I can't imagine Trump losing/Biden winning Indiana. Indiana is almost as red as Alabama.
If Indiana is in play, then Trump's loss is already a forgone conclusion.

It seems Trump finally made a gaff that will have negative repurcusiones. When he started blabbing in the Tulsa"rally" how he told his people to stop testing.
That's was an epic blunder.
I'm starting to think that Trump isn't running this country, but rather his base. Trump seems so eager to say anything he thinks will make them happy, to say what he thinks they want to hear, as if he's almost afraid of them.

This makes no sense oh is redder than pa wi mi which gets Biden to 270

Fl and az are bluer than oh too and NC probably is as well now Biden wins 300 EVs without winning Ohio a decent amount of the time if Ohio falls he's probably getting close to 350 EVs

tipping point state on PI:

FLA: 20
PA: 18
WI: 12
AZ: 9
MI: 8
NC: 7
MI: 6
OH: 5
GA: 5
TEX: 4

there might be too much juice, but i like PA and AZ the most

I see this as functionally the probability that d loses mn vs r lose tx.

I’d bet on the Rs losing Texas

markets agree 64c to 81c. crazy since hillary won minneosta by a bit over a point. i guess i'm one of those has to see it to believe it fish.

Few things, first off obv Clinton didn't campaign in the midwest, secondly Dems were complacent expecting Clinton to win which lowered turnout (even though polling says Trump is a huge dog here Dems are legit worried he may get reelected) and finally Biden isn't Clinton, she's widely hated by both the right and left, and while Biden isn't popular with the far left or the right, but he's nowhere near as hated as Clinton was and he's also more popular in the midwest in general

Finally there's the curiosity factor, undecideds broke for Trump because hey they both suck so let's give him a go because he's the unknown outsider mentality etc, it's hard to run as an anti-establishment outsider when you're the incumbent President and have been for four years.

Trump would probably have to outright win the popular vote to win Minnesota not just the electoral college and that just doesn't seem possible unless there is either outright cheating (like compromised voting machines not just voter suppression) or record low turnout due to covid, and if it's the latter there's still postal voting plus it will continue to be a drag on Trump's approval ratings and the economy which may offset some of the gains he makes by some Dems being scared to go vote in person due to the pandemic

I mean, if we start seeing Trump -2 nationally or something Minnesota might be in play if Biden underperforms in the midwest but I really don't see how Biden underperforms Hillary given Trump is less popular now with moderates than he was in 2016 and Dems absolutely hate him to a much more extreme degree than in 2016 and are far more scared of Trump winning re-election than they were of him being elected in the first place since no one thought it was likely

On current polling numbers Trump wins 350+ EVs way more often than Biden loses Minnesota, if Trump is re-elected it'll almost certainly be by recreating his 2016 map, his best chance is probably his 2016 map minus Michigan and/or Pennsylvania (and if he loses both he still has to win both the Maine and Omaha districts to get to 270) I don't see a scenario for him to improve on his 2016 map at this point unless he vastly improves his polling numbers in the Midwest, Minnesota is marginally bluer than Michigan and Wisconsin and Trump's numbers there are horrible if any of the three fall it has to be Wisconsin first surely given how unpopular Trump is in Michigan especially and for Trump to win MN he basically has to win the popular vote which markets have him at

Also Kamala is below even money on Betfair now with Rice, Demings and Duckworth the only other contenders in the mix if the markets are to be believed at the moment.

I don't think Biden wins TX GA etc because the Rs will come home in the end probably, but if Trump continues to decline who knows it's possible, Obama did win Indiana in 2008 etc

hasn't minnesota been shifting worse for democrats tho? ppl cite texas and arizona as improving for them, and obv most or all of the rust belt is the opposite. so i think minnesota could be red in a b/e popular vote. after all, clinton won it by less than her overall margin, tho i do concede that she didn't campaign there.

you bring up some good points w regards to trump having a curiosity factor in 2016, but he also still has the "businessman" factor. voters think he's good with the economy. it's what he was going to run on before Covid19 and the protests. there's a lot of meat left on the bone for him, and i'm not sure there's much for Biden.

i guess that last line is why i'm betting on Trump to win FL, NC, OH, GA. and we'll see if i pick up texas. maybe closer to election

Clinton struggled mightily in the midwest. Likely a combo of sexism and trump's appeal to working class white voters. But the latest two polls in MN have biden +16 and +5.

Not enough for a 538 average but there is enough in..

OH - Biden +2.6
WI - Biden +8.1
MI - Biden +9.7
PA - Biden +8.1

All about a 10 point shift to Biden, consistent with his national polling shift. In order to think MN will go you have to imagine Trump has a massive comeback over the next few months, and then actually outperforms his 2016 results. Pretty tough sell. To believe Texas you need to think either things stay the same and trump loses a 60/40, or that things get a bit worse between now and election day.,

The problem with the economy is unemployment will be high. Yes that's largely because of the pandemic but the severity of the pandemic in America is largely Trump's fault. Only rich people care how the stock market is doing for the most part the average worker cares about do I have a job and am I making more money in terms of purchasing power than I was four years ago

Every new day we post here now is one less day for trump to make up ground

He seems to have stopped his slide in the polling but we're still not seeing him within the margin of error in states he needs to win

Also the wider the outbreak gets between now and the election the fewer people won't know someone who got covid personally so the percentage of people who think it's a hoax should continue to decline over time as more people know a friend or family member who got it etc

lots of good analysis in this thread and little fanboy-ish political comments. so thank you

ohio and georgia are probably even. odds reflect that...... obama won ohio twice, once handily..... georgia is the epicenter of change these days, so you may see things very different there from the past.... so different reasons for these to be at 55%.

i too look at HRC barely winning minneosta and wondering why it's barely ever mentioned....... BUT I AGREE that HRC basically blew the midwest. she's such an idiot.

basically the election was supposed to come down to florida and pennsylvania and adjusting for HRC stupidity the election did come down to those states.. HRC did campaign heavily in PA. so she didn't blow that state.

florida tipping point seems stupid....... it seems like PA has been close to the tipping point for a long long time. beyond PA, dem's next need arizona, wisconsin or florida (i assume they already have michigan)......... tipping pointing is purely based on state rankings of margins, so biden winning huge won't matter (the person who commented on it knew this)

what about closest state? NC or one of GA/IA/OH?

lots of chatter that trump will drop out, which is to me makes perfect sense and seems obvious it will happen...... timing of course would be very very important.

do people think:

A) Pence (nicky hayley?) would do alot better than trump.. i do think so, but not well enough to win

B) R would do much better in senate elections... i think this is obvious "yes".... but the more i think about it, would "trump lovers" just stay home?

If Trump drops out, a lot depends on the timing. If he did it tomorrow, maybe citing health reasons, Pence could pick up the ball and run with it, maybe even win (though he'd still be a big underdog).

If he did it the week before the election, and threw a petulant little tantrum? It'd be an unbelievable rout. Like if your general ran away from the battlefield. Dems would win every competitive race everywhere.

any edge in kanye running futures?!?

I mean, if you wanna take Kanye not to win the Presidency thats a lock - if he wanted to do a serious run it needed to be a year ago for the Dem nomination

I assume its a publicity stunt and he's not serious/won't campaign

If Trump drops out soon he'd be replaced as nominee but I doubt it, if he does drop out I think it'll be way too close to the election to effectively replace him, he'll fight until it's clear he absolutely cannot win then claim it was rigged probably rather than drop out while also cheating any way he can to try and win but if the margin is a landslide he won't be able to cheat anywhere near enough for it to matter

Pence would get smoked even worse than Trump, he's a weirdo who calls his wife mother and is a religious nut, he wouldn't appeal to the young MAGA hat wearing fratbro type crowd they'd stay home. Sure he'd make up a bit of ground with evangelicals but he'd run behind Trump everywhere

I think Haley would have the best chance to win on R side because she's kissed Trump's ring enough for the MAGA crowd but comes across as not as much of an extremeist even though she's basically given Trump a heavy endorsement on everything she's done

I think if Trump drops out any replacement is a dog because the MAGA base would be disillusioned, but Haley would be live to win probably just a 2 to 1 dog or so, Pence wins far less often than Trump imo more like 1 in 5 if Trump were to drop out today and Pence replaces him

I don't think Trump will drop out with more than a week until the election though if he does I think it'll be a hissy fit probably on election night once it's clear he can't win he 'drops out' so he cant lose but I think it's more likely he'll just claim it was rigged and 10m illegal immigrants voted or China/Russia rigged it for the Dems or whatever with no basis whatsoever

Trump back to +173 or so on Betfair, I guess he's stopped his slide finally by not doing anything insane for the past 48 hours or so and some swing state polls showing him down 5-10% range instead of 8-12% etc

I still think Biden wins by a decent margin, closest state probably one of GA NC TX or OH or one of the other redder swing states. If we want a longshot something like Utah or Montana could be in play for closest state if Trump loses the popular vote by 9% or whatever, Utah more so if he does more personally disgusting things before the election or steps up attacks on Romney and gets in a feud with him since they're a different breed of Republican there

I think we're down to three possible outcomes, a close Trump win while losing the popular vote with a bunch of voter suprression/Trump improving his national numbers by 5-6% or so, a closeish Biden win where he just takes the Midwest and maybe AZ and/or FL and NC, and then a Biden landslide where he wins the popular vote by 7%+ and just wins every swing state plus maybe a surprise or two

A lot's going to depend on how had the economy deteriorates and what happens with Covid between now and the election as well as the extent to which the Republicans try and cheat either through voter suppression/purging electoral rolls/long lines where Democrats live and short lines where Republicans live which is expected and happens every cycle or more outright cheating which isn't like actually trying to compromise voting machines which is far less likely but not impossible.

Can fade Kanye atm at 110 on Betfair, obviously his actual win % is way way way lower than 0.9% probably more like 0.001% but nobody wants to tie up cash for months for a 1% or less return. It's ridiculous he's a similar price to actual major party possible replacement nominees if either Biden or Trump die or drop out or aren't their party's nominee. I do fully expect Trump and Biden to be their parties nominees though

I think Rice is like the worst pick possible for 10 different reasons and I'd be shocked if she was picked. The market is insane.

Duckworth is not anywhere near good enough at media (just a couple hours ago she was wishy washy on whether George Washington statues should be torn down).

I still think it will be Kamala vs Demings if the Biden team is smart about it.

As someone who has nearly $1K tied up in 'happiness hedge' bets on Trump, reading the attached article is giving me some serious heartburn. My local's service has confirmed that they will be grading election winners based on who the NYT declares the winner (not who is President on January 20, 2021). This sets up a scenario, as outlined in the opinion piece, where Biden is declared the winner, Trump sues to challenge election results in every state where he lost and tie things up, preventing the Electoral College from convening by the appointed date, and... well, just read.
https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-c...pinion-1513975

Liz Warren @ 6c is a bit tempting. not sure a POC as VP is a lock, esp with announcement a month away.

Re-upping my PI price-to-odds converter since people are quoting those prices lately.

I liked Warren @ 12c or so a few wks ago a bit less sure now, i'm pretty sure Biden is going to pick a black woman now and it's probably Kamala the way her odds are holding up despite all the various market hype etc

I tend to agree that Duckworth is unlikely

Rice into clear 2nd fav atm, what's specifically wrong with her? I'm not particularly familiar with her beyond her being Obama's UN Ambassador and National Security Advisor

As far as I know she's bland and has no major scandals and in this campaign it's probably better to go low risk with the VP pick while in front, pick someone boring and inoffensive who won't cause any damage to the campaign, helps with a key constituency (in this case boosting black voter turnout by having a qualified black woman on the ticket)

domer can you fill me in on why Rice would be a bad pick in your opinion?

She's a NEOCON interventionalist who basically has already served in the administration, so less excitement. Just nothing that exciting about her. Less national profile and doesn't give any nods to progressives. Her policies are just not in step with the current Democratic party. Just kind of boring, I feel the opposite way when I watch Kamala speak. I just don't know what she brings to the table. Though I am maxed out on Harris FWIW.

Selecting Harris would be a clear signal to the lefties that Biden doesn't GAF what they think, as Harris has a record as California AG of taking a hard line on crimes of drug possession. Rewind to when the primary was just starting and you'll find the folks casting their lot with Warren and Sanders expressing a good deal of contempt and antipathy towards Harris.

Who else do they have? All these candidates have serious skeletons in the closet. Harris at least has given nods to progressives for a while. Selection needs to be a woman of color (most likely black), optics are just too bad otherwise. No one fits the bill perfectly but Harris checks the most boxes.

Harris is one of those good on paper candidates but the more you look the less you like her

On paper she's more progressive than Biden etc but as a person between the Willie Brown stuff and the tough on crime prosecutor stuff i'm not a fan at all and hope she doesn't get the nom

My personal preference would be Warren still, I don't know enough about Demings to have a real opinion

Duckworth disqualified herself with her waffling over George Washington statues this week imo statues are dumb and who cares but if she can't answer that question properly she's no chance to be a VP, as VP your job is to not screw up and that's it basically.

I still don't see much of a problem with Rice personally, she's a clear 2nd fav to Harris now which is interesting, I actually prefer her to Harris if those are the options

Duckworth is half Asian. Does that count as a woman of color? Though she probably did screw herself with the own goal on the Washington question. Majority of Americans aren't interested in hearing we stole the land for Mt Rushmore from the Lakota, or that Gutzon Borglum was a virulent racist. Both are true, but saying it when possibly campaigning for the 2nd highest office in the land is like giving your best man speech at a wedding reception and veering off into a story about how you deflowered the bride at prom back in high school.