Yeah the nation is polarised enough all of the -5000 stuff is a lock this cycle pretty much states like cali hawaii etc

even Oklahoma or w/e for Trump but i'd rather take the D locks in case of insane landslide the other way but even then OK ID etc is all safe R

Agreed booked. This year I’ve begun to take hints and tells more at face value. So when CNN says they are worried about the black vote going for Trump, then they REALLY are going for Trump. Guess we’ll see.

Yep we'll see, glgl

Side not not quite related to thread but 2/2 for my politics bets today in my state election in Aus

Still counting but w 20% in it's super clear its a landslide for the side I bet and in the house of reps seat I took for them to win

Much smaller bets than the US election though

Points in favor for Trump.

1. Even with Covid, 55% of Americans think they are better of economically than they were 4 years ago. And 54% of Americans approve of Trump when it comes to the economy. (Sep 2020, Gallup)

2. Biden is not a strong candidate. He's not a great public speaker, prone to gaffes, and its to argue hes on the decline. Again, Gallup has Biden with a -4 favorability rating.

3. Trump has a path to victory via FL and PN.

Florida 1 - Polling underestimated Republicans in 2016, and again in the 2018 midterms. The current polls have even a smaller edge for Biden this time around, and its not difficult to believe Trump is favored there. Pollsters do still seem to have difficulty in FL, particularly with a large Cuban and Venezuelan population that is 58% republican and continues to get more red.

Florida 2 - Turnout in FL is typically higher than the national average, so there is less ground for the Dems to make up.

PN - Recent rioting in Philly

Polling does not have Trump closer than 2016, that is factually incorrect

He could still win, but he is further behind than he was against Clinton a couple days out after the Comey letter etc

Donald Trump is running against the Virus and it appears that the Virus is winning.

It’s odd for somebody who dosent take polls as credible but takes CNN saying they’re worried African Americans are voting for trump.

Many news outlets are going to want this to be a horse race so viewers turn in.

Is there any compelling reason as to why Lindsey Graham at -386 is a bad price? Holds the senate in a highly Republican state which hasn't flipped since 1992. Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee which is more esteemed than an average senator, and leading significantly in all the polls that the dems in this thread weigh on so heavily with Biden. I dunno, I bet the max for the hell of it bc it seemed good and bookmaker laughed at me and didn't move the line.

Dunno who you are responding to, but I was comparing the polls of the 2018 midterms to the current polls in Florida.

He should win but -386 is meh given he's widely hated on both sides, Lou Dobbs told his base on Fox News not to vote for him and the polling has been close

I fully expect Graham to win, but if we see the Trump loses GA, IA, etc type scenario its close and if we get to the Trump loses TX scenario where SC is only Trump +4 or whatever Graham will lose

Don't get me wrong I fully expect Graham to win, but not lining up to bet him at -386 price seems about right - if there's a polling error in Biden's favour Graham loses a ton etc obv that's usually not the case but it's within the realms of possible

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp20...-carolina.html

I expect Graham wins 52-48 or something on average but i'm not sure it's worthy of -386

Hard to compare midterms to presidential cycles such a hugely diff portion of the electorate, less low info voters, far lower turnout even in high turnout midterms like 2018 etc

2016 would probably be a better comparison point I would assume

I'd figure Rs exceed expectations in Fl more often than not due to controlling the governorship etc in the event it's close + last couple cycles polls missed in Rs favour, but it's far from guaranteed especially given the overall high turnout levels this cycle

538 has Graham winning 77%, which is basically -386.

Graham's approval rating in SC is lower than Trump's. Harrison has raised $86m, inc a record $57m in the final quarter.

Graham is facing a lot of pushback from the right, I can't see a lot of trump voters choosing to vote for Harrison. Maybe the constitution party candidate can take a few % (Smart play by Harrison to push for it). But ultimately, Trump will probably win SC by 8-10 points. That's a lot of room to make up in an inelastic state that doesn't do a lot of ticket splitting.

When I weighed in earlier, the data I found showed that Trump's support among black women was 4%, and closer to 15% for men. But black women voted in far greater numbers than men. To reach 15% overall, he needs a big surge in black women, or a veritable tidal wave of black men to flood towards the candidate who, in the last 4 years, has called black athletes protesting police brutality against black people "sons of bitches." Call me crazy but that seems like a pretty big lift.

Honestly I hope either Biden wins and I lose my bet, or Trump absolutely crushes EVERYONE who bet against him. Literally winning Cali, Massachusetts, Colorado, states he was supposed to have no chance in. Winning electoral college by a 300 vote MARGIN, crushing that guy who was hammering NO at -1200, etc. Let's just have a bloodbath either way, boys.

I'd still be super happy, as gas prices won't go to $8 a gallon for my family, and the world will have some semblance of security at least.

Right, the notoriously corrupt country of....*squints* America.

I think you're getting it in good at that price. I'd guess Harrison pulls the upset under 10% of the time. Maybe you lose if every Republican waited until Tuesday to vote and, on that very day, a hurricane slammed the state. And even then it'd be close.

Good luck.

Does any bookie offer handicap bets for states? Or can anyone remember if this has previously been a thing?

I think mybookie does.
Lmk if you need a link.

Contemplating betting on trump to take AZ. He’s ahead by .7% on realclearpolitics but slightly behind everywhere else. My friend lives in az and says there’s almost all trump signs. Thoughts? It’s +100

what lines are available in vegas on this election? and what are limits?

zero and zero

So far more people have voted already in Texas than in 2016. I don't know what that bmeans. Any thoughts?

If the polls are correct (for example, fivethirtyeight has Biden @90%), then the no-vig line would be -900, so why is it around -175? Is this a windmill slam dunk or am I missing something?

Regarding Texas turnout, Nobody rly knows, but it’s obv not good for republicans cause more variance is bad in a state they had a stranglehold in. Don’t rly see biden winning even now, but it’s at least interesting for the dems

Buddy,welcome to this thread