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Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
Do you have thoughts about the most recent Buttigieg poll that showed him leading in Iowa? I thought it was a good time to hop on the train as Warren seems week and Biden seems unelectable. I think he was trading at around 20c at Preddictit. I got him at +400 to win Dem nod.
I prefer backing Buttigieg to win Iowa at 37c if you like his chances because the next week Warren or Sanders is going to win NH and take the news cycle back and Buttigieg is drawing dead in South Carolina too
If Buttigieg doesn't win Iowa, he is 0%ish to win the nomination
If he does win Iowa, 20 vs 37 - is he really the 54% required to be the D nominee from there when he's polling so poorly in the other pre Super Tuesday states? He'd need Biden to drop out and the moderate lane to be cleared before Super Tuesday and Biden probably stays in until SC at least because that's his best polling early state, and Biden's likely to at least win or finish second in SC which should be enough to roll the dice with his national polling for Super Tuesday since he can always drop out if he bricks ST
Imo Buttigieg to win Iowa is far better at 37 than Buttigieg to be the nominee at 20 because he wins Iowa and loses the nomination at least half the time when he wins Iowa, and basically he has to hope Bernie and Warren split the NH vote almost equally to have a chance to win NH as well and get the momentum he needs pre ST
Buttigieg won't play well in the South and I can't see a scenario where he wins California or NY either unless he becomes the 'presumptive nominee' really quickly, he really needs to go Iowa --> NH --> NV and have tons of momentum from the start if he's gonna win the nomination (and tbh if he does that one of Warren or Sanders may drop out to endorse the other and rally the progressives around one candidate)
It's pretty important for both the progressives and the moderates hopes at the nomination to consolidate around one candidate asap - atm the moderates have Biden/Buttigieg with others in the wings and the progressives have Warren/Bernie, obv splitting either the moderate or progressive vote is bad for all of the candidates in whichever category is more split