This bet pays off at the inauguration so i'll say 97% biden dies or is removed somehow. But honestly the RGB thing today and the fact that Biden stopped doing press at 8am, etc. I could see a situation where he wins and then is removed before January due to undefined "issues". Who knows how they plays out legally.

plus think of all the positive press you'd get cashing a $100 ticket on kamala for president. action network would definitely write an article

parlay patz would write a letter to you from prison

etc.

In a pandemic, 300/1 is probably about right. Back of the envelope numbers, 10% chance of corona + 5% chance of death given corona, and you are already almost there. If you are on an exchange you also have substantial "conspiracy theorists decide that Biden is definitely going to be replaced by hillary" equity.

Hillary was trading at 40-50 from memory a couple weeks from the convention due to the conspiratards in a scenario where even if Biden hadn't been able to be the nominee they would have picked someone else - they just can't accept that Hillary knows her career is over after 2016 and has moved on to elder statesman status for the good of the party.

This is a bad argument, and you should feel bad about it

who is the clown?

you gonna dabble with a model this year GB? if not i assume yours would look most like JHK?

No, COVID & kids being home and in homeschool means I just don't have the time. And I had expected Nate's model would be pretty good and there wasn't a ton to do to improve on it.

As it is I think he was stacked too many conservative assumptions and also I HATE the way he's visualized it, but c'est la vie.

Who's JHK?

Just googled it, this is great!

I haven't read the methodology but it's nice to see a well-presented model

yeah the 538 layout is rough. glad you like jhks! his sim is fun, but it gets a little nutty on the tails

As in mis-specified on the tails or just.. tail outcomes are crazy?

The description of his methodology is unclear, incomplete, and fairly poorly written imo

Is he a 2p2er? How did we find his model?

a month ago or so it was rolling biden winning by 15 pts like 1 in 6 times or smtn, which feels ridiculous. there were a few sims near 20.

just found him on twitter. harry enten gave him a shoutout. he's maga tho

Trump 2020, Landslide

That's not a very specific prediction

Yeah, I don't want to be "that guy" (so thanks goofball for being it instead of me), but we're all aware that people exist on the internet who think all kinds of things, including Trump landslide. I'm more interested in hearing the arguments why.

For me personally that's going to be a lot about people who voted Hillary last time who are voting Trump this time, or who voted Trump last time and are voting Biden this time (plus the various moves between voting for X and not voting in both directions). Ideally from people we know but if not then "confirmed by thinking about it" is also good.

Conventional wisdom may be wrong of course - I was talking about 50+ conservative majority in the UK election when the markets had a hung parliament as odds on - pretty much for the above reason (looking at who was changing votes and in what direction).

I don't expect there will be a lot of Hillary to Trump or Trump to Biden voters. The main movement will be from the Green and Libertarian parties and nonvoters, along with Trump to dead and 16-years-old to Biden.

isn't there a pretty consistent slide from D to R from the ages of about 24-40 as people start to realise how the world works and shed some of their idealism?

No. For the most part, your political views are set by whether you like the guy who's President when you're 18-24. Andrew Gelman did a great study showing this. http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman...g_20191017.pdf

For example, white Americans born before 1980 are all majority Republican, except for those born between 1950 and 1954. Those folks came of age during Nixon/Watergate/Vietnam, and having that as a formative experience made them majority Democratic, and kept them that way for 50 years.

Not so much a D to R thing as each younger generation is more progressive than the last, so as people age they're more conservative by default, some become more conservative as they get wealthier, in other cases the definition of progressive changes over time as things, well, progress.

Like I know a super progressive 87 year old nice dude who things 'im ok with the gays as long as they dont flaunt it in my face and do their own thing'. Obviously not quite progressive by 2020 standards, but hell that's pretty progressive until at least the 1990s when he would have been in his 60s.

That's about as progressive as you can get for a working class man in his late 80s I think

A lot of my fairly progressive views right now will probably gradually become moderate or even conservative leaning in 50 years time when i'm old

Yeah, I agree, on social issues, the world has changed so quickly that what was once bleeding edge progressive is now mainstream, and what was mainstream is now conservative in many cases. On economic issues, not so much.

There's also a compositional effect in that most of the voters who died in the last 4 years were white, but only about half those who turned 18 are white.

I read an article recently, I think Pew research, that millenials are slightly more Republican but even the Republican millenials have a more progressive view on social issues.
In America there are only two viable political parties. So people with widely different views on many issues still find themselves in the same party.

Edit: I guess I was wrong again!
Here's the actual article from the Atlantic.
I don't know what help it is to betting politics, but what the heck.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...0sounds%20nice.

Watching the West Wing now is kind of a trip. The bar on LGBT rights has moved SO FAR, but other stuff is basically the same

In another forum here, the classic question was posed; are you better off now than four years ago? Although the economy has sunk, millions are unemployed, besides Covid19, the overwhelming response was yes.
Most people on this forum are successful in one way or the other, so it's no surprise.
But even successful people can be shortsighted. Our personal success doesn't necessarily translate into the overall success of the society we live in.
We might be making money in the stock markets, but the stock market is no longer an accurate indicator of the greater economy.

Yeah Millenials and Gen Z are both Dem leaning, just low youth voter turnout

I mean our Republican Presidents (i'm a millenial) were Dubya and Trump and at best they're both in the four worst Presidents since WW2 (i'd assume Nixon and Carter had the other least successful Presidencies in that period but with the Bush foreign policy disaster and the Trump everything i'd argue Nixon and Carter were both less of a disaster)

Gen X and Boomers at least remember Bush 1 or for older Gen X and above Reagan too but yeah Republicans are in a world of hurt demographically as America becomes less white and Boomers start to die off unless they can start to appeal to the younger generations of voters already they've only won the popular vote once for President since the 1992 election and that was relatively close, and the first Presidential election since 9/11 etc

I was 3 years old in 1988 the second most recent time the Rs won the popular vote in a Presidential election and i'm 35 now

Swoop, I agree with you about Trump being one of the four worst presidents. But that is a matter of opinion.
Lot's of people are of the opposite opinion, and everyone's opinion has to be respected.

Now, I got my bitcoin from 5dimes. I'm thinking of putting it on Biden for Arizona.
According to every poll, Biden has been leading forever. But according to a recent poll, all of a sudden, they're just about even. What's the matter with Arizona?