Is there anywhere I can find the daily schedules for VP, Yang, AOC?

Trying to improve my results in the tweet markets and found Trump's schedule pretty easily but apparently I suck at googling the rest.

I found their major event schedules but looking for the day to day stuff to try to figure out how their schedules might influence their tweeting.

Exited my Netanyahu Indictment longs after they tripled. The Israeli AG announced he would be indicted, but there is a complicated process after that and it's not clear which of the steps in that process would be considered "indictment" by PredictIt.

Bloomberg back at 13 on the official announcement

Fadeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

He won't get 10% in any poll in any state despite his tens of billions of dollars

Absolutely ridiculous that anyone thinks he has a chance especially skipping the early states its just a matter of time until he gets heckled with **** off you billionaire egotistical ******* comments from the D base the same way starbucks douche got laughed at when he wanted to run as an Independent

There is absolutely no appetite for a Bloomberg candidacy, I mean even if Biden falters he's not popular with minority voters which is Pete the other moderate's weakness so wtf how does he think he wins other than buy a hundred million dollars worth of ads and hope

Bloomberg + Hillary who isn't running combine on Predictit for about the same price as one of the four frontrunners who actually have a chance, it's baffling their combined equity is like 1% at best (and that 1% comes from when Hillary runs which she won't not from Bloomberg)

Obv if he somehow won I get to be mocked forever but yeah there's a better chance of a Kamala Harris resurgence or Cory Booker or Klobuchar or something than Bloomberg

At this point i'd be surprised if it isn't one of the top four candidates and tbh I still fully expect it to be Warren with some chance of Biden

Yang is the only candidate with potential to break into the top tier imo (unless someone else who isn't running announces who is good) and even then it's a very slim chance, he just doesn't have the exposure he needs and it's getting too close to the end of 2019

in my own experience though ive noticed that bloomberg has somewhat of a cult following. I have nothing to back this up with but it seems like super rich people LOVE him for some reason. I cant imagine a scenario where he even gets close either, though. But I might wait to fade him. I wouldnt be shocked to see him get a little bump with a massive ad campaign then fade.

Yeah I wouldn't be shocked if he trades in the 20s on Predictit after his initial ad blitz, then eventually after he's blanketed media airwaves and stuck at 10% or lower people will realise wait there's no actual base here for him other than rich wall street types who hate Trump or super low information voters maybe

Read an interesting 'theory' that he's only a candidate because it's easier to engage in infinite political spending when he's 'running for president' and the goal is to defeat Trump through mass spending but not necessarily win the nomination itself - I don't find it convincing but it made an interesting read

Pretty lol he can dump 40 million dollars into ads and it's like one of us going out for dinner at a restaurant in terms of how much it affects his net worth

There simply aren't enough mega rich moderate Dems unless he's suddenly charismatic enough to get all of the low information voters and i've seen no indication that's the case

Would be fun if he's running to literally dump 10 billion dollars into negative ad buys about Trump/positive ads about parts of the Democratic platform in all of the swing states for an entire year though

Just to be clear I do think Bloomberg's running to win because he's a billionaire and probably a narcissist like most billionaires who think they'd make a great president but yeah he's drawing super dead even with infinity dollars. Will be interesting to see how high he trades at some point.

Pretty funny that Hillary is still trading at like 6% or whatever on Predictit as well when she's not running

Trump's approval rating among Blacks is rising:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/democ...r-trump-rising


Earlier this month, Kanye West advised blacks not to feel they owe fealty to the Democratic Party, as reported by Page Six, asserting:

America! You know, South America, North America...all the America's!

Dailywire is a right wing propaganda site and Rasmussen is a Republican polling firm. That'd be like getting your news exclusively from Dailykos or whatever and assuming that all of it is going to be unbiased information not stuff that puts Democratic candidates in the most favourable light

Go to fivethirtyeight if you want to look at polling averages across all polls for various demographics etc etc

It's way too soon to draw any inferences as we don't know who the candidate is yet. For example, Buttigieg is going to get less African American voters than say Biden

Trump is not going to do significantly better or worse among black voters than he did in 2016. Hillary Clinton was a very unpopular candidate at least equally unpopular with all of the current D candidates running.

Also approval does not automatically equal 'will vote for this person'. Plenty of people either approve or disapprove of both major party candidates and either don't vote or vote for the lesser evil or the preferred option of two candidates they like.

In 2016 the black vote went 88-8 Clinton over Trump

Obviously in 2008-12 with an African American candidate the black vote was even higher

In 2004 it went 88-11 Kerry over Bush

In 2000 it went 90-9 Gore over Bush

In 1996 it went 84-12-4 Clinton Dole Perot

There are not a lot of swing black voters, what matters is the turnout rate for black voters going up or down compared to 2016 (and the same for white rural male voters, and other various sections of the D or R base)

In general if turnout goes up the Democrat will win and if turnout goes down Trump will win compared to 2016 - the Ds start with a small edge imo though due to Trump being polarising/all of the elections since he's been in office have had high turnout (2017 2018 and 2019 midterm and governor and special elections tended to have swings towards Democrats)/turnout was low in 2016 compared to previous recent elections

Obviously a lot can happen if the Democratic nominee is very unpopular or if Trump becomes more popular before the election but if nothing changes he isn't going to win with his current numbers. The economy certainly isn't going to be better, it'll be the same or worse (if it gets notably worse he's toast) so Trump's overall approval rating improvement would have to come in some other area, which is possible, but he's a dumpster fire, so probably won't happen. If he was smart he'd be looking to rack up some bipartisan policy wins, but instead he's going to rant about deep state conspiracies on twitter and randomly lurch from scandal to scandal because with the exception of his tax cuts which exploded the deficit and confirming supreme court justices, he doesn't really have any legislative wins.

There is a zero percent chance that Trump wins 15%+ of the black vote (maybe like 16 or whatever if Buttigieg or someone uniquely unappealing to black voters is nominated)

@Cody i'll give you 3 to 1 on any amount of money you want up to like 100k that Trump doesn't get 20% of the black vote, or you can have Trump doesn't get 16% of the black vote at evens if you believe those black voter approval numbers are real

We can set up an escrow for big numbers or if it's small numbers like a hundred bucks can just book it in thread and i'll take your word for it

Lmao at this offer. Are you trying to bilk the man? This is a fleece if I ever saw one hahaha. I don’t think I’d even start to consider O20 unless it inched towards 50/1.

Good to see Swoop still here politarding...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

Where exactly can I parse for race?

if these places are all compromised then where can we go for info?

FiveThirtyEight for aggregate. They don’t break it down by race, just overall polls.

Swoop is right about Rasmussen. It’s always skewed by like 5 percentage points to the right.

I read as much liberal and right sites as I can. I try to incorporate both.

I don't think he's going to get that high

@Cody cool all good etc

and HITS obv I know 538 isn't the be all and end all of polling averages etc and that a lot of their attempted punditry is garbage, but I was making the main point of Rasmussen polls specifically are garbage and aren't worth anything. That's all.

Obviously I recognise that as a left-leaning person I have inherent biases, but Rasmussen polls being objectively trash has nothing to do with my personal beliefs and everything to do with their garbage methodology.

Sheesh



Viral article slamming Buttigieg over lack of understanding education system for Blacks. He called the author to smooth over differences.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...on-past-racial

It seems like he takes one step forward and two steps back. You guys were right, he doesn't have a path.

Trump market for impeachment by the end of the year trading at 45c on Preddictit. Seems a little high no? Congress can't get anything done.

The fact that it has got this far on nothing but a word of mouth is nothing short of extraordinary my friend. I wouldn't be surprised by anything at this stage.

It's a legitimate joke at this stage and will be one of the reasons trump wins in a land slide imo.

Considering the guy who supposedly got extorted has repeatedly denied it... Wao. Dank timeline.

BF has him at like 1.25 to be the R nom in 2020. Think that is super soft. Get your fill at $45. (Information based on when I looked last I looked. Maybe not up to date.)

The impeachment is basically where everything is now. Everyone believes what they believe and TDS is rampant. We're in a world where Swoop literally espouses completely insane conspiracy theories (literal rigging of ballot boxes) that have zero basis and isn't openly laughed at (okay I guess I openly ridicule him). He also likes to make up "facts" cause he is a dishonest dude. But w/e. (538 had zero of the information he claimed and only after getting clowned walked back on his first dumb post)

Carry on.

Calling swoop dishonest in this industry its like calling Mother Theresa a terrorist

He is the most honest person i ve met in my carreer.

If you make a character insult back it up, you ****ing worm

Weird hot take. Virtually everyone has a pristine rep except for a few shitbags wrt stealing. I'm simply saying he's making **** up on a message board and explicitly stated what he was making up. Maybe the weird ( ) curvy lines confuse you? Dunno if they have those in your native language.

You literally begged me to post here and now I'm being insulted? Crazy! Or maybe you expected me to give you some ****ing handout? Go read the crowdsource thread. I'm throwing pearls before swine there.

Calm down,stress will only deteriorate your batman shaped hairline

Save those follicles

Man. So instead of trying to defend your friend who obviously is making up fake sources for his bullshit, you try to attack my personal appearance? (Kinda creepy, but whatever makes you happy man. If you wanna wank it to my pics, you do you.)