followers it was stolen from him and delegitimize American government. Give it 20 more years and America will become like Afghanistan and Lebanon, but with nuclear weapons.

Why is there such discrepancy whether there was fraud or not. I dont fn get it. they are lining witnesses up and what not and yet either gives all ****s or none at all. Im completely willing to accept Biden won, but i just dont get this. I JUST FN DONT. Just with corona. One side thinks its all bullshit the other side thinks ur killing ur whole family for not wearing a mask. WHICH SIDE IS CORRECT?

I mean there's probably been fraud in every election in US history. To claim that no fraud is possible is kind of a bad take.

The degree the fraud effects the outcome is what they should be focusing on.

-300 or so. Not the -400 I thought at the time, but the polling error also wasn't guaranteed and Biden still wins with a couple states to spare

Fair line right now would be in the -20000 range maybe? It's over, even if fraud is found in one state or something which it won't be. Maybe even -30000? Something like that. The court is stacked w far right partisan hacks, but the American democracy would have to be systematically dismantled for Trump to remain President at this point. The only reason i'm not shoving my roll at -2000 is I don't want to potentially tie up my roll for 3 months for a 5% return as i'd make much more than that in EV just turning it over a ton of times between now and then on regular sport.

The two reasons it is -2000 or so at the moment are people cashing out to free up liquidity since some people are happy to lose a couple percent to not have the cash tied up to January, and MAGA conspiracy theorist types who are convinced Trump is going to win still (I know a few of the latter types IRL, including one who is adding more Trump now etc no matter how much i try and talk him out of it; he is very square obv)

The reason the odds are shortening is a mixture of people cashing out their betfair positions to free up liquidity for NFL, IPL, EPL, College Football and whatever else it is people are betting they realise Trump isn't going to concede and Betfair may no grade until January at this point even though Trump isn't winning. There isn't anything else to it.

Remember, Hillary to win the nomination was sitting in a similar range to Trump is now literally after the deadlines to file paperwork to run had passed etc and it was abundantly clear she was running 0% of the time this cycle etc

There will always be some % of hardcore MAGA types or Qanon types that will insist Trump is going to win right up until Biden is actually inaugurated, if they left the market up (and they may for all I know) I fully expect it would still be -3000 or -5000 at most literally the day before the Biden inauguration

That was a bad (albeit small) Maricopa batch for Trump

Arizona done. RIP. Insane swing from two close losses in GA/AZ.

Never been so salty about making money.

Such an insane swing, it's almost criminal, wouldn't you say?

What a weird coincidence Biden got JUST the amount of votes he needed in GA and AZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pretty sure you're trolling at this point.

I can agree that one or two votes are fraudulent.
But just remember. Arizona/ Georgia. Two Republican run states.
For fraud to have occurred in such substantial manner that would have influenced the election all over the country is just not possible. It would mean that the whole country is nothing but a banana republic. 150 and million votes were cast.
Trumps behavior in the whole matter is not surprising and also a reason why the majority of Americans rejected him from the beginning. He was building up to this fiasco from the moment he announced months ago that the only way he could lose was if the election was rigged.
He has now exposed himself for the sham he is. I hope more of his supporters recognize this finally.


Edit: yes he was somewhat treated unfairly by the left. But for a lot of it he has no one to blame but himself. Right from the beginning when he made false claims about his inaugural crowd size. When I know that someone is lying to me, the president no less, how can I ever trust this guy.
What was mind boggling to me was how his base didn't see the deceptions the were right in front of them or how they seemed to just not care.

Are these people claiming fraud ready to testify in a courtroom? Because anyone can post a tweet and say literally anything. To do it under oath, where lying becomes a criminal offense, is quite different.

Betting the swings in Arizona markets over the last few days has been quite easy. Standing buy orders on GOP No and Dem Yes in the low-to-mid 70s and sell orders in the mid 80s on PredictIt has been close to free money.

You'll learn very soon that none of this is a joke or troll.

We're gonna get to the bottom of this and we're gonna get to the bottom of this very soon.

Multiple members of my family were at the shooting range this weekend.

I am 100% serious. If there was no fraud, great, we will happily accept the loss.

However, usually, where there's smoke, there's fire. There is already a postal worker in PA who swore in an affidavit they were post-dating ballots

It's truly astonishing the bar so many Americans set for fire indicating smoke when it's something they want to be true.

jvs

I think his base overlooks his lies because they hate the left so much and Trump is fighting against the left for them. If they started admitting that Trump was lying, they'd be agreeing with the left and undermining their own cause. That's something they could never do.

Then there's the people who don't like Trump, but they want a republican government, so they reluctantly vote for him anyway.

Biden/Obama are way more Republican than Trump lol

the track record speaks for itself

you're a moron


talk less and listen more

Uhh?

Yeah, I wonder what he meant by that, too. Maybe organized extremist violence is coming to America sooner than I thought.

that's exactly what that clown meant

This guy's talking about an intent to commit violence.
This isn't funny.

Wtf

Donald Trump said he will only accept the results of the election, if he wins, back in 2016.
He's poisoned the country.