Indeed. There's a 24% overlay if you just short everything at the bid right now. Be a little more patient and you can do even better. That way you get free money, plus a freeroll on the field in case something crazy happens and none of the top 12 get the nomination.

Maxed out on Bloomberg to run. No idea why that's trading at 70 right now. NYTimes says he's sent staffers to Alabama to gather signatures to qualify for the primary there (he only needs 500). And the FEC website says you have to file a Statement of Candidacy within 15 days of attempting to qualify for ballot access.

huh? You dont agree?

no poogs, i do not agree. you ignore the fact that there are also whites and browns who are a. not of voting age or b. do not vote. so you end up right back at ~13% of voters being black.

and even if you use proper logic and say it's 13%, you're still ignoring the fact that the people most concerned with black rights are upper middle class white people. that's another 15% there.

anyway, if you want to know the history behind why american blacks vote democrat, it probably has to do with this:

Okay never mind you guys are ******ed too.

People who are gullible enough to believe ignorant bullshit like that are the exact people I take money from in these markets.

arent you the 'intersectional credibility' guy? And the record low voter turn out?

And I dont bet on this stuff unless its way off market stuff. I admit I dont really know what im talking about. But neither does anyone else, like at all, ever. The difference is you guys say things like that^^

I remember Trump was making some more inroads with the Black community this summer, particularly among black men. A cursory search didn't reveal as to whether this trend has continued but it is possible that Republicans could pick up some more of these votes in 2020.

I am the one that stated that the Dem ticket will have some type of intersectional credibility. I still fully believe that.

I have seen poll numbers that indicate that estimates of Conservative empathy are greatly underrated. I would say that the mainstream and vast majority of Conservative voters support the policies they do (at least in part) because of their belief that they will be beneficial to minorities. Part of the reason I support Conservative policies is because I believe that they are beneficial to all American citizens. If I felt they were good for only white guys and were distinctly bad for all POC then I wouldn't support them anymore.

Trump getting less than 10% of the black vote is a lock

He'll roughly mimic his numbers from 2016 there isn't going to be a big swing to or from him among black voters

Your statement about supporting conservative policies being 'good for minorities' is either funny or sad depending how well researched you are on the issues. I assume you have somewhere between no to very few non wealthy minority women you interact with on a regular basis.

...not that Trump actually holds conservative viewpoints, I mean he's gotten the ****ing Republican party to support tariffs. Tariffs! One of the only few things conservatives were always right about on economic issues. lol

Once again this election is going to come down to turnout and whether Republicans have outright compromised voting machines in swing states or not. All indications suggest it'll be a high turnout election and if it is Trump is absolutely gone. The two ways he can win are outright cheat (voter suppression/outright compromising voter machines) or manage to define the Democratic nominee as equally or more unappealing and depress turnout 2016 levels or lower. Don't get me wrong, that is a viable path to victory, but he's certainly at least a +200 underdog to get reelected right now IF voting machines haven't been compromised.

Right now the freest money is to fade Bloomberg and Clinton for the D nomination though there's no reason to get involved in general election odds this far out when there's no way either candidate will be a bigger fav than -200 until at least around when the conventions are, unless I guess Trump's legal issues get a lot worse (more scandal with clear evidence that the public can understand eg he's caught on video using the n word or giving MBS the go ahead to kill Khashoggi or telling Ergodan hes fine with him killing the Kurds etc) and those scenarios while plausible seem fairly unlikely

The public needs audio and video for the scandal to be 'real' to people who lean conservative.

I personally think Trump's best chance is against Bernie, I think he's a dog to everyone but closer to a flip there as there's a LOT of ammo that the right wing media has in the bank to hit Bernie with that they've never used, the Warren/Biden/etc stuff is all old news and nothing really to it. I still don't see a way Buttigieg ever gets nominated, and I think Yang is running 4 or 8 years too soon (he'll continue to rise but won't get there)

I think Buttigieg might win a couple states, but I just don't see a path to the nomination for anyone other than Warren or if Warren/Sanders split the progressive vote by both staying in until after Super Tuesday and the moderate lane gets cleared for Biden he has a chance

Biden is just asking for a low turnout election but he is one of the few Ds who could win without huge turnout due to his appeal to moderates - I still think Ds are better off playing to the base though and just make this a bold big ideas campaign to turn out the base - she isn't traditionally charismatic, but Warren is the right person for that (Bernie would be too, but he's too old and with too much baggage)

Yang would beat Trump most easily in a general election because his policies are very appealing to liberals while his method of communication is very appealing to moderates and conservatives - I just think he might be a few cycles too early to run the campaign on UBI/Automation. I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't get the nomination if he runs again in say 8-12 years or whenever the next Republican incumbent is up for reelection and has more success if he stays in politics

On the point of 'intersectional credibility' the VP's purpose is to appeal to a particular part of the base the nominee isn't appealing to so they can act as a campaign surrogate. For Trump, Pence shores up support with evangelicals who don't like that he's clearly not religious/a womaniser/crass etc etc

Kaine doesn't do anything for Hillary other than 'win Virginia' which isn't really a swing state anymore anyway

If the nominee is Warren, the VP is probably going to be a moderate black or Hispanic person to appeal to that base and probably male. Someone like Andrew Gillum or Julian Castro depending whether her tactic is to make a play for Florida, or do better in the sunbelt in Arizona/Texas etc - Castro would make sense there.

If it's Bernie, a woman of colour would make sense. Kamala doesn't fit with him ideologically, Stacey Abrams makes a lot of sense

For Biden, it HAS to be a progressive icon to turn out the base. I see no universe in which it can be Warren or Bernie, they wouldn't agree to it and they'll be on record attacking each other. Biden's already trusted by the black community due to his links with Obama, so probably a young progressive hispanic woman who speaks fluent spanish would make the most sense. Basically, someone like AOC who isn't AOC and is ideally from either the midwest or sun belt or Florida.

For Pete he'd probably want a Stacey Abrams type as well, or someone like Michelle Obama not that she'd want to be someone's VP.

If Yang got the nomination I really have no idea who would be ideal other than 'not Tulsi Gabbard' there are some weird YangGang people out there who love Tulsi as well and rant on and on about a Yang/Gabbard ticket on twitter but she's an absolute nightmare to the base (including me). I feel like he'd probably want a young progressive woman, someone ideologically like Warren but more of an unknown figure to the general public.

This is turning into a boring essay rant type post but on the point of conservative empathy, in my experience moderate conservatives show a lot of empathy but MAGA-authoritarian types have very little empathy and if they do it's only for people of their general racial/religious group or economic status.

Have a think about it Cody; how many women of colour who aren't wealthy have you interacted with and what are their views on what policies are good for minorities? I'm guessing your social circle being I assume a younger white male who posts on a poker form is highly libertarian leaning-right wing young white guys. A lot of my close friends fall into that category (i'm not friends with anyone who is authoritarian-right wing, but have some relatives etc who are) and most of the rest are liberal or left-libertarian (i'd personally identify as a left-libertarian)

The poker/sports betting community as a whole here has three main voices - we're mostly young-ish white men of above average intelligence, and there are a ton of liberals, left-libertarians and right-libertarians but very few Authoritarian right type people who are legitimate Trump MAGA fans. Just take a look at unstuckpolitics which used to be the politics forum here - it's a mixture of left-libertarians and liberals, with a small amount of libertarian right

Fox News defines what it means to be a conservative for most of the voter base, the average voter is way, way less engaged than anyone who is reading this thread. A decent chunk of the public wouldn't be able to recognise Mike Pence or Mitch McConnell, let along Andrew Yang or Julian Castro. It's just way too early in the campaign to make real assumptions about anything for the 2020 cycle until we know the nominee. The only assumption that holds true is Trump's base will never abandon him, but Trump also fires up Democrats to vote so by default it's likely to be a high turnout election unless they nominate a historically unpopular nominee among the base.

Trump is going to be unpopular regardless but with a dedicated base who will turn up, the Dems two likely nominees imo (Warren and Biden in that order) have two different paths to victory - for Warren it's engage the electorate and have a huge turnout election by running a positive campaign on big ideas while letting others attack Trump, who people have already made up their mind about and she should win even if she's widely offputting to moderates if the turnout is high enough. If turnout is too low, Trump will win.

For Biden it's take the Rust Belt back from Trump at all costs and nominate a VP who will minimise how depressed the youth and hispanic turnout will be.

Warren has a turnout edge over Biden because she fires up the base, but Biden will have an easier time winning the 'center'. I still think fire up the base is the way to go in 2020 because Ds will almost always win a record high turnout election and it's so hard for this to be a low turnout election with Trump on the ballot and the only way it can happen is have the progressive base be disillusioned in their nominee, but there is a case to be made the other way.

I am going to have to disagree with you on this one

probably because white people are the only group that votes closest to 50/50 whereas everyone else just wants free stuff

also swoop I thought you lived in Australia?

Why do minorities need help? How arrogant do you have to be to believe that everyone needs your help?

I do live in Aus currently but i'm a dual citizen with American citizenship since birth (one of my parents is American and the other Australian).

I have a worthless polsci degree from before I became a full time gambler and I do follow US politics more closely than prob 99% of Americans

Technically a registered voter in Florida as that was my last permanent US address although i've spend more time in Nevada since and plan to update it at some point when i'm actually in Vegas and have a condo for the summer or whatever

I went to school in Colorado for a while as a kid when my family was in Breckenridge although i've spent most of my life in Australia - have spent small amounts of time in the US as an adult maybe a year or two in total in 3 month blocks. I do identify primarily as Australian since I spend most of my time here, but I am an American citizen as well and I do care about the state of the country, have American friends and family, etc.

Cody - as Like said, no, most conservatives do not believe that, some moderates might but a huge percentage of American conservatives vote for conservative politicians specifically because their policy platform harms certain minority groups, whether that's people who are LGBT or hispanic or black or whatever else, Republican policies certainly aren't friendly to any of those groups.

So you continuously make sweeping statements like this about people you don't even see/talk to?

The only thing holding people back in western countries are themselves. Take it from someone who grew up in the shittiest parts of Melbourne. Anyone with even an ounce of talent can be successful regardless of background.

I had a much longer post written out but instead of essaying i'll just say go ask a few dozen black, hispanic and LGBT Americans whether they think conservatives have their best interests in mind. I'll wait. I literally have mixed-race American cousins who live in the south, I lived with a gay couple for a few years etc and know a ton of LGBT people because of that so while I probably don't have as much experience socializing with low income minorities as people who live in a random american city it's not like i'm basing this on nothing.

Hint; they know who has their best interest in mind better than a random upper-middle class straight white dude (which describes most of us that post here) and it's not Republicans

The crazy thing is on social issues, many hispanic and black people are actually socially conservative but they won't vote for a party that actively works against their interests.

Anyway back to the topic of the thread fading Hillary and Bloomberg is super free money, that is all. I mean, fading Klobuchar etc is free money too, but why take that at 3c when Bloomberg has even less equity at 7-10 or whatever hes trading at now. Absolutely ridiculous he got to double digits. He could announce a 500 million dollar ad buy today and still not be 10% to get the Democratic nomination

Hey Swoop, I know you are retiring from posting in other threads due to recent events but would you keep posting here? I am enjoying our chats.

I always intended to keep posting here I just meant i'm not going to post in the low content thread and respond to Thremp's troll bait any more because there's no point to any of it.

I will get some skin in the game at some point in 2020 and take some positions (I personally think Warren is back to slightly undervalued in the high 20s atm and obv fade all the ******ed Qanon stuff and Bloomberg and Hillary and Tulsi to be D nom)

We can fade Deval Patrick if he gets in late too and gets above a few percent. It's going to be Warren or Biden with a super slim chance of Bernie/Buttigieg/Yang at this point. Kamala had a real shot at it but messed it up. Tulsi is also a super easy fade at any number above zero. The only people who like her are Republicans or Russians or Jill Stein fans

Boy this thread sure does oscillate. One guy thinks people vote R in order to help minorities (which is somehow not even the second most ridiculous thing he said in here) and you think people vote R specifically to hurt them. I dont think either of you are right but its interesting to see how confident you guys are in your opinions.

What's important to you this election cycle?

[ ] making sure there is a strong economy so that I can retain my job and maybe get a raise
[ ] keeping my lifestyle affordable so that I can retire some day
[ ] securing a bright future for my child, including better schools and affordable universities
[ ] social and moral policies which will teach my child good values and protect him from degeneracy
[ ] having access to quality, affordable medical care for me and my family
[ ] cutting wasteful government spending so that I can keep more of my money
[ ] projecting a more positive role for American influence in the world
[ ] better care for the elderly, disabled, and veterans, some of whom are in my family
[x] ****ing over blacks and mexicans

some men just want to watch the world burn.

^^I actually dont doubt that some real, living in a 'holler' hillbillies actually do think like that. But a "huge percentage" is absurd

Yeah but it's not like the entire Republican coalition is hillbillies, they certainly are a part of it but you can't define the entire party like that. If you got out and talked with these types I think you would be surprised.

thats literally exactly what I said dude

Talk to a % of the hill billies then, I think you would be very surprised. This is a demographic I am very familiar with.

So then why do a lot of white people feel the need to tell them what they want?

It is crazy ain't it. They rather vote for someone who will let their friends/family come in with no consequences and receive free stuff rather than the person they identify with. You find no problems with this?