You should see the Qanon narrative where Trump gets the National Guard/Army and takes over/steals over the election with a coup

Agree. But he won't bet. Not even whb has popped over ITT lately to spew his dreamy-far-right-narrative, so you do you actually think a coward like ivr will actually backup his trolling with actual $$$

I've at no point tried to, nor will I try to refute any of your points regarding politics because you only see what you want to see and are far removed from reality.

If you want to bet on anything, I'll be happy to, but I'm not getting into a back and forth with you about anything beyond calling you out for being an idiot because I feel bad for people on the internet who post with well intentions who have the displeasure of engaging with you. (My lack of self control in this regard is embarrassing)

I don't think you actually can afford to bet on anything though. You're dumb but like to be right. It's pretty likely you've already lost loads betting on things already, even if not this election. If I'm wrong about this, LET'S BET

A bit of a derail but does anyone have thoughts on the Ny Mayoral race? Yang is -200 as a no on Bodog and that seems about right and I don't see much value there. Anybody have any thoughts?

The MLK Jr endorsement should help. I like Yang and hope he wins but don't have any real insight into his chances in the NYC mayoral race

Trump is on office because there is a concentrated effort by all of corporate america + media to shut down anyone conservative/white

just look at how it's playing out right now

literally every single corporation has denounced the riots and "white supremacy" in unison lol while praising the riots and burning of cities

every single person that went there is getting doxxed and their jobs lost even if you were outside the capital and not inside...even family members are exposing them and being praised for it

trumps memoirs are being banned from being published while being compared to mein kampf

every single outlet is saying this was a vote against white supremacy and that all Trump supporters are racist

When every single billion dollar corporation is working in unison to remove someone voted in by the people then just lol@u thinking you're the "resistance"

we have the left celebrating things that they would have never agreed to 4 years ago because it goes against Trump **** is baffling

I see you the same way but only one of us tries lol

lol you are the only person so far going back and forth with me and looking at my post history in other sections of this forum


ok believe what you want lol I'm poor and stupid..are you happy now?

idk why I would bet with some random on a forum to prove what? to prove that my views are correct? what would it prove exactly?

this started with me saying that this won't stop with trump and you have somehow managed to make it into a dick swinging contest

you let this stuff get to you lol

Are you literally talking to yourself on a message board?

On PI, I'm maxed on McConnell voting "No" in the Senate trial.

The idea that McConnell might vote to convict seems like a liberal media fantasy, albeit a fantasy that McConnell himself is promoting.

I think McConnell is pushing the idea that conviction is a serious threat because he doesn't want Trump doing anything to further damage the GOP brand, like self-pardoning or promoting violence on Gab.

But if Trump manages to avoid doing anything exceptionally stupid before the trial, I can't see McConnell voting to convict. McConnell has no principles, and I just don't see how he will conclude that it is politically advantageous for the Senate to convict.

The main risk imo is that Trump will do something so stupid that it changes the political calculus for McConnell.

Money sent to resolve this bet.

Received, thanks

does anyone think there's gonna be a free money situation like betting on biden in mid november and december ever again

can the left invent their own qanon plz

I don't think I've ever seen McConnell promote something and then vote the other way. I think he sees Trump as a dangerous nuisance at this point and is willing to vote him out of the party.

I think he saw that on "insurrection day" the middle right distancing itself from the far right. He saw his party potentially getting splintered and the best way to solve that problem is to remove Trump from the equation.

I can see McConnell voting to convict if there are enough other Republican Senators to get to a two-thirds majority, but would be surprised if he did so otherwise. He isn't really one for symbolic votes against interest.

I could see a handful of R's saying yeah Trump deserves to be convicted but end up voting no claiming some technicality that they don't have constitutional standing to convict a non-seated president. It would let them play both sides. But I am a horrible political bettor and am actively trying not to bet my opinions.

I've bought no on Yang because he is a non-traditional celebrity candidate and much more popular on the internet than among voters.

I would think 0 repubs will vote to convict him and many dems won't convict him either. When you have cory booker, maxine waters and a lot more dems openly encouraging political violence last year and pelosi and others claiming the 2016 election was stolen I think they will get nervous that the nearly impossible happens and the mob starts treating repubs and dems the same. They can't risk their political futures because they want to kick a president out of office who is already out of the office.

If anyone is interested in betting that trump will be kicked out of office in the next couple months I am interested in betting against it.

TRUMP!

this bet (from april!) has been paid out

i'm all square in the thread

Ok, so I am sure I'm not the only one who's seen this rumor. Whether it be via the 25th amendment, or some other nefarious way, President Biden is forced out and Kamala Harris becomes president. I'm already seeing Trump loyalists offering betting lines on when this happens. At this point, it's a nonissue, right? This can't happen anytime soon, and frankly I don't think it ever happens. That said, nothing is impossible. What's a good over/under to appease the trump loyalists and still have a favorable wager? I'm thinking end of year? Just curious if anyone else is seeing this yet and what your thoughts are.

It isn't crazy at all to not expect him to make it 4 years.

He's obviously a fav to serve out his term and a huge fav to serve a year if the Qanon people think Trump is coming back or Hillary or Kamala or whatever

Personally I think there is value at like +500 or whatever thats available on Biden winning the 2024 election if his first term goes well he runs for a second term at least half the time, and is likely a fav to win if he oversees a recovery and is in reasonable health. He'll be about the age McCain was when he died, but with less health issues unless he develops them

please define terms and set a line on this happy to wager on it

define many dems, happy to take unders if the line and price is good (happy for you to set lines on stuff like u0.5 Ds vote to acquit, u1.5, u2.5, u9.5 or whatever u want obviously the fair line is vastly different for under 0.5 to under 9.5 or whatever)

set a line on 0 republican votes to convict in senate too while we're at it curious what price you'll offer on over 0.5 R votes in senate to convict etc (all wagers dependent on a senate trial and vote occurring/void if it doesn't happen)

interested in some other numbers too but 0.5 is very interesting curious what your price is

obv I don't think Trump gets convicted with a 50-50 senate, and I do expect a very partisan vote, but happy to wager on defections from the party line on either side etc if you offer me a good line

The life expectancy of a man his age is 9.5 years and considering how stressful his job is I would probably take the under. It must be noted that he may have some cognitive issues, but he's also going to get the best care available in the world should any issues come up.

Betting on politics is one thing. Betting on the ethics of a politician is a whole other.

He offered me April 15, 2021. If Biden is still President, I win. If Harris or anyone else is President, he wins. I snap accepted. I had planned to offer longer but I wasn't arguing. His thought is if Biden is forced out, it will be sooner rather than later. He is all about the 25th amendment conspiracy.