Let’s see yours sweet cheeks.


But muh polls!!

This ones for my bestie Euro friend lover of Biden:

https://twitter.com/donaldjtrumpjr/s...98148351651841

To be fair, even if those were the real numbers, its obviously not optimal to bet full kelly on each of 20 simultaneous highly correlated events.

that is just PI

i have 300k bet on this election in total

Ooh you’re also playing the house / senate? Legit question, how are you not broke over the years following 538 and co?

Who are you whb?
Ivr's evil twin brother?

You don't have anything constructive to say. Just keep tf quiet.

I mean they're real in the sense that if you go to their websites those are the odds. If we don't want to bet highly correlated events (which why would say Biden in New Hampshire and Biden in Nevada be highly correlated?) which do we choose?

Do we go with 57.11% of our bankroll backing Biden in Pennsylvania? (or 85.75% if we go with The Economist)

Or do we play it safe and put 65.39% or 88.45% on Biden to just win?

Regardless, there is a serious disconnect between the people who have money involved vs. the people who collect a paycheck regardless of what happens. It's going to be interesting to see come next Wednesday.

Idk if this forum even has mods, but if they do, I would consider booting this whb dolt to the sun or at least issuing a warning. Adults are trying to have discussion here, many of them are wagering 6 figures on this election. Your endless South Park meme spamming is making following the conversation harder. I'm all for some comic relief every now and then but it's really tiresome when 50% of the conversation is your posts with 0 content.

Onto actual stuff: This is probably nothing, but I thought it'd be better to ask. Apparently there's been some heavy riots and looting in Philly over the last couple of nights, and Pennsylvania is so important to the result of this election that it makes sense to pay attention to everything going on in there.

So admittedly my understanding of US political issues at state/district level is very limited, but here I was thinking "okay cool that's good for Biden, the more there are riots, the more people want that to stop, and it all started on Trump's watch, so let's vote for change". But some sharps who've been betting on Biden, notably EM2, have been touting the opposite view, which rings some alarm bells.

I get that maybe the overall sentiment is that the protesters are democrat-oriented and the side of "law and order" is republican-oriented. But like c'mon this has all happened on Trump's watch so either way wouldn't the logical way to get rid of rioting be, you know, to elect a non-polarizing president? Why would anyone (at least outside of those who are voting Trump anyway no matter what) be thinking that rioting is going to stop if Trump gets another 4 years?

So what do you guys think, is there any chance this has a meaningful effect on the remaining PA voting, and if it does, are we sure it's +Trump and not +Biden?

You know it wasn't me who posted the South Park image right?

But for the one below I take full credit. Is this how you feel?

You're assuming a rational thought process. Voters see Biden and other Democrats trying to understand the causes of the civil unrest, while Trump speaks of crushing them. If you're scared for the safety of your home and family, which one appeals to you? Fear is a super strong motivator. Trump has always understood this and why, if he wins, his campaign will be the magnus opus of strongmen everywhere. He will have successfully made enough people more afraid of small pockets of violence they'll never see in person, than of a global pandemic that kills everywhere, but nowhere more so than the USA.

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2+2 being super slow but this is meant for whb two posts above, quote button crashes my 2p2

Oops sorry. Either way, you're spamming the thread and you should at the very least try to include some content in your posts. And preferably limit the amount of them.

The markets haven't made any sense in months, but yes that's almost exactly how I feel. Difference being that not only is there no indication of tightening, there is indication of a total bloodbath. Georgia skewing towards Biden now, and even though I'm not going to believe Georgia actually voting blue until I see it (I do have some state bets on exactly that happening tho at +250), the fact that it's even close paints a pretty clear picture of how Trump is doing. We're long past the point where it's significantly more likely that Biden wins ****ing Texas than Trump wins the election. Let that sink in.

No clue who that fella is. Look at my more constructive posts where I was mentioning things like the housing market etc but then i realized all i got in return was "hurr durr polls are so extreme for Biden even if they are wrong, they are still correct!!"

Why is Biden doing PA rallies that are 20 minutes from his basement ?

Skeptical part of my brain says DNC and AOC wing wants Biden to lose to shake off the current Nancy faction for good.

For supporting evidence: AOC stating in the DNC conference she supports Comrade Bernie causing some ruckus. Talk about a fractured convention / primary.

For record an incumbent with a unified party like Trump has yet to lose in recent memory.

What point do you think you’re making here?

LOL what trash is this ?

The "strongmen" could easily come in and crush the soyboys dressed in black who cause havoc and allow the opportunists to loot. But that hasn't happened.

This is the same rhetoric thats causing the divisiveness we've seen: "hey Trump is a Nazi, we've ALL SEEN IT. Look at him! Axis of Evill!!!"

Meanwhile all the soyboys dressed in black, LARPing as the young men/women signing up to fight the Japs/Germany. While in reality those soyboys would be the ones trying to hide from the draft.

Don't bring in that poor logic here. Enough with the "But muh polls!!" crowd. Also, go eat some steak and get some sun.

For the record an incumbent has yet to win a second term with a negative approval rating. Bush jr was +4 and he barely won. Trump is -11.

"But polls are wrong"

Here's a nice table where you can see what happens if the polls *are* wrong. Personally I'm expecting something more like the 2012 column with all the shy Biden voters. If you want to believe in 2016 happening again, I think that's pretty delusional but ok. Unfortunately, Trump still loses tho and you made a terrible bet at TERRIBLE odds.

Sorry I still can't get multiquote to work, this was FRGCardinal. Fair post, thanks! Follow-up question though: For folks in Pennsylvania, do you see *these recent riots from the last 2 days* having an effect on how they vote? Because given all the rioting and looting over the last few months, you'd think that mostly how people view them would already be included in the polls. But is this new stuff by any chance dramatic enough to actually have people en masse sway their opinion from Biden towards Trump because of the effect you mentioned? Or is this more like a drop in a bucket in a long list of riots and unlikely to magnify the effect that the riots have already had over the summer?

I just meant that if they knew those were the true probabilities (obviously never happens outside of casino games), then there are ways to account for all of those bets being correlated.

I really can't tell if you are just being devil's advocate or what about this noncorrelation thing. If not, want to book a parlay on Biden on any combination of battleground states at market odds?

Lets see that data! All the approval ratings for Trump and the Gallup questions have Trump higher than any president.

you think that in this era of unprecedented partisanship, that trump has the highest approval ratings ever?

Amazing rebuttal.
So, you're more afraid of COVID than riots? Or was I correct that Trump voters are generally more fearful of riots than COVID?

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hahahahahahahahahhdfgdfhdfhjkl

This explains a lot

No I'm just trying to figure out what's the magnitude of these last two days of rioting in PA if you're a PA voter.

I'm not trying to argue that rioting could be of more importance to voters than covid. All I'm saying is, the riots started in what, april or may? And there's been a lot of rioting around the rust belt, right? So you'd think that in 6 months of polling, the effect of those riots on how people are going to vote would already show. If they think that the riots are the #1 issue and they want to vote on Trump to make them stop, they vote Trump. All I'm trying to figure out is if this latest Philly thing is major enough that it would tip the scales to some extent -- if any of the previous rioting hasn't made you vote Trump, are these last two days of rioting going to change your mind?

Chuck I would think in the general publics eyes, rioting/looting would look bad for biden/good for trump ironically. "he's the law and order president" is i feel about as in depth as the average layman is thinking about that.

I don't think it changes much at this point barring some sort of major city destruction.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-ratings

This is becoming quite an emotional thread for a sports betting forum.

Trump wins if he holds Florida, PA, North Carolina and Arizona, with the Pennsylvania being the toughest. Trump +175 seems a little short but not by that much.

You're looking at it the wrong way. The rioters are leftists and they will not stop rioting until their handlers tell them to stop. They are destroying property belonging to innocent on-lookers and are forcing them to submit to their politics. There's no way you can say that civilian deaths at the hands of police are a result of cops carrying out a Trump directive or whatever, particularly since these riots were happening in 2015 when the BLM movement first emerged while Obama was president. BLM itself is extremely polarizing. I get that leftists (and even more moderate people) are still adamant about blaming all this on Trump because he's a lightning rod but that doesn't make it any less absurd from my standpoint.

Unfortunately as a conservative myself I don't think this has had a serious impact on the polls. All the destruction caused by these morons in Minneapolis, Kenosha and Portland (among other places) hasn't exactly helped Trump in the polls much (not that Oregon was ever going to be in play, but Wisconsin and Minnesota could be). Dems are at the point where they kind of want calm on the streets because the George Floyd/BLM bloom was off the rose quite a while ago after very strong non-partisan support initially. So I guess to conclude, I think the rioting has a fairly neutral impact on the polls at this point, and if EM2 wants to claim that these new riots will give Trump a bit of a helping hand in Pennsylvania then I'm not going to argue, but I don't think it'll be that substantial of a push.