i hope you all are making a nice, tidy profit off of our conversation here. i know i am! psychic profit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/26/u...olls-2020.html

Biden drops into 3-way tie with Sanders and Warren

Warren still at +500, starting to look pretty juicy.

and why is this a good gambling opportunity? or are you just keeping us informed of things that don't matter

well, i don't know about you all, but i intend to vote for the first time in a long time for this election. i will be placing my vote for whichever candidate i believe will most help bring the inevitable economic collapse of the United States empire. my current favorite for this is Bernie Sanders, but i am open to suggestions.

LOL. Of course. Now it allllll makes sense.

do tell, i am so glad u have figured me out now.

Added to my no-hopers shorts, selling Buttigieg at 7 and Harris at 11. YouGov came out with some early-state polls, and Biden/Warren/Sanders are the only ones in double digits anywhere. So basically I'm short everyone except Biden and Warren, for a total price of 78. Could short Biden here for a guaranteed profit and a freeroll on Warren, but as I said earlier I think he's still the favorite.

Yang is, hilariously, up to 12% to win.

Comey is still trading in the high teens to be indicted this year. I guess he's a frequent target on Fox News and such? Anyway, the message board on that bet is insane.

Took a long position on Netanyahu getting indicted, at 25-28%. Basically it's a bet that Likud will not be in the ruling coalition of the Knesset after the September elections. Israeli politics are like a soap opera with all the different personalities and feuds, and like 10 parties. I have no idea what the inter-party wrangling will produce, but I think there's at least a 25% chance that the spring elections repeat themselves and Netanyahu gets thrown overboard somehow.

it doesn't sound like you're a part time pro anymore

That was like 15 years ago! I went from part-time pro to full-time pro and now occasionally-on-my-lunch-break pro.

Yang vs Cruz in 1 on 1 basketball? Tell me how this is not printing $ for Yang.

oh yes i remember u, hard to forget that screenname and i'd scratch my chin pondering it here and there. well done.

CodythePATRIOT quit coming to us with your "made-up" bets. what is a "made-up bet" you may be wondering, ask Like he will explain it to you (on Reddit, if you're properly respectful)

also are you ****ing kidding me dude. have you ever played against an Asian in basketball? particularly a dumb one. Cruz is 5'11" Yang is 5'7" they are both brown people, ez advantage cruz

Castro just essentially called Biden senile on national TV. Wow.

wow

I know... pretty crazy.


I don't really see anything that moved the needle last night. This is looking more and more like Warren's race to lose. To me it looks like she's going to get the nod. I would say that it was Biden's best debate and he still had a few gaffes.

My takeaways:
This debate will have very little effect on the polls.

-Biden was reasonably sharp in the first half, got worse as the night went on. His answer to the legacy of slavery was a meaningless word soup. He doesn't have Alzheimer's, but he's definitely showing his age. As long as the general election matchups have him beating Trump easily, he'll stay the frontrunner.

-Warren is a true believer. Holy crap, if she wins the presidency she is going to try to fundamentally remake American life. Clear answers, well spoken, and her opponents somehow can't find a way to attack her. Her efficacy against broader audiences will be harmed by her intensity, which should go from a 9 to like a 7.

-Harris is the opposite, believes in nothing. She's going for Female Obama, but doesn't have the talent to pull it off.

-Bernie looked and sounded infirm. He doesn't have another gear. All downhill from here for him.

-Yang is hopelessly outclassed. That top shirt button was doing a lot of work there. He looked like he was going to cry after he started to answer the "Why are you most qualified?" question.

-Buttigieg, wow is that guy wound tight. You didn't see a single unprepared word out of him. He and Klobuchar (whom I've taken to affectionately calling The Klob) are competing to inherit Biden's votes if he stumbles.

-The Klob had her best debate, and I thought came off as a worthy centrist. It's too bad her introduction to the national stage was about how she's abusive to her staffers.

-Booker needs to get his lazy eye fixed. Between that and his hairless skull, he comes off like a robot stuck in the Uncanny Valley.

-Beto, Castro: You guys are still here? Why? Beto could have been a genuine phenomenon if Texas were 2% bluer. It wasn't, and now he looks like a weird loser.

Overall I think the race comes down to Biden and Warren, and Biden's coalition of blacks and moderates beats Warren's white liberals.

I know Im as biased as anyone else but man oh man, I just cannot imagine any of these people winning a general election. It was just like "this country is terrible and racist and heres how I am going to end racism" over and over. I think the fact that Biden is at all some sort of favorite shows how weak the field is. I think people just want a grown up, because a lot of the things thrown around last night were pretty off the wall, even for a Dem only debate.

A real shame BOLplayer was banned. He seemed to have some valuable insights and contributions.

Nice recap. It looks to me like Sanders is a clear 3rd with Warren closing the gap some on Joe. Any clue as to who each will announce as their running mate? If Biden really wants to win wouldn't Michelle Obama pretty much seal the deal for him?

I think a Warren/Bernie ticket is going to be a thing.

I'm not sure Michelle would do it. If she had really wanted to get into politics herself, she would have started building up her resume by running for Senate or governor somewhere, a la Clinton in 2000.

And I'm not sure she'd be that big a benefit in the campaign, either. Right now she has a generally positive glow, because she's associated with the best aspects of the Obama White House, and never did anything all that controversial. Reminds me of how Hillary Clinton had her highest approval ratings when she wasn't actually involved in a campaign:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultur...p1992-2016.png


Biden, I really don't know. He could go a lot of different ways. My first thought is a Midwestern governor / senator to focus on taking back the Rust Belt. Sherrod Brown, Gretchen Whitmer, Tom Wolf? Someone reasonably young, but not so young that it draws an unflattering comparison.

I doubt he'll go too far left. There was talk earlier this year that he might enter the primaries having already committed to Stacey Abrams, which would have been a great move, but it would have been great for the primary, not the general. He doesn't necessarily need to energize the base, since they'll be eager to vote for anyone against Trump.


After Obama won the primary in 2008, I said that Old White Guy was a lock for VP. If Warren or Sanders win, they're also going to go Reassuring White Guy. The field there is so vast it's hard to name names.

Warren would never pick Bernie. The only way this could possibly happen would be if there were a contested convention and Bernie's delegates could put Warren over the top.

The Democratic ticket will 100% have some kind of intersectional credibility. There is no way that the Dems put up to older straight white men.

lol is "intersectional credibility" a bizarre way of saying "not white male"?

It's the academic way of saying it.