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Old 11-17-2019, 11:25 AM   #301
The Bukafax
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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That's not what you are arguing in this thread thou. You clearly seem to hold the belief that it is so much harder for them that government intervention is required to make it a level playing field when by most metrics it doesn't seem to be the case. The average income of a lot of minorities that come to America (chinese,indian,african,etc) end up having a higher average income than the white population. So much for racism right?

Anyways it will be funny in a few years when America becomes a majority mexican country and you will realise that white people are the most tolerant people in the world. Name one non white country that is less racist and more tolerant of minorities. Just one please.
That income average stat has to be bullshit. Bezos, Gates, Buffett, etc would skew that metric so much.

You’re argument about minority tolerance is also poorly laid out. Are you solely using the metric of immigration as your example of tolerance? That wouldn’t make any sense. As most non-white majority countries aren’t of the first world. Even still U.A.E and Saudia Arabia have some of the worlds highest ratio of immigrants. On top of that the US has a news station who broadcasts to the most people out of any news organization in the country about how the country is being taken over to brainwash people’s minds into assuming that is an instant negative.

The past would suggest White people aren’t very tolerant just based off of 2 events, slavery in America and the attempted Jewish Holocaust.

Last edited by The Bukafax; 11-17-2019 at 11:34 AM.
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Old 11-17-2019, 12:26 PM   #302
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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It's my guess but it's based on what is out there.
Its either a guess or its a line you saw. Cant be both
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Old 11-17-2019, 12:29 PM   #303
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Glad this thread is totally focused on betting and not what a bunch of weirdos believe about politics!

bud...not only has no one asked you to post here, youve actually been asked not to, by multiple people. Youre literally banned from posting here. I dont care if you do or dont, but lets just be clear here. You are very much not wanted here, like at all.
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Old 11-17-2019, 12:35 PM   #304
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Warren v. Trump would be 55%-45% Warren favored
btw I think youre young? I think youve mentioned that before. Or at least new to betting? Either way...you shouldnt be so sure about a market to be like "this what the line will be, period." Take it from someone whos been doing this for a long time. Youll see things that will just blow your mind and being so sure about yourself and what a line will be or 'should' be will only get you in trouble.
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Old 11-17-2019, 12:41 PM   #305
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Buka,

So two places that import slaves are your example of tolerance? Whew lad!

Poogs,

None of that is actually true! Who knew you lived in a fantasy land as well.
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Old 11-17-2019, 12:48 PM   #306
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Buka,

So two places that import slaves are your example of tolerance? Whew lad!

Poogs,

None of that is actually true! Who knew you lived in a fantasy land as well.
lvr never stated a metric to qualify it beyond the discussion on immigration. I gave two non-white majority countries which have a large percentage of immigrants among their population.
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Old 11-17-2019, 12:58 PM   #307
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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lvr never stated a metric to qualify it beyond the discussion on immigration. I gave two non-white majority countries which have a large percentage of immigrants among their population.
you know that everyone else had slaves too, right? And there are still slaves today? And that white people ended black slavery which we kinda really didnt have to do.

And you know that other people have had huge, MASSIVE genocides right on par with the holocaust.

And other countries and non-white people have SUPER racist people. Go ask an older japanese guy what he thinks of any other asian group.

Lots of white people (like you, apparently) have savior complexes where theyre the problem and solution for every brown or black persons problem. its actually kind of racist, thinking everyone needs your help.

I know we're off track here but this notion that america and white people are uniquely racist is just simply not true. Name and place in any point in history where black people have/had a higher standard of living than right now in America
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Old 11-17-2019, 01:15 PM   #308
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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you know that everyone else had slaves too, right? And there are still slaves today? And that white people ended black slavery which we kinda really didnt have to do.

And you know that other people have had huge, MASSIVE genocides right on par with the holocaust.

And other countries and non-white people have SUPER racist people. Go ask an older japanese guy what he thinks of any other asian group.

Lots of white people (like you, apparently) have savior complexes where theyre the problem and solution for every brown or black persons problem. its actually kind of racist, thinking everyone needs your help.

I know we're off track here but this notion that america and white people are uniquely racist is just simply not true. Name and place in any point in history where black people have/had a higher standard of living than right now in America
I’m not quite sure why everyone else having slaves too makes it an acceptable practice to hand wave with “Ya’know everybody else did it so...”.

Yes I am well aware of Japanese/Chinese race bullshit. Japan is going to be dealing with their anti-immigrant stance in a hard way in the next decade or two.

I don’t have a Savior complex. There’s nothing I can do about it beyond being a good person. It’s just the way I view the world. My thinking leans on a macro scale. I don’t look at it in an individual sense and think they anybody in particular needs saving. I just believe classes of people are put in positions which makes it difficult for them to successfully provide in a meaningful way to society. I believe that everybody should be able to come into a position where they do not have to fight an uphill battle to successfully do that.

Of course white people arent uniquely racist. On a macro scale in America they are at the top of the pile. The time and place in history argument is also a bad one. Name and time and place in history humanity as a whole had a higher standard of living. Just because we are at a current peak dosent not cumulatively make that the pinnacle.
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Old 11-17-2019, 01:16 PM   #309
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

****. The Confederacy was way way more tolerant than the Union by that metric! Thanks for clearing that up for me!
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Old 11-17-2019, 03:32 PM   #310
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

My dudes: there is an entire forum here dedicated to allowing you to post your level 1 hot takes on racial politics. Please post actionable information here.
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Old 11-17-2019, 06:48 PM   #311
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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My dudes: there is an entire forum here dedicated to allowing you to post your level 1 hot takes on racial politics. Please post actionable information here.
Do you have thoughts about the most recent Buttigieg poll that showed him leading in Iowa? I thought it was a good time to hop on the train as Warren seems week and Biden seems unelectable. I think he was trading at around 20c at Preddictit. I got him at +400 to win Dem nod.
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Old 11-17-2019, 06:52 PM   #312
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Either way...you shouldnt be so sure about a market to be like "this what the line will be, period."
I am not dogmatic about it, even though that's how it may have seemed from that particular post. My understanding was that it would be perceived as my best guess based on bookmakers current odds.
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Old 11-18-2019, 12:35 AM   #313
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Do you have thoughts about the most recent Buttigieg poll that showed him leading in Iowa? I thought it was a good time to hop on the train as Warren seems week and Biden seems unelectable. I think he was trading at around 20c at Preddictit. I got him at +400 to win Dem nod.
I prefer backing Buttigieg to win Iowa at 37c if you like his chances because the next week Warren or Sanders is going to win NH and take the news cycle back and Buttigieg is drawing dead in South Carolina too

If Buttigieg doesn't win Iowa, he is 0%ish to win the nomination

If he does win Iowa, 20 vs 37 - is he really the 54% required to be the D nominee from there when he's polling so poorly in the other pre Super Tuesday states? He'd need Biden to drop out and the moderate lane to be cleared before Super Tuesday and Biden probably stays in until SC at least because that's his best polling early state, and Biden's likely to at least win or finish second in SC which should be enough to roll the dice with his national polling for Super Tuesday since he can always drop out if he bricks ST

Imo Buttigieg to win Iowa is far better at 37 than Buttigieg to be the nominee at 20 because he wins Iowa and loses the nomination at least half the time when he wins Iowa, and basically he has to hope Bernie and Warren split the NH vote almost equally to have a chance to win NH as well and get the momentum he needs pre ST

Buttigieg won't play well in the South and I can't see a scenario where he wins California or NY either unless he becomes the 'presumptive nominee' really quickly, he really needs to go Iowa --> NH --> NV and have tons of momentum from the start if he's gonna win the nomination (and tbh if he does that one of Warren or Sanders may drop out to endorse the other and rally the progressives around one candidate)

It's pretty important for both the progressives and the moderates hopes at the nomination to consolidate around one candidate asap - atm the moderates have Biden/Buttigieg with others in the wings and the progressives have Warren/Bernie, obv splitting either the moderate or progressive vote is bad for all of the candidates in whichever category is more split
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Old 11-18-2019, 02:33 AM   #314
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

That's a pretty interesting analysis and I would have to say that I agree with it.
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Old 11-18-2019, 03:06 AM   #315
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

If that's the case and you don't think Buttigieg wins the nom over half the time but do like him to win Iowa you should ditch your Buttigieg nom position and take a Buttigieg wins Iowa position instead (or I mean keep both if you think the to be the nominee bet is still good, but you should also have the Iowa bet if you agree w/ that analysis and think Buttigieg at 20% is value to be the the nominee because if that's the case Buttigieg to win Iowa at 37 is value

gl

I'm not sold on Buttigieg at those prices myself but i'd definitely take the Iowa bet over the wins the nomination bet if I thought he was undervalued

I still think his lack of working class and minority support will sink him in the long term but I do concede that he may win Iowa if Sanders and Warren closely split the progressive vote and Biden continues sinking
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Old 11-18-2019, 05:44 AM   #316
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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That income average stat has to be bullshit. Bezos, Gates, Buffett, etc would skew that metric so much.

You’re argument about minority tolerance is also poorly laid out. Are you solely using the metric of immigration as your example of tolerance? That wouldn’t make any sense. As most non-white majority countries aren’t of the first world. Even still U.A.E and Saudia Arabia have some of the worlds highest ratio of immigrants. On top of that the US has a news station who broadcasts to the most people out of any news organization in the country about how the country is being taken over to brainwash people’s minds into assuming that is an instant negative.

The past would suggest White people aren’t very tolerant just based off of 2 events, slavery in America and the attempted Jewish Holocaust.
Not making an argument my friend just a small vent here and there to people like you ruining the western world

Also I was supposed to type median income but most people should get the jist of what I'm trying to say

Immigrants come here and are extremely successful and a lot of groups outperform whites very quickly yet they still complain and want more

At the end of the day if you are a competent person you will be successful anywhere

Just look at the Chinese. They get hated in every single country they go to and still succeed. Why is that? It's because they don't complain and work.
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Old 11-18-2019, 05:45 AM   #317
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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My dudes: there is an entire forum here dedicated to allowing you to post your level 1 hot takes on racial politics. Please post actionable information here.
lol racial politics? all politics is racial at this current point in time

heck everything is racist right now

even disney , nfl and anything else white people do ffs

also I did post in that forum once a point in time and got banned within 4 posts so there's that

my views are considered "trolling" so w.e

Last edited by lvr; 11-18-2019 at 05:54 AM.
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Old 11-18-2019, 12:18 PM   #318
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

How are we accounting for the corruption in the DNC? They rigged 2016. Do we think they're suddenly reformed and won't rig the primary? Maybe this is why Biden is still floating around despite the issues with corruption in Ukraine/China/etc?
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Old 11-18-2019, 12:54 PM   #319
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I like Buttigieg a lot better to win Iowa than to win the nomination. As I said earlier, maxed him out at 21. Though if he does win Iowa, his overall nom odds will go way up and provide a good exit point.

I don't think he's drawing dead to win NH, either. He's moving up in the polls there as well, and there's a lot of time before the voting starts.

To me the real question is whether Warren can untie herself from Medicare For All / Ban Private Insurance, which is making people think she'd be unelectable in the general.
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Old 11-18-2019, 04:33 PM   #320
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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How are we accounting for the corruption in the DNC? They rigged 2016. Do we think they're suddenly reformed and won't rig the primary? Maybe this is why Biden is still floating around despite the issues with corruption in Ukraine/China/etc?
More eyes will be on them so I would expect less shady things. All of these guys are pretty establishment anyway (exception being Yang). Biden just continues to make gaffe after gaffe that hurt his electability, these are serious gaffes that have only continued to get worse. It's going to be Warren or Buttigieg most likely, I don't really see many dark horses from the Dems. I feel like the DNC would prefer Warren or Buttigieg to Biden, simply because they have a better chance to win.
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Old 11-18-2019, 06:51 PM   #321
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

If Buttigieg ends up pulling the upset in iowa, that would be great news for biden, right? Biden's firewall has always been the south/black voters, IMO Warren was always the greater threat, but if she misses her shot in the early states, then Biden wins the nomination easily....

what am i missing?
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Old 11-18-2019, 07:21 PM   #322
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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what am i missing?
Biden just isn't a good candidate. I am very bearish on him, keeps saying progressively stupider things. Doesn't fare well for his long-term viability.
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Old 11-18-2019, 07:22 PM   #323
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Buttigieg line just moved to +325, books have been slow to incorporate these new polls.
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Old 11-18-2019, 08:09 PM   #324
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I've been fading biden for awhile and favoriting warren, poll came out today and buttigieg is literally polling at 0% with black voters...

considering biden's strength with black voters (his numbers in that demographic have remained stable despite his campaign dropping off), i'm thinking now might be a good time to scoop up some biden shares all around

what is warren's path if she loses iowa/NH?
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Old 11-19-2019, 01:50 AM   #325
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Warren needs to win NH so does Bernie. If neither does one needs to drop out and endorse the other before super Tuesday to consolidate the progressive left bloc

Buttigieg will have a problem winning black voters in the south I feel like Biden still has a better chance than Buttigieg due to minority and boomer dem voters but yeah Buttigieg is very live in Iowa

Primary dynamics are very uncertain because we don't know if the left or the moderates rally around a single candidate first

I still think warren is the best value atm but Biden's back to about his true price now after being overrated for a long time. Biden will win moderates but depress youth and progressive turnout. Interesting primary in general

If it comes down to warren vs Buttigieg I think she wins on the back of minority and leftist support but she needs Sanders to drop out and endorse her at some point (Bernie needs the same from warren if he's doing better than she is early)

Harris was supposed to be the compromise candidate but it just turns out no one likes her
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