Seems like a good time to throw down as much money on Warren before the line moves.

The Trump impeachment thing is interesting, because usually in these political disagreements, people are talking about completely different things. You talk about race relations and leftists picture an educated black gentleman in a suit in a nice car which he did not steal, driving the speed limit, sober, and maybe he has a tail light out, and the cops stop him, pull him out of his car and beat him to death just because. The right pictures a known thug with a long rap sheet who has just done something suspicious like steal from a shop or is loitering in a dark alley, then resists arrest, and police use force to bring him to heel. And then the left and right disagree over racism in America. This, at least, you can understand. You can see how one side is not understanding the other.

But in the case of this phone call, we have the transcript. People are reading the exact same words, and each side looks at it and interprets a completely different reality. I don't know what to make of that.

Using the small and smaller sample of those in my fairly large circle the reason I have heard makes some sense. Several I know who voted Obama either didn't vote due in 2016 to their inability to pull the Hillary lever or voted Johnson, which they failed to recognize was essentially a Trump vote. These same people are now on board with a ABT (Anyone But Trump mentality) so I'm not sure how much a poor Democratic candidate matters in 2020 as it did in 2016 (it will to a degree but much less than after what we know now)......while recognizing that every candidate is severely flawed. It cannot be ignored that aside from the non-voters due to Hillary being their only legitimate option you have Trump failing several of those swing states where the ABT rally could really hit him as well.

My prediction: Trump loses critical swing states and throws a tantrum on the voting process while refusing to accept the results or leave office. All hell breaks loose.

Already too late. The numbers shifted immediately a couple days ago. She is now the heavy Democratic favorite ahead of Biden and 3-1 to win Presidency which also narrowed the gap on the winning party with the GOP now nearing almost a Pick em.

Same thing as watching the replay of a close call in a football game. Each team's fans are seeing the exact same video, but they'll have 180-degree opposite interpretations. It's hard to remain unbiased in the face of tribal loyalty.

Right, I was only mentioning it because its interesting to see how heavily one line affects the other. Does a 30 point swing in impeachment odds move the "will he finish his first term" line a lot? If so, how much? I wonder what the latter line would be if impeachment does actually happen.

Senate will never reach the numbers needed to impeach Trump. And if they ever did I honestly fear the road this country would be headed down. Trump supporters are very loyal and armed to the teeth. It could end very badly.

I've just come to the conclusion that they just don't care about the truth anymore. It doesn't really matter how much evidence you show certain people it will never change their mind.

My mind was blown after the Michael Brown incident. Even after all the video evidence they just don't care.

It's like trying to disprove Islam to goat herders in the mountains of Afghanistan.

That's why I just try to stay ignorant on all topics these days.

This is the scenario I bet will never happen. The people who are always the loudest about violence are always the last to act.

Politicians are very much self-interested survivors. For the GOP, right now, that means sticking as close to Trump as possible. If enough evidence comes to light that Trump's approval rating among Republicans drops to, say, 50%, you'll start seeing the Senate acting a lot more independently.

They'll never vote to convict, though. If it got that bad, Trump would probably resign rather than hold through to the bitter end.

And at that point, what are the hardcore loyalists going to do? You might have a couple nutcases do some mass shootings, which would make it a normal Tuesday in America.

Ill take -10000 on trump ever resigning

Exactly. I'm not saying it's a likely scenario, but I kind of wish the Dems would just try to win at the ballot box instead of doing this. Just because it seems like a lose-lose, majority of the country doesn't want Trump impeached.

I was watching real time and they were talking about how even with the impeachment inquiry, actually removing trump from office is never going to happen and everyone knows it. But then they go "but we have to do it cuz its the RIGHT. THING. TO DO." And the audience went crazy. Dems have GOT to stop thinking like this. Its their problem with policy too...they want to things that seem or 'feel' like the right thing but dont have the evidence to back it up.

I think this impeachment stuff is a bad move for the Dems but we shall see. Id be looking to bet trump to win the election in the next couple weeks or so when his odds bottom out.

Looks like Bernie had a heart attack. Everybody's talking about stents not being a big deal, but the press release his campaign put out is entirely consistent with a heart attack preceding the stents. He "experienced some chest discomfort" and was "found to have a blockage in one artery." That could be either a heart attack or just angina. You'd think if he hadn't had a heart attack, they'd have said that to tamp down speculation.

Seems silly to think when this same scenario happened 20 years ago. It worked amazingly for Rs. They knew Clinton wouldn’t be removed from office and still did it. Republicans reigned supreme for a long time after that

My basis for why Trump won’t win again is two fold. His opponent was hated massively and still gained the voting majority. The second is swing states such as MI and MN have went back to D. They won’t be giving him points in 2020.

Just covered my Kamala Harris short on Predictit (shorted her to win the Nomination and to win SC.) Only made a couple hundred, but there is something especially satisfying about making money betting against her, she's fake as f*ck and I can't stand her.

Side question: Do you think Tulsi Gabbard will be getting a Christmas card from her this year?

I see people quoting historical facts like this often in order to indicate a precedent for what has happened before. The game has changed, all of this is out the window.

This seems like the blow from which Harris won't be recovering. It's the Dems version of the Marco Rubio beatdown by Chris Christie.

He apparently canceled TV ads in Iowa too, Warren is full steam ahead at this point.

I don’t think the population in a macro sense has changed all that much

I imagine we are part of 1% or less that actually read the transcript. The spin is all that matters, the truth be damned. Sadly, the only thing that moves the needle is the PR battle in the aftermath of an event like this.

Even though the transcript was benign, it doesn't matter because nobody read it. The left was more unified and controlled the media narrative. Trump did himself a great disservice by pivoting to investigations and the nonsense about spies / treason. Therefore the left comes out looking more reasonable and thus the impeachment numbers rise.

Of course, anybody who actually reads the transcript would realize this is ridiculously overblown and much ado about nothing. That's just not the way this society works.

Interesting. I read the transcript and I thought it was 100% unambiguous that Trump illegally asked the Ukrainians to dig up dirt on a political opponent.

we really are in trouble as a country I think

I agree but Trump supporters are sooooo f*cking stupid, they'll believe anything that he's selling.

That's what is so interesting about the transcript, it is the ultimate Rorschach test.

And I think on the Dem side of things it's very clear at this point that it will be Biden or Warren (and I'm happy to report I have big positions on both.) I think at this point Biden is undervalued relative to his polling numbers and Warren is overvalued, but Warren has momentum and that counts for a lot.

I picked up a bit of Bernie to win New Hampshire at 10 and 11 cents yesterday after the news broke, I think he's got a decent chance there. And I hope he's OK, he seems like a genuinely good man and a person of strong character.