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Old 08-01-2019, 08:26 AM   #1
HolidayInTheSun
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2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Compared to the 2016 US presidential election betting thread, we are under budget and ahead of schedule. Not by too much though. I needed a little time to Clorox the forum first.

What are the best places on the internet for those who would like to tie up money for a long time at low returns with questionable organisations? Will the memes be able to compare to 2016? Discuss here.
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Old 08-01-2019, 10:39 AM   #2
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

predictit is best for americans. it's actually legal and regulated because somehow political betting is considered a futures contract by the commodity futures trading commission. you'll want to get your credit card rewards game in shape to mitigate their high deposit/withdrawal fees. betfair is best for non-americans. there are crypto sites that claim to offer prediction contracts with tiny volume and low liquidity.

weekly blog reading
Predicting Politics

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How to Make Money from Political Predictions: A Guide to Generating High, Steady Returns on PredictIt

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twoplustwo politics forum betting thread
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Old 08-01-2019, 12:55 PM   #3
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Trump loses
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Old 08-01-2019, 04:04 PM   #4
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

A couple months ago I got short a bunch of the longshots for the Dem nomination. It started because Andrew Yang was at 10% (lol -- he's still at 8%), which is the free-est of money, and then once my collateral was tied up, why not short Hillary at 2%, Gabbard at 3, Castro at 4, Beto at 7, Klobuchar at 4, Booker at 5, etc etc. Also shorted Bernie at 20, which may be more controversial.

And I'm short James Comey getting charged with a federal crime before end of year. That's still trading at 13, despite news out today that the DOJ will not prosecute for his leaked memo thing. I guess Trumpy conspiracists think there's something else coming?

The Comey bet and the Yang short illustrate the general principle of making money betting on politics: find markets that are distorted because people with irrationally strong political beliefs bet that their side is going to win. Most often this manifests itself as the general rule that you should bet against all Libertarians everywhere, but this year it's spilling over to the more conventional sides.
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Old 08-01-2019, 05:00 PM   #5
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

the classic fade your uncle in-law's facebook feed angle

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Old 08-01-2019, 05:05 PM   #6
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Most often this manifests itself as the general rule that you should bet against all Libertarians everywhere, but this year it's spilling over to the more conventional sides.
lul not a single Libertarian was on Clinton to win in 2016. that was your embarrassment, liberals of 2+2

edit: ok i think i misunderstood your post, sorry! yes, bet against just about any libertarian politician running
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Old 08-01-2019, 11:25 PM   #7
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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lul not a single Libertarian was on Clinton to win in 2016. that was your embarrassment, liberals of 2+2

edit: ok i think i misunderstood your post, sorry! yes, bet against just about any libertarian politician running
Yeah, I'm referring more to how Ron Paul and Rand Paul both traded over 10% chance to be president at different points, which, again, is the free-est of money. Libertarians have tended to be strongly overrepresented on prediction markets, so their favored candidates' prices get pushed to absurd levels. The Yang phenomenon is the same thing, just Techno-Utopians replacing Libertarians.
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Old 08-02-2019, 03:37 AM   #8
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

The dem field is absolutely tragic. Biden, Harris and Warren make Hillary look exciting and fresh. Doesn't help that with the way their system works it's basically impossible for anyone outside the big 3 to win the Dem nomination. Regardless of who gets it the Dems will be very divided and there will probably be pretty big apathy in their base come 2020.

On the other hand Trump has failed to deliver to his core voters in every regard. Didn't deliver on the wall, didn't deliver on immigration, didn't deliver for the working class. We won't see a repeat of the midwest surge and states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are almost certainly going back blue. Apathy will probably be the right word to describe Trump's base as well.

All in all it will probably be a historically low turnout with an edge for the Dem candidate.
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Old 08-02-2019, 10:57 AM   #9
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Apathetic? On either side? Do you go outside, or watch TV, or use the internet? People may not love their candidate, but they're going to absolutely hate the other side.

I don't know who's going to win, but it'll be historically high turnout.
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Old 08-02-2019, 02:04 PM   #10
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Yeah, I'm referring more to how Ron Paul and Rand Paul both traded over 10% chance to be president at different points, which, again, is the free-est of money. Libertarians have tended to be strongly overrepresented on prediction markets, so their favored candidates' prices get pushed to absurd levels. The Yang phenomenon is the same thing, just Techno-Utopians replacing Libertarians.
thats very interesting, thank you
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Old 08-02-2019, 02:05 PM   #11
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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The dem field is absolutely tragic. Biden, Harris and Warren make Hillary look exciting and fresh. Doesn't help that with the way their system works it's basically impossible for anyone outside the big 3 to win the Dem nomination. Regardless of who gets it the Dems will be very divided and there will probably be pretty big apathy in their base come 2020.

On the other hand Trump has failed to deliver to his core voters in every regard. Didn't deliver on the wall, didn't deliver on immigration, didn't deliver for the working class. We won't see a repeat of the midwest surge and states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are almost certainly going back blue. Apathy will probably be the right word to describe Trump's base as well.

All in all it will probably be a historically low turnout with an edge for the Dem candidate.

ummm wat? Are you not in the US?

edit: can I bet against a historically low turnout?
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Old 08-02-2019, 08:08 PM   #12
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

im willing to bet 22k on trump
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Old 08-03-2019, 12:28 AM   #13
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

political betting threads. it took just 12 posts for someone to throw out a 22k challenge bet.
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Old 08-03-2019, 12:36 AM   #14
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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It started because Andrew Yang was at 10% (lol -- he's still at 8%), which is the free-est of money
you like Yang at 10% or you calling this a short? not sure what you're saying. i know absolutely nothing other than yang seems pro-crypto so i like him.
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Old 08-03-2019, 01:08 AM   #15
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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you like Yang at 10% or you calling this a short? not sure what you're saying. i know absolutely nothing other than yang seems pro-crypto so i like him.
He's calling it an easy short. Which it is.
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Old 08-03-2019, 12:35 PM   #16
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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He's calling it an easy short. Which it is.
It's a freeroll anyway. Yang wins and you will be cashing dem sweet freedom dividend checks.
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Old 08-03-2019, 02:15 PM   #17
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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It's a freeroll anyway. Yang wins and you will be cashing dem sweet freedom dividend checks.
Fake news. I'm not American.
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Old 08-03-2019, 03:33 PM   #18
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

ah, incoming 2+2'ers talking politics

i'll be interested in any lines posted and gambling-related information such as news on Augur v2
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Old 08-03-2019, 05:57 PM   #19
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Does Tulsi Gabbard fall under bet against all Libertarians everywhere theorem?
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Old 08-03-2019, 06:14 PM   #20
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I actually like shorting Yang at 8%... if it was actually 8%. Doesn't preddict take like 5% of every cashout + a % of winnings. What does that even net to.. 1-2%?
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Old 08-03-2019, 06:15 PM   #21
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Does Tulsi Gabbard fall under bet against all Libertarians everywhere theorem?
These are all good shorts depending on Preddict's fees, which make them substantially worse.
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Old 08-03-2019, 06:18 PM   #22
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Yes high fees. Sign up with a bunch of new high bonus credit cards and deposit with them. Don't cashout after every bet. Only bet easy winners. Might as well get paid for being politically informed citizens CodythePATRIOT
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Old 08-04-2019, 12:26 PM   #23
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I still cant get over the 'historically low turn out' post
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Old 08-04-2019, 12:57 PM   #24
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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I still cant get over the 'historically low turn out' post
I nearly posted the same thing. If there's one record 2020 isn't going to break it's 'historically low turnout'.
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Old 08-04-2019, 01:17 PM   #25
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Swoop, I seem to recall you posting a lot in the past election thread, and I think you were even getting involved in the state primary markets. How'd you fare, both ROI-wise and profit-wise? Was it worth your time?
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