Here's my final position for the VP stakes. Locked in a $450+ gain with no risk anymore.

The list is too long to fit all the shorts I put on into a single screenshot.

Had previously gone long Harris, short everyone else, but the recent move by Rice, on basically no news, has me a bit shook.

The only thing I would have done differently would be to be a bit more patient in getting these shorts on. There were a lot of times were someone (Demings, Baldwin, etc.) would have a boomlet and get their name out there and would jump to 10-20%, then fade back to single digits. I should have waited for those turns in the spotlight and shorted there. Would have avoided shorting Rice at 2 way back when. On the other hand, I did manage to lock in shorts like Abrams at 16, Buttigieg at 8, Nina Turner(!) at 7.

Well done, I am riding with on Harris for a max bet. Based in part on the info you provided ITT. So let's get it. I'm not particularly worried about Rice, with a lead in the polls Biden has no need to do anything fancy, just go with the expected choice.

You're probably right, I'm probably overthinking it. It's just a pretty cloudy market at this point, in the sense that it's one person's decision, and the easy money of shorting obvious Nos has been made.

So um one of my locals has Bass at $56 when betfair is 17/18 back lay so tried to whack it for a bit

Got 40 bucks on so not exactly a big bet... but I guess I am officially involved on the VP market lol granted at +5500 on a line that should be +1600 or so

It'll be Harris with a chance of Rice probably... but Bass would be a nice start to election season lol

I traded back into max long Kamala after this story came out:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...2ab_story.html
Biden's got notes on what to say about Kamala, but no one else? Pretty big tell imo.

Just wanted to chime in on how awful your analysis is. A few months ago I gave you the roadmap to the VP election, telling you that three people had zero chance. Those three were Kamala Harris, Stacy Abrams, and Amy Klobuchar. I told you that Elizabeth Warren would always be there in the end, and that if Biden Elected a black woman it would be Rice or Demmings before Harris, and that there was no chance it would ever be Klobucher over Warren. The odds at the time were Harris +150, Klobucher +400, Warren +600, and Abrahms +1,300. Klobucher actually went down to +200 shortly after the George Floyd incident. Shows you how horrific you, and other election bettors are. She then quickly zoomed to much higher odds and of course dropped out. Abrams of course never had a chance. Elizabeth Warren is still in, and even Whitmer seems to have come back to be on the shortlist. All things that I said.

To show how ridiculous your, and the media's analysis is, Kamala Harris is still the favorite, and yesterday Biden was photographed with notes about Kamala Harris. Further embarrassing yourselves, you, and the media actually believe that those notes are a good sign for Kamala Harris...lol. This is further evidence of being clueless about Biden's choice. Those notes are exactly what someone would say about a potential candidate they are not, or have not chosen. Biden's VP choice won't need generate talking points. Those notes are breakup notes, like having a prospective romantic interest tell you that they just wanted to be "friends".

Enjoy your huge losses on Kamala Harris. She has zero chance. Even Trump says she would be a fine candidate. With your nonsensical analysis, I bet you don't even understand that the Trump campaign's biggest dream come true is for Harris to be named VP. Thanks for the comedy the last few months. Once again, enjoy those Kamala Harris losing tickets. You deserve it.

The last person on the planet that Joe Biden would pick is Kamala Harris. She betrayed both he and his wife Jill by essentially calling him a racist (Harris was friends with the Biden's son Beau before he died), she called herself Top Cop, slept her way to her first key political positions (with a married man), is not even black, is married to an elitist white guy, and has no biological children of her own. I could go on.

Go to YouTube and watch her Breakfast Club interview. Their audience is 95 percent black. Read the comments. She is hated. Look at the dislikes to likes ratio. Then watch the Yang interview with the Breakfast Club, read the comments, look at the dislikes to likes ratio. And Yang is Asian, and these are mostly black people commenting. Kamala Harris's own father, a Stanford professor, denounced her.

I shouldn't even give you this free analysis because you don't deserve the opportunity to hedge. In any event, the Harris tickets are worth zero and your humiliation will come next week. Keep your day jobs.

Based spite post.

love how someone gets banned and makes a new account just to post that lol

I mean for anyone who doesn't think itll be Harris (and I hope it's not personally) you can just lay her on betfair and get better than evens on the field seems like common sense

Bass is in to 13.5/14.5 back lay on Betfair, shame they wouldnt take a real bet at that price lol

Rice 5.2/5.4 back lay betfair don't mind that price tbh as if it isn't Harris then I think Rice is a clear #2 before Bass just based on market alone. I feel like with whats going on in the country Biden is going to pick a black female VP, Warren/Duckworth are decent options but I guess Biden won't go that way after all, the left hasn't rebelled against him as hard as I expected so Warren isn't really necessary and Duckworth doesn't fit as well demographically

I'm kinda glad Demings has drifted I just don't like the idea of anyone in law enforcement an old man's heart beat away from the Presidency, same reason I don't like Harris.

Would be pretty sick if I binked Bass at +5500 for my first bet to grade of the cycle even at peanut stakes. One time Kamala say/do something stupid plz

Can I put my two cents in. Like I already said, I'm not betting on vp, simply because it seems too hard to make an educated pick. And this is just my personal opinion, but I totally agree with what Domer said way back, Rice would be the absolute worst choice.

She shares so much of the baggage that HC carried with her. Benghazi, a political insider. But worst of all, she's bland and doesn't garner any excitement. I don't know why she's still in the conversation. She'd be the worst pick.

lol Elves. We all appreciate how you're casting your pearls of wisdom before us swine.

Herman Cain died from covid. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/form...ronavirus.html

There's a good chance he got it at Trump's Tulsa rally.

But I thought the Trump virus was a liberal hoax?

Thoughts about Biden's announcement timing? He said earlier that he'd announce next week, but Fox News out with a tweet: https://twitter.com/FoxNewsSunday/st...76737803108357
Wallace generally a pretty good reporter, but he's definitely contradicting the plain meaning of what Biden said.
Current odds Aug 2-8: 57%, and Aug 9-15: 39%

Probably free money shorting before Aug 2 and after 15th for a total of 14%.

Nice call on Bernie tho brah.

You have me confused with someone else. My call was No Harris, then No Klobucher and No Abrams.

Biden's notes are a perfect example of how bad political punditry is. If Harris had any chance at all, Biden wouldn't be walking around with notes. His notes are what his handlers/zookeeper told him to say when he is asked about why he didn't pick her.

Here are notes.

Below Harris’ name were five talking points: “Do not hold grudges,” “Campaigned with me & Jill,” “Talented,” “Great help to campaign,” “Great respect for her.”


You guys think that Biden is going to make a huge announcement with Harris as his choice, and then utter the words "she campaigned with me and Jill". Lol. He is mentioning his wife because everyone with a clue knows that Biden's wife despises Kamala Harris. The talking points are exactly the talking points you would have when talking about someone you didn't choose.

You guys are the best. Keep the free comedy class going, please.

Seems like you'd need a LOT of balance to short all these people, at 80-90 cents, is that the case?

Do you have a lot of balance already and/or carry a balance there? I feel like the 5% wd fee kills my edge on most short plays.

No, if you short multiple people in the same market, you actually free up margin. In the screenshot, you can see I have -$233.90 tied up in margin.

Off topic me again. Not the vp discussion.
Trump campaign pulling any further ads from Michigan.

prolly a smart move to punt MI when the dam is breaking in some must win states

Idk if you give up on Michigan, PA and WI become must win states with no margin for error - if Michigan goes blue, the Dems are already at 268 with PA (and one of the ME or NE districts gets them to a tie at worst let alone any other state)

Honestly in Trumps spot he needs to punt on Texas/Georgia etc and assume they're going red because if not hes ****ed and it doesn't matter cos he's lost in a landslide and go all in on FL/NC/AZ/MI/WI/PA he needs to win at least 5 of the 6 there

I mean by all means put some resources into stuff like NH NV TX GA OH TX if you can afford it, but if he loses the midwest Biden is the new President

I think after all the 'delay the election' BS at this point Trump is almost just drawing to two outs - actual cheating, or record low turnout short of some major gaffes by Biden I think Biden should be closer to 75% than 70% now every week that passes is one week closer to the election and one less chance for Trump to change the narrative as he says and does stupid things

Also lol US economy 33% contraction, stonks go up because printer go brrrrrrr

Youwager still hanging +1400 for anyone who wants Bass at that price. $500 limit, can't re-bet.

Imho, all of the value in the VP markets right now lies with Demings and Duckworth. Maybe a liddle bit of Warren.

someone found a clip of bass praising scientology LOL. i guess that's why they leak her as the favorite? get the dirt on the low name recognition candidates ASAP.

strategically, i think i like warren at this point.

Added a small Rice +410 hedge to my Bass +5500 VP prop

They're both at tiny stakes but would still be a solid brag to nail such an off market price on Bass if she won given she's +4xx now

Hedged small on Rice because I want to be happy either way if we get one of the not Harris picks given I personally dislike Harris and the bets are small enough etc could easily lock in profit obv by taking her but enjoying the anti-Harris sweat

Def wouldnt touch Bass at the current +4xx if she's on the record saying dumb stuff about Scientology

My gut instinct is sort of Biden picks Rice due to trusting her the most but that isn't really based on anything