Is there anywhere to put down a bet that there WON'T be any presidential debates?

The hate that you so openly admit to " with a fiery passion " is getting people killed. It's people like you that are the scourge of America.

You don't know what the **** you're talking about.

I've lived in the USA. I've lived elsewhere. I've traveled the world.

The USA is (by far) the least racist country in the world, by any metric.

You also don't know what the **** you're talking about. A trump supporter was murdered in cold blood in the street in Oregon simply for being a trump supporter. By antifa criminal thugs. That's the LITERAL SOLDIERS OF THE left getting people killed. Not someone who has strong feelings of "passion against the left"...the person who has strong feelings is more guilty than the literal cold blooded murderer in your world... rofl lmao what world do you possibly live in? Lala land must be fun, I'd like to visit sometime

Zplus, you're delusional if you think there is no racism in America. The reasons these protests are going on is just because of exactly what you want to deny exists, because otherwise you couldn't look yourself in the mirror. I was referring to all the victims of exactly the cancerous hate you're spewing. The two left wing protesters in Wisconsin and the right wing protester in Oregon. Nobody should be getting killed cover this. So just listen to yourself.

Listen guys, I agree, the country is in chaos. And who's been at the helm the last four years? Who's responsible? Donald Trump and his minions like zplus. This is Donald Trumps America.

a) No, the left lost its mind and was on the verge of losing its mind whether Trump was involved in 2016 or not. He just accelerated it because he’s the perfect lightning rod for this merry band of professional victims. That’s pretty much what this clown Ted Wheeler said, Trump TRIGGERED us into this persistent unrest on the streets in Portland. Again, these children make it very easy to to be me and support Trump.

b) You can’t say ORANGE MAN BAD non-stop *and* “America is white supremacist to the core, look at the history, all the statues must come down, defund the police”. Trump is not responsible for the latter so you’re better off picking one if you want to be taken semi-seriously

There used to be a time in this country, not so long ago, when you never talked about religion, personal finances or politics with people you don't intimately know. It's one of the things that made this different country from the Chile's and the Serbia's of this world. What made this country civil. Well, all that's gone out the window.
Recently I was spending some time with acquaintances who are Trump supporters. They briefly mentioned, while all the while I was biting my tongue, about how Colleges are too liberal and how it's better not sending your kids at all. This is how far the distrust that Trump has sown into the fabric of American society has gone. So, we can look forward to a future of illiterate goons being the majority population. Of darkness and American decay.
Good luck everyone. Now let's get back to business.

steeler, you're a literal Nazi supporter. As in, you got temp-banned from this forum for doing the [[[]]] thing and complaining about the "Jew-run media".

Don't pretend like it's the left acting like children that makes you vote Trump. You like Trump because you're a terrible person and he's a terrible person and you both hate the same people.

fwiw i don't know or care who is going to win but trump +135 was pretty ridiculous and created some nice arb opportunities. just like 2016.

One of things that the left has encouraged recently is to take a stand against family members and close friends saying unwoke things, even if it means alienating them. If your uncle gets a little tipsy at Thanksgiving and goes on a diatribe about how he's not down with the trannies, call his ass out! This is how we make society better! lol you people want this sort of division, don't act all innocent when it's shoved back in your face.

As for your specific example, of course colleges are too liberal. And going to college is very expensive. So it shouldn't surprise you when people seek out alternatives when colleges do nothing to alleviate these problems that regular people didn't create. I'm not sure why students, particularly at public institutions, need to be subjected to this liberal indoctrination when they're there to get an education.

Is there not a significant Jewish influence in mass media? Can we agree that cable news is mostly garbage and that these networks don't particularly care if they're overly biased or divisive or misleading? Well if we can agree there, then in my opinion it's absurd that white people as a whole get blamed for these police shootings, their lack of action, etc., and these narratives get pushed by these media outlets and they get pushed for a reason. Most white citizens have nothing to do with police protocol or police unions. Many white people actually hate the cops quite a bit. White people were pretty much universally horrified initially over the death of George Floyd. This is all our (white people's) fault though. And I'm a big Nazi for standing up to this nonsense. Sure thing, call me a Nazi all you want if it makes you feel better about yourself.

And some people still wonder why 2+2 is dead....

who cares about this crap. just talk about ways to exploit markets to make money

like how we made money off biden when everyone thought bernie actually had a chance

and how we make money off trump

and how nate is a con artist because he doesn't have to be accountable in any way for his models

if he's wrong just come up with some excuse and people cover for him by pointing out how every site that has financial interest in trump losing had trump at 1% to win and nate had 30% the morning of even tho nate had trump at close to 0% most of sept-nov. if he's right then he's a genius

I'm sure Nate WOULD bet, he's just contractually obliged not to. He's chomping at the bit to get money down on his sweet predictions. That pesky employer simply won't let him.

+1 to this.

There is already https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...itics-society/ for people who want to talk more generally about politics. Of course it's a complete dumpster fire for reasons that are becoming obvious ITT.

Getting back on topic, on Betfair it's noticeable that while the odds for key individual states seem to heavily favour Biden - e.g.

Pennsylvania 1.60 D, 2.42 R
Wisconsin 1.60 D, 2.22 R
Minnesota 1.53 D, 2.60 R
Florida 1.94 D, 2.00 R
Arizona 1.98 D, 1.90 R

For the election itself the odds are 1.99 Biden, 2.06 Trump

Any views on that discrepancy?

It's incomprehensible to me FL is a similar price to straight up EC win - if the Dems win 261, any other swing state gets them to 270. On the other hand they have plenty of paths to 270 without Florida (mostly involving some combo of the midwest and Arizona)

If you like the Trump side you're much better off betting FL, if you like the Biden side you're much better off betting Biden

Anybody looking at how today's Senate races pan out? If the results will be consistent with the polls? And if that would be any indicator of how accurate the presidential polls will be?

Edit: Massachusetts is holding a primary today.

it was even worse a few months ago. dems were 65c (biden himself like 60c) when i locked in

texas GOP 62c
georgia GOP 54c (lol)
arizona GOP 36c
north carolina GOP 41c
ohio GOP 55c

i also put a bet down on florida, which i sold. i wish i had done iowa, but i didn't deposit enough money. basically had similar numbers to ohio at the time

i have about 1k left on the accoutn now, and i keep on getting close to pulling the trigger on biden, but i figure we get some real scary trump up in phone polls at some point and i get a better price. i really only want to bet biden if its thick value since im emotionally invested

Kennedy led senator Markey at the beginning of campaigning and then fell behind ten points about a week before the election. Markey win 55 to 44%

Lot's of early voting and mail in ballots. No problems or issues whatsoever.
Massachusetts just does things better.

nailed it

Especially racism!

Mail in voting is horrendous though. Nice to see The Drooler lose at least.

I made this post at another forum, but I only discovered this thread now where I think it's better suited.

Non-american politics n00b here. I've been placing a fair few bets on certain swing states ending up in Biden's favor, but barely any on him winning the presidency. But I wonder how illogical this has, in the end, been, given that the odds in state betting are a fair bit worse than him winning outright.

For example, my biggest bet is Biden winning Wisconsin at -133. You could still get almost even money on Biden winning outright.

My logic here was basically: Wisconsin voted for the democrat nominee 7 times straight until Trump beat Hillary by 0.7%. Now there should be enough reasons for them to not go for Trump again both in terms of what's going on in the state (Kenosha) and in terms of generally not being happy enough with Trump to go republican again given their voting history.

While I realize it's not that simple, I feel like that's a relatively smart bet on its own, and I have Biden to win PA at the ~same odds and basically for the same reasons (dems won 6 times straight until Trump beat Hillary, Biden is from PA, etc). My third major bet is Biden winning Michigan -167.

But: If Biden wins at least two of Wisconsin/PA/Michigan, he's going to be pretty damn close to winning the presidency outright, right? So am I just costing myself a ton of EV here doing state betting when I might as well bet on him winning the presidency?

My bets are definitely way too big relative to my bankroll and liferoll, so I'm fine paying a small premium as an insurance (should at least be pretty hard to lose all three as opposed to just betting everything on Biden), because I believe it's just pretty damn +EV to bet pretty much any market on Biden right now. But if hitting my bets means Biden's just winning the whole thing anyway, then I'm starting to think it's way too much to lose.

What do you guys think?
----

Also what do you guys think about betting on Biden winning the popular vote? You can get -400, meaning that the breakeven point is 80%. Feels more like 90%+ to me, no?

Yes.
Sports bettors who are dipping their toes into politics betting skew right. It's like betting on the home team with a local bookie -- you won't get good odds because everyone else wants to bet the same way. So betting Biden to win the general is strongly +EV.

If you get deep enough into politics to bet individual states, folks are more analytical. The state lines are rarely more than 10 percentage points off from 538's estimates. Biden in WI is +EV, but less so. You could probably put together an arb betting Biden to win overall and also to lose individual states.


I think Biden is a very strong favorite to win the popular vote, but given the potential for Trump to screw with mail-in voting, and voting in general, plus the insanity of this year, I don't like laying that much chalk.

Hey Chuck Bass

Loved your books, hope you keep crushing it as a writer even if it means we never get part 3.

You're basically right that you'd have been better off betting Biden straight up than those states as they're each close to the tipping point so if he wins 2/3 there or whatever he's likely won the Presidency. It's pure madness that people out there are betting on Biden to win FL as opposed to the presidency for example as there are basically no scenarios where he wins FL but loses the election and a few scenarios where he loses Florida but wins the election.

If Biden takes MN/MI/WI/PA there are no paths to 270 for Trump unless he can take a Hillary state like NH/NV which is unlikely and if he falters in any of them he has fallbacks in AZ/FL/NC (although by the time we get to about NC Biden already won a long time ago same as if Trump is winning Nevada or whatever he's already won)

I have a Biden position from early on but not large relative to my BR, will be going harder election week/day once we have more complete information, especially about Trump's attempts to suppress the postal vote etc. as well as any changes in polling between now and then

What is very likely is Trump crushes the initial returns as in person votes start to pour in and more so from smaller precincts likely to be rural, so if you want Biden there's a strong chance your best bet is to bet him in play when the early returns favour Trump - I seem to remember in 2018 when the markets swung on early results and Dems to win the house or whatever was trading at around evens for a while when it was a huge fav all along and with in person votes skewing Trump and postal votes skewing Biden due to Dems taking covid seriously and trump backers not so much, there's a good chance the value on the Biden side will be early-mid stages on election night just as the first returns start coming in IF Biden is meeting his thresholds once we have a better idea of how many postal votes are out there vs in person turnout and the polling both for people postal voting and voting in person (postal vote will skew D and in person R, but by how much, and how many outstanding postals are there and and what is the overall turnout level and so on). If turnout gets to about 57% or so between postal and in person ballots, Trump is toast and by 60% it's a landslide. If it's below 50%, he's probably a favourite.

Fortunately 2016 was close so we'll have a good idea of what the targets are in most counties in a flip election, the issue will be modelling for the postal vote and knowing how many postal votes there are in each state etc. and what the turnout levels are like on election day and so on to get accurate numbers as a ton of Dems are postal voting who voted in person last time, and the opposite for Republicans

I'm confident Biden is the right side if America is still a democracy where rule of law matters (under the assumption polling numbers stay around where they are now, if they tighten I may sit it out or switch sides), but i'm not going to load the cannons until much closer to election day or probably even in play depending what happens between now and then

There's also a decent chance Trump will cry rigged as he leads early on election night and gets run down by postal votes, he'll try and take it to the supreme court and so on, and while that has a 5-4 R split, I don't think Roberts wants to destroy the supreme court's legacy by ruling postal votes and invalid or something stupid like that. I think this election will hinge on how successful Republican voter suppression tactics are unless they drastically improve their polling position. If Biden's up 4% in the popular vote or so they might steal it, if it's only 3% or so Trump might legitimately win the EC while losing the pop vote and if it's 7% or so it's just too big a margin to compromise with shenanigans.

I don't see any scenarios where Trump wins the popular vote unless he drastically improves his polling before election day, but it's not like the prices will get a lot worse due to people betting for their home teams and so on so I don't see much incentive to tie up large %s of bankroll this far out anywhere really.

Also @parttimepro I agree good chance there will be a chance for a middle betting Biden president and Trump FL for example or Trump NC if the price is okay, there are scenarios where Biden wins those states but by then he's already won and there are definitely scenarios where Trump wins those states but loses via the midwest path to 270 or most of midwest + AZ

Parttimepro and swoop, thank you for the thoughtful responses. I already kinda realized how stupid I had been when I was typing my post, but was good to get confirmation. It definitely seems like the best EV right now is to just bet on Biden winning EC, and if you want to hedge it, bet on Trump winning Florida and/or maybe PA?

Off topic, but what do you guys think are roughly Trump's chances of winning Nevada? I know that the gambling sector is the biggest employer in the state, and the governor (a democrat) has royally pissed off everyone with the endless covid closures. Seems like Trump would have a good shot of getting angry protest votes plus if he marches there and promises everyone jobs and to stop the "democrat nonsense closures" or whatever, he could get quite a lot of votes. I'm just not sure if it'll be enough especially given how many latinas live in the state, but the odds are pretty great (need only 25% chance of Trump winning to break even).