How much of an advantage over polling do you think some candidates will have in caucus states?

right now on predict it you can bet R to win the election at 52c and D at 50c. Is the vig on there high enough to wipe out the free money arb? Do people really think a 3rd party has any chance? Or am I just reading this all completely wrong?

There would be an arb (not accounting for vig or fees) if it were R 48c and D 50c. A number over 50 means it's chalk.

Hmm, I see. Thanks.

I am embarrassingly bad at understanding odds that are anything other than american style (-130 / +115). When people post that they have odds of 1.48 or whatever its like speaking chinese to me.

For decimal
For favs

1.48 do 1/.48 = 2.083333 = -208.33 odds

1.72 do 1/.72 = 1.38888 = -138.88 odds

For dogs its obv super easy, just subtract 1 from it and theres your plus number when you multiply by 100

eg 3.48 - 1 = 2.48 = +248

To convert the other way, add 100 then divide by original number

Favs

-130 = 230/130 = 1.769

-160 = 260/160 = 1.625

Or again with dogs

+326

Add 100, then that'd your price in decimal when you divide by 100

326+100 = 426 = 4.26 decimal price

Fractional odds on the other hand are ****ing stupid and I have no idea why some random UK books use them

thanks swoop

in my example though I saw R at 52 and D at 50. Doesnt that mean theyre saying R has 52% chance to win and D has 50%?

I am pretty sure that Predicit's vig kills the edge here. They take a % of all winning bets and another cut for cashouts.

In your example the 50 yes is +100 and the 52 yes is approx -110 so no there isn't an arb plus predictit charges fees etc as well

once the market closes in NOV 2020 the price for R/D will either go to $1 or 0 depending on who gets elected.

so if the D wins in Nov your D shares will double in value (from 50c to $1 per share) and R shares go to 0, if R wins your R shares would have slightly less than doubled in value (they go from 52c to $1 per share) and D shares will go to 0, therefore if you buy 10 shares of each the best you can do is breakeven by the Democrat winning.


If you are really looking for "free money" with small returns just fade Yang or Mayor Pete

Not sure why Sanders is trading at 44 to win Iowa and Biden is only at 35. Biden is leading in the polls and the 538 projections. Plus the weird Iowa process is going to help Biden. In each precinct, there will be an initial caucus, where everyone stands in a certain spot to support their chosen candidate. Then, for any candidate who doesn't reach 15% for that precinct, their supporters will have to choose someone else to support. Klobuchar, polling at about 10%, is going to be nonviable in a lot of precincts, and her votes are going to go mainly to Biden.

I'm long Biden, short everyone else.

Take the fees and commission out for a sec. Lets call everything "pre-fee."




The 50 and 52 numbers represent the markets true price on a person in percent form. So theyre saying D wins 50% of the time and R wins 52% of the time?

Also, and heres my main question I guess, lets assume that predict is perfectly efficient. Lets say have bernie to win president at 30c. That means Bernie wins the president 30% of the time. 30% = +233 odds. So if I can get bernie at +300 to win, I have an edge, correct? IF predict is perfectly efficient which it obviously isnt, just using it for this example.

Just seeing this post. I get it now, thank you for the explanation this makes sense to me

Anyway, heres everything politics that I have. I have more positions than I initially thought:

To win the presidency:
Bernie +900 risk 1u

Biden +450 risk 1u

Dem candidate:
Bernie +475 risk 1u

Biden +275 risk 1.5 u

Win NH Dem primary:
Bernie +105 risk 1.25u

SC Dem primary:
Biden -300 to win 1u
Biden -350 to win 1u

Dem Vice pres nominee:
Liz Warren +2000 risk 1u

To win presidency:
Republicans: +100 to win 3u

Iowa Dem caucus:
Bernie +175 risk 2u


Theyre almost all way better than current predict prices but not so much on 538. The real question is how efficient predict it is. I almost always trust real money exchanges over any polling or super pollster or whatever but Im not sure here. Overall Im happy with my positions and will be looking to add on more Donald to win it all as a hedge and because I just think he'll win by more than people think, just like last time

.

Yang has upside to grow his base, he won't win but the more people see of him the more they like, the opposite is true for Pete outside of upper-middle-class-white-moderates

Fading Gabbard is and will always be the most free money spot in the field she is very widely hated by the D base to the point where she was going to lose a primary for her congressional district and dropped out and she is currently trying to sue the 2016 nominee lol

I still think fading Bloomberg is free money he has infinite money and is saturating the airwaves to the point that a lot of people will only be seeing ads from him and maybe Steyer in some areas and he's still not breaking 10-15%, when the Iowa/NH etc winners get the media cycle he loses his 'only guy on the airwaves' advantage, there is basically no one who wants him to be the nominee he has the same problem Buttigieg in that there's no demand for what he's selling in the Dem base, to have any chance he'd need both Biden and Pete to drop out pre super Tuesday to capture the entire moderates aisle and for that to happen Sanders (or possibly Warren or whoever) would have to have swept the early states

Bloomberg as third favourite at 13% is a bit lol, I know her campaign's done a ton wrong recently but Warren below Bloomberg is just ridiculous

Bloomberg isn't even the most likeable self funding billionaire in the race. Honestly i'd rather take Steyer at 1% than Bloomberg at 13% if i'm taking 'rich dude who thinks he can buy the race'

I don't see any universe in which the Dems nominate a billionaire in 2020 though

It's Biden/Bernie at this point, and Biden is going to win. Left wing is going to coalesce around Bernie, moderates around Biden.
All Biden needs to do is not finish embarrassingly badly in IA and NH. Then it's basically a replay of 2016, where Biden wins southern states and primaries, and Bernie wins caucus states.

Also, did you guys know that in 1979, when Iran took American embassy workers as hostages, Bernie supported Iran? https://www.thedailybeast.com/when-i...rans-defenders
That's pretty much indefensible.

im no super trumper and a lot of what he does is objectively bad and its WILD that hes the president, but bernie ****ing sanders having any shot at all at being president is just astounding to me

Democrats ftw?

With how good Bernie is doing in the polls, you think that he would lay off saying things like this

That is pretty insane. I feel like Sanders would have major problems in a general election, especially as stuff like this continues to come out. The Trump campaign calls people to gauge the best lines of attack. I got one of these calls in 2016.

national. rent control. this guy is unreal

Qanon crowd is back boosting Hillary to 5% with Iowa caucus a week away and Hillary clearly not running for President

Free money on a fade if anyone wants it

Bloomberg third fav which is super lol

I don't mind Warren again at 8% if Bernie stumbles somewhere plus slim chance he randomly dies or whatever because he's old - obv it's likely to be Bernie vs Biden because they've almost run the clock out, but it's not impossible that someone exceeds expectations in IA/NH out of the next tier and Warren is probably the most likely to do that of everyone left - Buttigieg is drawing dead if he doesn't win Iowa, Yang's improving but too little too late and Klobuchar has never had a chance and Warren's the only one with the infrastructure of a potential frontrunner other than Bloomberg who is skipping the early primaries and has no constituency/money can only buy you so much and the IA/NH winners will be getting tons of free positive media coverage

I agree that Warren seems like the best value at 8%. This reminds me of how I felt four years ago during the Republican primaries when Rubio was the plurality. I was looking over the other candidates and I felt like no one had a realistic chance, yet someone had to get the nomination.

Warren was supposed to win this cycle but she just has bad political instincts in a lot of ways

Honestly anything can happen from here although I'd be legit shocked if either billionaire is nominated and klobs been drawing dead since the abusing her staff stuff came out and Buttigiegs zero minority support sinks him

I actually think yang might be the 4th fav as ridiculous as that is with Bloomberg maybe fifth just due to money alone but he would need both Biden and Bernie to fall hard