I'm from Europe and I can assure you that the "riots" against lockdowns are massively overplayed in the media. I don't have a strong opinion of how exactly covid should be handled (I'd guess that GTO is something along the lines of avoiding mass spread events but keeping every business like small restaurants etc as open as possible), but either way, in every single survey since forever Americans are saying

1) Their #1 reason behind who they vote for is covid response

2) They are overwhelmingly unhappy with Trump's covid response

So while I think the way you think is somewhat correct, and I'm sure there are TON of Americans who are tired of shutdowns etc etc, the majority of them are still unhappy with how Trump's handled it as per polls, and there have been a lot of them. I'm not too optimistic about what Biden will do either, fwiw, but in every poll people are much more confident in his ability to solve the crisis than they are in Trump's. So I wouldn't be so sure that Biden's doom and gloomery is going to make people vote for Trump here. And it's certainly not helping that the US is again registering 1000+ deaths per day conveniently just before the election. That's a big scary number that I'm sure the leftist media will be quoting a lot leading up to election night.

But yeah, I'm really enjoying your posts tbh. One of the big reasons why I'm so big on Biden has been that I've been unable to find many coherent posts about why Trump might win. It's basically always the "but polls are lying! Lol polls 2016!" crowd but you're presenting legit arguments that carry substance. I'm always looking for reasons to hedge my wayyyyy too big bets so happy to read much more of these.

Just one counter-argument though, which I think is pretty fair: If the housing market is on fire, people are happy with their financial situation and how the economy is going, they're tired of covid doom and gloomery, etc etc... why are Trump's approval numbers AND his polls so damn miserable? Why is there seemingly no correlation between how people (supposedly) really feel vs what polls show? It can't really be "shy trump voters" since the polls were looking a lot better for Trump in the spring and they sure weren't shy back then. It really can't be tampered polls either because republican media polls get the same-ish results and Trump has lost a similar amount of votes in republican-leaning states too. Like just to state an obvious example who would've thought in their wildest dreams that it would be possible Biden could win Texas? Yet here he is chasing Trump by only 1 point. There's been an undebiable shift in both his presidential ratings (which are at a record low) and his polls vs Biden (where he's been -9 or worse since forever), and given there's been no fluctuation whatsoever, they can only be so wrong. If people really were happy with him, they would look very different. Of course this doesn't completely eliminate the chance of Trump winning, because technically even if people hated him they could hate Biden more. But that doesn't seem like the case and it's really hard for me to see how Trump would have much more than a 10:1 type of shot here.


This is pure bs tho (also lol Rasmussen). Biden's held 0 rallies. His "rallies" have a limit of like 20 people. They don't let people in because of covid. I suspect this fallacy that could be fact-checked within 15 seconds is probably why so many people are making very bad bets on Trump. The images of crowds chanting TRUMP! TRUMP! when in reality every single person in that audience was voting Trump anyway so they change nothing. Then you see Obama speak at an empty parking lot... "lol they can't even get 100 people to participate". That's not sound logic. Yes Biden is very uninspriring and Trump rallies would appear bigger even without covid. But that has nothing to do with who's going to win the election.

sounds like if biden wins we're going to have a lot of think pieces on the shy biden voter. i am here for it. maybe i'll get interviewed at my local whole foods as i buy my super greens

Quick reply before I jump into a real post with data:

Show any Biden spontaneous rally or grouping of support.

In Miami, where Obama had the “rally”, there is no lockdown/shutdown and life is back to normal save for some people wearing masks but people don’t recoil/stare you down when you don’t wear one. So there goes that argument.

Lookup the Biden “vehicle” rally where like a drive in movie theater, people could come and all be in their own separate car. They had like 20 cars and there were more Trump supporters outside honking against them.

See how you’re coming up with bad excuses? You’re not exactly iron manning these arguments, detach for a second and observe how terrible your reasons are assuming the outcome is a Trump win.

I’d agree if the media and Hollywood wasn’t so brazen about their support

Dude. It takes 10 seconds to google. Obama Florida car event max capacity: 228 cars. Looking at the stream, without counting them I'm pretty sure that the number of cars in there is ~228.

It's the same with every Biden event. I have no idea if this is the best way to approach campaigning, they are certainly going all-in on the covid card and who knows maybe it will backfire. But the only reason there are no people/cars in these rallies is because they are not allowed there in the first place. If you think Obama can't get more than 228 people to show up for his speech then I'm afraid you might have a lot of logical fallacies in your analysis.

Every single Biden event is a social distancing event meaning either ~no crowds allowed at all or a very small number of like 20 people or 200 cars or whatever. Just google it.

Lookup the winning margin of voters in PA last election and then look up the number of new gun buyers in PA. The delta between these two is +100k new gun owners, which were bought during the riots. Guess who they are voting for?

Dems always treat blacks as a single block, and they don’t appeal to them. You’re talking about taxes, and 50 Cent literally said to vote for Trump. Even CNN/MSNBC are reporting that blacks/Hispanics are going for Trump. There’s possible hints that he will pick up somewhere above 15% which would be a record for any Republican in 50 years. Last election Trump got 8% of the vote.

Biden went on Charlamagne’s show and said “if you don’ vote for me you ain’t black”. Chelsea Handler recently commented on 50’s comments by reminding him he is black and therefore owes his votes to Biden, lol wtf? Talk about winning their vote.

Hispanics don’t play this racial game that the libs love to play. Most just want access to a nice economy and don’t see themselves as paired to the black story.


People aren’t dumb, they realize the lockdowns are extreme and COVID isn’t that deadly. Then there’s the promise of the vaccines coming out end of year/spring. Also notice how Trump always positions the China virus as an attack of sorts by our enemy. Look up the elections for leaders in wartime (hint leader stays).

The polls have Biden winning Florida by a significant margin, what if I told you, the Euro looking at polls over the internet, that the reality is different? My family is from Miami, and I recently moved out of Florida, and so I can vouch that those polls are significantly inflated. The whole of the Cuban American community + the Venezuelans have rallied around Trump stronger than in 2016.

Take a look at the Florida numbers for Miami-Dade, which is one of the blue-er counties in the state. It’s already turning slightly pink, and most Republicans will be voting the day of while the Dems already sent their mail ballots.

Don’t forget that the Dems have been brainwashed to believe that going outside is deadly. So why risk showing up in person if Biden is guaranteed to win??

Following up, have you seen the voter registration changes for this election? Democrats have lost and Republicans have surpassed by significant margins this year. JP Morgan’s chief quant did a report on it:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jp...-biden-victory

Boils down to more Republican voters... more Trump votes. Get it?

Lol. So you're betting on a candidate who's so far beyond any plausible margin of error that his victory would require a miracle, the median outcome at this point is like 390-138 and your massive underdog has such a historically low job approval that any comeback attempt will likely end before it even began... but you think that people buying guns in Pennsylvania is going to decide the election? Suuuuuuure.

If you've decided you want to bet on Trump, it's easy to find reasons why. I could list you 500 reasons why to bet on Trump, e.g. he is charismatic and Biden isn't, which is true. But every single one of those reasons is borderline irrelevant compared to all the data we have regarding things that actually matter: 1) Who people are going to vote, 2) How they rate Trump as president. If you're trying to justify your bets to yourself because of stuff like this, it's a pretty reliable indicator you should probably go back to basics, take a quick peek at the numbers, determine who's +EV at current odds (Biden by far), and rethink your strategy.

Yeah this sucks by the dems and I also think that Biden did a supremely poor job at the debate when he was supposed to address black people. No arguments here

Ohhhh okay that changes everything

"Possible hints" okaaaay. You might also want to compare the numbers of blacks/hispanics possibly maybe going slightly less Biden than they went Hillary, which may not even be true, to the numbers of how many whites are going Biden that didn't vote Hillary. This is all included in the polls, both ways. What you linked isn't a revelation, the CNN/MSNBC stories you mentioned are made BASED ON THE SAME POLLS that show Biden +9 nationwide etc. If Biden is losing black votes, it's already included in the polling averages. Again, I think Biden's doing a pretty poor job of convincing blacks to vote for him, but that alone is pretty far from deciding this election.

There are so many groups of hispanics they really shouldn't be lumped into one. The more conservative ones are probably more pro-Trump and the Mexicans for example probably don't like Trump very much for obvious reasons. Seems plausible Trump will lose Arizona exactly because of this yet he might win Florida.

We're talking about American voters here, right? There's no limit to their dumbness

Again, every single poll/study shows people have completely lost faith in Trump handling this crisis. Noone outside of GOP has any faith in him whatsoever and that's not only limited to the lockdowns/no lockdowns discussion.

Fair point. The China virus talk is smart, yes. But the problem is that no one outside of Trump's base actually believes that. Also, you can't have it both ways: Either the virus is a dangerous China virus (in which case the 220k+ deaths looks bad and wtf is he doing talking about easing covid restrictions?) or it's not and America should follow Trump's no covid restrictions policy (in which case who cares where this harmless bug came from). Trump's campaign has clearly chosen to play down covid, so we are pretty damn far from the leaders in wartime scenario.

You aren't the first one to tell me this. What can I say, science over feel?

Yeah I'm honestly expecting Biden to lose Florida. The polls seem very optimistic to me too. If Biden wins Florida, it's probably going to be quite a landslide in the US because it means he's overcome some pretty big difficulties in FL. I don't believe in Biden being +4 there before I see it.


Unlucky for republicans they don't need to show up in person because there's mail voting. Paradoxically one of the reasons this will likely be an easy, safe democrat win is precisely because covid made voting in-person so hard --> they made voting from home easy, so now Bernie bros can keep smoking weed and tick a couple of boxes from the comfort of their own homes rather than wasting a day in the long lines.

I think I already addressed this on last page. Short version is lol JPMorgan. They've been endorsing Trump since day 1 to their clients and only very recently did a complete 180, probably because they realized that it might look pretty bad that they've been getting their rich clients to bet on a losing horse. The whole article is a joke, the effect they are describing is very small.

Dude, your only evidence here is the polls which are right around the same average RCP as they were in 2016.

Im done with this back and forth. You’re providing me no real substance other than “but Nate says with a +9 advantage and 5% error rate...”.

Everything I’ve said is hard evidence. Not some Disney employee calling 500 people offering $20 Chili’s gift cards for a 30 minute questionnaire over the phone.

Im game to wager $5k-$10k on Trump winning at say +140 if you’re so sure. **** I’ll do more if you want. I’m always down for +EV plays.

This is the problem with discussing election betting with Americans (both sides). Too much emotion. Your country is divided, it's impossible to see anything objectively from within. I'd say your arguments for a Trump win were probably the best I've seen which is saying a lot, because they were, overall, very poor.

I guess I shouldn't even bother but since you're making the "it's 2016 again! RCP!" argument here's a very simple way to prove this year is very different.

From 11 swing states:
Votes needed for victory, average: 49.33%
Biden's polling average today: 48.8%
Hillary's polling average: 44.17%
On average, how far is Biden from winning a swing state in polls: 0.53
On average, how far was Hillary from winning a swing state in polls: 5.16

It gets worse if you don't lump them into one and compare just the rust belt, after which Biden's already won.

"But it's 2016 again!" Trump average gain in 2016 in swing states vs polls: +5.93
Undecideds on average was: 12,89%
Undecideds on average in 2020: 5.71%
Trump's 2016 gain vs polls using today's pool of undecideds: +2.62


So even if Trump does the crazy last minute run again, which he won't, he'll gain +2.62%. He needs to gain much more, but it's going to be very difficult because he's also the lowest rated president in decades. How are you going to convince people to vote for you when your pool is starting to be limited to people who disapprove of your job as president? It's just a really, really, really tall hill for him to climb.

These are the facts. I'm not sure what you posted was, but they were certainly closer to speculation than facts. Feel free to ask any random person who isn't biased in either direction and I'd guess they're agreeing with me on this.

If you really want to bet on Trump +140 (2.4 decimal odds right?) sure, I'll bite as much as you want. But I could just hedge it immediately and lay Trump at better odds, which is honestly what I would do since I'm already way too deep in this, and it's not a bet you should make because you can find better odds anywhere online. PM me if you really, really want to make that bet though, and if we can find an escrow I'll be happy to bet. But seriously, I'd feel like an ass doing it, because you can get odds that are a LOT better online so I'd look into that option first. If you can't find anything because of US sportsbetting difficulties or something sure I'll help you out at that price tho.

Confused as to why whb brought up Florida with such conviction.

Trump has had Florida is a highly likely victory for a while now, along with Ohio. Those two being talked about as "swing states" is just talk because they have been close in the past - specifically Florida - but each lean quite red right now.

The actual swing states that are going to decide things are Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Biden currently favored in each of those states, Trump needs at least one to make things close (and again, that's with Florida and Ohio under his belt).

It's possible some other minor states switch Trump's way - Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico - which could open up new paths for a reelection, but those are certainly longshots. This election is very likely won in the battle for the five states I listed in the previous paragraph.

Many if not all save for Trafalgar, have had Biden winning Florida by upwards of 4 points. Still to this very moment, the polls show a win for Biden whereas the betting markets are finally showing a significant lead for Trump.

I don’t see AZ in play. MI and Ohio are for Trump. At that point, he only needs one of the rust belt states like PA and it’s over. Fat chance a weakly and dementia affected life long politician who’s openly said he’ll ban fracking wins in PA.

Donations outside the major metros and bellwether counties all heavily favor Trump. The only reason why we’re questioning the obvious is this sick cult behavior of blind belief in the polls.

If you can’t honestly see the herd behavior occurring then props to you, must feel nice and safe within the herd.

Also, generally speaking, if the polls are super wrong on Florida then everything else is in play isn’t it?

Interestingly, the Economist has FL most similar to PN and MI, whereas 538 rates NC, TX and GA most similar to FL, with PN and MI being 6th and 10th.

The 2018 Senate election definitely showcased some flaws in the 538 model. 3-term Senator Bill Nelson was the incumbent favourite in their model, the only problem was he was running against popular 2-term Governor Bill Nelson, who couldn't run again as governor due to term limits.

In case anyone is wondering, 538 gave the Dems 70% and 77% to win the Senate and Governorship in FL, but were ultimately won the Reps.

I mean, Chuck Bass has pretty much summed up all of the logical data driven arguments at this point

Everyone else's answer is 'but the Trump voters are lying to the pollsters/but 2016 even though Trump exceeded his national polling by 1.5-2% and would have lost if he'd had 1% or so less of the national vote equally distributed etc

What people don't seem to get is Biden is leading by more than Clinton was leading by on election week after the Comey letter and people's opinions are a lot more fixed on Trump than they were four years ago so he has less room to grow, it's a turn out the base election with few undecideds at this stage, Dems are turning out to vote early and turnout is likely to exceed 60%

Trump has always needed low turnout overall to win, as his base is smaller but more energized to turn out for him no matter what because that's what Republicans do. Democrats didn't turn out for Hillary, part because she was uninspiring, part because they expected her to win anyway and part because Trump wasn't as widely hated as he is now. Biden isn't super inspiring either but he is a lot more likeable than Hillary and Trump is a lot more hated than he was four years ago on the Dem side so people will turn out to vote against him. Also, we've had 4 more years of old people dying/young people turning 18. Trump's base skews older and whiter and America's demographics are getting less white over time and old people die and are replaced by new voters coming of age. Yes, some people tend to get more conservative with age, but I don't think that Trump has gained very many new voters who didn't vote for him in 2016, he won't have lost that many either, he'll get about the same number of votes he did 4 years ago, the issue is Biden will get more votes than Hillary did 4 years ago.

If anyone wants Trump wins with 60%+ turnout (void if sub 60% turnout) i'm happy to give market price for large sums just lmk

Wrong.

Disprove the 10 bellwether counties, not a single one going for Biden.

Disprove any of the “rallies” held by Biden/Harris or even Obama and how they have a handful of miserable looking people. Thus far, the standard ****** answer has been “well there’s the ‘rona virus not safe”. How does that apply to Hillary having the same issues back in 2016?

Disprove the record hot housing market. People who aren’t confident about their current finances and future outlook aren’t buying the largest purchase of their lives.

Meanwhile you and Chuck all have to say is “but muh polls”. Find me the incentives and I’ll find you what their actions are. Nate and those in media want to shape policy and not reflect it.

Really the only reason you are arguing that Biden will win is because of polls, Chuck. Polls that are very similar to 4 years ago. Is nytimes and 538 projecting Biden at a higher win percentage than Hillary? Why would people be more enthusiastic for Biden over Hillary? People were at least enthusiastic for a woman president before. I don't know 1 person who is an enthusiastic Biden supporter. I'm in an email chain with family and friends in my state and it is pretty split. But none of the people supporting Biden had him as near their first choice during primaries.

Incumbent presidents have a hard time losing. They have an either harder time losing when they aren't starting wars and the economy is doing well. The economy is suffering because of a virus that came from one of our biggest enemies, who we were battling in a lot of trade deals.. (China). Trump voters don't hold the virus against him, no matter how badly democrats want them to. I think you even have plenty of people who are having their lives destroyed by the lockdowns from the virus, not the actual virus. I live in one of the bluest states in the country and rents here have dropped by like 1k a month, because people are fleeing the city.

Trump said last night "If we win here, we win" in regards to Wisconsin. He also alluded very strongly to Kyle Rittenhouse in Kenosha.

I'm praying.

Okay mate it's time to stop posting. I explained both of these fallacies to you on this very same page. There are no people in Biden/Harris/Obama "rallies" BECAUSE THERE ARE NO PEOPLE ALLOWED IN THERE. And conversely, there's not a single person in Trump rallies who wasn't voting Trump anyway. These very contradicting images from the opposing parties rallies is exactly the reason why idiots are making wagers on Trump that are very, very, very likely to be losing, and if they somehow hit were bizarrely -EV to begin with. The bellwether crap is also one the most ridiculous arguments I have ever heard. "Look, it rained in this one spot in the middle of a desert yesterday, I'll take +140 it'll rain here again today!"

Gee, imagine betting on who the Americans will elect as president and when making decisions, using data over a sample of millions of voters where they reveal who they are voting! It's basically a cheat code at this point, the numbers are out there, the only thing you need to do is not draw stupid conclusions about irrelevant factors and you can't possibly make a mistake.

if you think 2020 polls are anywhere near the 2016 polls you must be really terrible at reading data. Or did you just read the Fox News headline "polls were wrong in 2016! They will be again!" without making any effort to open the polls for two seconds?

The average amount of votes the winner received in swing states in 2016 was 49.33%. Hillary's polling average was 44.17%, Bidens is 48.8%. That's nearly a 5 point difference. And this is including some very unfavorable Biden states like Texas Georgia etc. If you only include the ones he actually needs to win, it gets way worse for Trump. Biden already has +50% of the votes when in 2016 Hillary had a hard time polling above 45%. How do you win a state when the other guy has over 50% of the vote? That's a major difference.

Trump's average gain against polls in swing states (the effect was much lower nationwide) was +5.93. That's an INSANE swing and any sane person will understand that it's impossible-ish to do again given the 2020 climate. But okay, let's say he does the exact same thing again! He will still lose. In 2016 there was on average 12,89% undedideds in swing states, now there are 5.71%. He would need to pull of the same swing from a pool that has 60% less voters.

Trump is very unlikely to pull off a similar comeback to 2016, obvious reasons being Trump himself being very unpopular and the lack of a Comey emails type of last second scandal, but even if he did the exact same thing again, he would still lose.

But sure, feel free to use your family email chain as a more credible source of information instead.

Incumbent presidents have a very hard time winning when they are as unpopular as Donald Trump. His job approval is -11. The worst rating any incumbent has won 2nd term with since at least the 1970s was Bush jr with +4. That's a 15 point difference and the election is 9 days away. Good luck with that Donald.

And if you want to dive more into it: The lowest amount of voters who approve of your job anyone's won a 2nd term with since at least Carter is 49%. Trump's number is 42.6%. The lowest amount of voters who disapprove of your job anyone's won 2nd term with is 45%. Trump's is 53.6%.

The absolute best situation Trump has ever been during his 4 years is "only" 8 points behind the lowest approval rating that won a 2nd term. That lasted for about a week.

It's not even just Trump vs Biden polls, it's Trump vs himself basically.

Trump approval/disapproval 42.6% - 53.6%
Trump-Biden (polling average) 42.8% - 51.9%

You can replace Biden with anyone remotely competent and you probably get the same results. Yeah, no one's voting Biden because of Biden. They're voting against Trump, and as the crazy early turnout has taught us, they are doing so in very bigly numbers leaving Trump drawing almost stone dead pending a last minute shock twist.

It's basic logic. If you don't approve of the job the incumbent has done as president, why would you vote him for 2nd term? The only reason this would happen is if the other guy would be even more unpopular which clearly isn't the case with Biden. Maybe this wouldn't be so much of an issue if Trump wasn't trailing by such a ridiculously large deficit. But he is, and his only way to come back is to get a crazy avalanche of votes... from a pool of people who disapprove of the job his done during his 1st term. Good luck with that.


This has nothing to do with the election. Trump could murder people on live tv and his voters won't hold it against him. His voters will vote for him regardless. The problem is there aren't enough of them.

If nothing changes before election day, Trump basically has next to no chance to win. His only shot is a rapid swing in odds due to some unforeseen factor we don't know of yet. Or I guess technically the debate could've won him a ton of voters, which I find really hard to believe in 2020's political climate, but that's at least a shot. We don't know reliable post-debate polling # yet. Idk, it's just really confusing to me how people can give him much more than 10%ish at this point. Maybe 15% if you're feeling generous, and sure the race can still change if a shock twist occurs, but as of now it just isn't close at all.

double post sorry

I don't pay much attention to the polls because they are a means of voter suppression in USA. Obviously some of the polling data is manipulated in a way to make it seem like Biden is a bigger favorite than he is. I've heard arguments as to how it is done, no reason to type it out. We will see the results of a real vote soon enough, with hopefully no voter fraud! (But lol at thinking Texas will be a Biden win... if polls are saying that, I guess either polls or I will be way off on election night)

The theory you've heard is "shy Trump voters" or some boosted version of it. It's a load of crap and it's been debunked numerous times.

-Why was Trump winning states like PA in polls in the spring? Why did these very same voters have absolutely no problem saying they are voting Trump about six months ago?
-Why are we getting the ~same results from medias like Fox News and other very Trump-friendly medias?
-Why is Trump losing a **** ton of votes in extremely red states like Arkansas or whatever? He's suffering a similar deficit everywhere, how come people are shy about voting Trump in states where it's practically a crime to vote anyone but Trump?

Trump's polls have dipped in line with job approval. People are increasinly unhappy with him --> they aren't voting him. Is that really so hard to believe? Do you really think that it's more likely there's a nationwide conspiracy of rigging every poll from New York to North Dakota by dozens and dozens of pollsters who are working in perfect unison to achieve the same results regardless of if they are left-wing or right-wing? Come on man you're smarter than that.

Also, even if you did believe in this theory, the problem is that even if it's true Trump is still losing because he's so much beyond any margins of errors imaginable.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct21

Seems like the race is within the margin even according to polls. So not sure why someone like Chuck who blindly follows polls, is so confident. It kind of reminds of the confidence people had in Hillary in 2016 based on the exact same polls!

Nah, the theory I've heard as to why the polls are off is because they over sample democrats and under sample republicans (compared to their likely voter data or something). I heard Jared Kushner say it to Bret Baier and he said there internal polling show different numbers.

GOP Chairwoman talking about ~20% attendees at two rallies aren’t Republican. It’s funny how I keep posting hard facts and the “basic logic” you point to is always like 8 lolpolls.
https://twitter.com/gopchairwoman/st...662294017?s=21

Bro, Quinnipeac has Biden winning GA at +7. That’s literally impossible.

Again, how you can say dollars raised in predictive counties is crap shows you are definitely in the “it’s science bro” camp. It’s not like out of 10, there were some going for Biden. ALL 10 went for Trump and majority showed a crushing win for him.

Many of these counties are working class, where $50 is an entire week’s fun/drinking budget. Think of the hard choice those people did in order to donate that money. But of course, talking over the phone to a rich pollster from NYC who’s talking to you like an idiot is definitely going to extract the truth from that worker.