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Originally Posted by Chuck Bass
If Biden wins at least two of Wisconsin/PA/Michigan, he's going to be pretty damn close to winning the presidency outright, right? So am I just costing myself a ton of EV here doing state betting when I might as well bet on him winning the presidency?
Yes.
Sports bettors who are dipping their toes into politics betting skew right. It's like betting on the home team with a local bookie -- you won't get good odds because everyone else wants to bet the same way. So betting Biden to win the general is strongly +EV.
If you get deep enough into politics to bet individual states, folks are more analytical. The state lines are rarely more than 10 percentage points off from 538's estimates. Biden in WI is +EV, but less so. You could probably put together an arb betting Biden to win overall and also to lose individual states.
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Also what do you guys think about betting on Biden winning the popular vote? You can get -400, meaning that the breakeven point is 80%. Feels more like 90%+ to me, no?
I think Biden is a very strong favorite to win the popular vote, but given the potential for Trump to screw with mail-in voting, and voting in general, plus the insanity of this year, I don't like laying that much chalk.