I was responding to the post above me, by rickroll, that claimed that I was very passionate about trump.

mickey, i love you man, but c'mon, we've been in threads together were it has been discussed

you have 250 posts either on the trump thread or including "trump" directly in writing since April 9th as the search feature stops searching for more after 250

you are also the #1 poster in the trump thread and by quite a margin

to say you're not passionate about trump... c'mon man there's no need for that

If it looks like Trump is losing what is the over/under on how many more good people he will fire so he can replace them with corrupt people before he leaves office?

Other than lifetime appointments like judges (which Republicans have already stacked heavily filling tons of vacancies) it won't really make a difference as the incoming administration will clean house and fire all the Trump loyalists if he loses - the same thing happens regardless of administrations, professionals from the opposite party may keep their jobs but anyone loyal to the outgoing President and hostile to the incoming is probably going to go if it affects their ability to do their jobs

@mickey it's pretty clear you're a partisan Republican, and i'm a partisan Democrat, and neither of us are going to change our minds by November short of Trump deciding to nuke Los Angeles or Biden being a serial killer, so i'm pretty sure neither of us are the swing voter type that will be deciding the election, although obviously we're part of the base that our respective 'sides' need to turn out

As a hypothetical, if Trump decided to nuke Los Angeles (let's say he called it the base of Antifa or said too many Democrats live there and Democrats are traitors) what percentage of the vote would he get in November nationwide? Would he win a state anywhere?

I actually think he might still get as high as 15-20% though I may be way off base, although I don't think he'd outright win any states. Guesses, anyone?

This is a good bet. People on the left overestimate the likelihood that Trump will be replaced. People on the right overestimate the likelihood that Biden will be replaced. Both are very, very unlikely. And, like you said, whoever replaces them is unlikely to win. Pretty much the only way Field wins here is if one of them dies.

For those betting Biden/Democratic, what is a better bet to take?

Biden at EVEN or Democrats at -120 (as per bovada)

Biden could die, withdraw his nomination due to health, politics, etc in the next 6 months.

If you think there's a greater than 5.5% chance he withdraws, the -120 is a better bet. I think most people in this thread would say he has less than that chance of not being the nominee.

I'd be taking Biden at this point. Might take Dems at like -107 or something since Biden's old but he's only not going to be the nominee if he dies at this point he's officially got the delegates to be the nom and is not going to be replaced, the Qanon conspiracy crowd can be safely ignored

Betfair has Biden at -103, Dems at -118 so yeah Biden at evens narrowly better if the market is correct and Betfair is very liquid on the Presidential race

you could replace Biden with any generic D candidate and the odds would not change much. lotta people just voting against trump.

Today, yes, but in the average universe where Biden drops out, Trump is probably in very good shape.

Yeah short of the Dems specifically replacing Biden with Clinton or Sanders I can't imagine there would be too huge a difference as long as it's not someone who would entice the black community to stay home (Klob or Pete basically)

If they choose a random Cuomo type or whoever I don't see him doing significantly worse or better than Biden, Biden's campaign is basically 'hey i'm Obamas best friend and remember how in 2008-16 the world didn't burn the way it has during Trump's admin? I'm not Trump and i'm safe!'

Which to be fair when Trump is as unpopular as he is should be a winning message a decent % of the time I can't imagine anyone would have though Trump nearly starting a war with Iran would be one of the most minor events of 2020. Does anyone even remember that between the coronavirus and the riots and so on?

That ship, in the form of people who can protect Trump when he leaves office, has sailed in the form of judicial appointments. Trump will pardon himself, perhaps even declare himself immune from prosecution at the state level. Of course, that's ridiculous, but once he gets in front of friendly judges, he'll win.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-search-304854
About 2 surprise possible vp picks.

I've been loading up on Harris for VP. Wish I was getting a better price but I still like it at +125.

“‘The time for the old playbook of getting geographic balance on the ticket has gone out the window with Sarah Palin,’ said former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (D-Ill.), the first African American woman to serve in the Senate and a Biden surrogate.”

Putting the governor of Alaska on the ticket was a move made in the name of “geographic balance”? How do these people get elected?

Well, see, McCain was from a very hot state, so he had to balance it out with a very cold state.

I was quickly convinced in the possibility that Bottoms would be considered because a poster here, who we will not name, was begrudgingly right. In todays politics, the most important thing is optics. Bottoms is an attractive woman, and she has some name recognition and is well spoken.
Abrams on the other hand is just not an attractive woman.
Val Demings, I must admit, was not on my radar.
Oh well. I too am fallible.

I also saw a CNN article where Bottoms was fifth among the top ten according to them but I can't seem to find the article anymore.

Not that Republicans will admit it but wasn't the main reason Palin was on the ticket because she was a woman?

At this point I want to believe it's not Kamala Harris but obv she's well positioned for it

I have no real read on whether Bottoms or Demings etc are more viable or even Abrams/Rice/etc out of the various alternatives

It does seem like Biden does want to pick a black woman given the prices etc though

Warren would make a good majority leader willing to get her hands dirty to advance any progressive agenda if the Dems can retake the Senate somehow if they win, it does look like the hype for Warren as VP has died down and I probably wouldn't bet it anymore

I still don't have anything on the election yet, still think D is the right side as things stand with 5 months left, once we get to about 3 months out if nothing has fundamentally changed it'll be getting very late for Trump to change the narrative etc so I might start considering it and I doubt we see -200 anytime soon even with Biden leading by double digits in most polls atm that'll likely tighten at some point when Trump stops saying and doing stupid things briefly so the price may improve whenever that happens

Easy, Donald Trump.

?
Donald Trump for vise President?
He's good looking and we'll spoken?
What do you mean Mickey?

Has anyone here been keeping an eye out for Arizona?
According to FoxNews, (this is public info I'm sure all of you probably know already, just pointing it out), Mark Kelly leads M.Mcsally by 50% to 37%.

And Biden is up over Trump by 46% to 42%

Arizona is already decent lean Dem for Senate and will go to the winner of the election in the general

electoral-vote.com has the most recent polling for senate etc, even Mitch McConnell is in trouble if current polling holds up (it's unlikely to and I expect he wins, but right now polling is so bad for Trump and the Republicans than even Graham and McConnell would be in play if the election was held today; although again I expect both to win still)

The Senate is very much in play, Colorado is basically a win for Hickenlooper, Colorado is a blue state now and he's a popular ex governor who is up 20% in the polling

McSally lost in the midterm and Presidential years tend to have higher turnout so she's in some trouble and Kelly is polling ahead of her in AZ-Sen

Gideon is polling ahead of Collins in Maine who has somewhat lost her maverick status in a blue state after Kavanagh and Trump etc.

The Dems only loss will be Doug Jones who is drawing dead in Alabama because he's not up against Roy Moore this time so they need to gain 4 seats if they win the Presidency

With the above that's a net gain of two, then there's Montana which will go for Trump but Steve Bullock is ahead in the polls as a popular Democratic ex governor there and Jon Tester and before him Max Baucus were Dem Senators in MT so they can win statewide, that would get them to the 4 they need if they win the Presidency, then beyond that they have a few chances incase they lose one of the above in NC and IA with a slim chance at GA given the R candidates various scandals and GA getting bluer or even Lindsay Graham or Mitch McConnell's seats given their personal unpopularity (although I think both are out of reach it could happen in a landslide scenario where Trump's position continues to worsen before election day)

I think the Senate is probably going to go to the party that wins the white house, although if it's close and Biden just squeaks home there's a good chance it ends up exactly 50-50

The best case for Republicans is probably breakeven in a scenario Trump is somehow reelected, Colorado is gone and they'll win Alabama. The rest are up in the air, although Arizona at least is lean Dem and there are a ton of flips all of which are R held

Well shiver me timbers. Trump is trailing just about everywhere.