2019 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread - Page 4 - Sports Betting

Have you SEEN them play?

I had some level of hope for them after the KC game given the three quarters of shutout against Mahomes but then they were a big bucket of suck getting 9 (or more) against a moribund Viking offense last week...

Not a huge fan of the Colts but I see them easily covering even taking into account their kicking woes.

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09-27-2019 , 04:15 PM

#77

The Bukafax

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by michelle227

Yeah. I’m basing it off of rush heavy, check down drives eating time or dead drives based on a low YPP. -7 is probably the safer option for the push.

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09-27-2019 , 11:05 PM

#78

The Bukafax

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Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,520

I went with

Titans ML +165
OAK +7 -112

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09-28-2019 , 08:40 AM

#79

Team_Josh122

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 841

Week 4

14-6-1 on the season, 4-4 last week

CAR +4
LAR -9
DAL -2.5
OAK +7
NYG -3

6 pt Teaser
KC -1
NE-1
LAR -2

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09-29-2019 , 12:18 AM

#80

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

Up $2,980 on the NFL season so far with an almost 27% ROI. It's still early though and I'm running good.

Don't claim to be an expert on NFL betting, so take these picks with a grain of salt, but this week I really like the Bengals, they're my biggest bet and have them both moneyline at +174 and ATS at +4.

Also have Raiders +7, Raiders +253, Chiefs -7, Chiefs -6.5, Jaguars +145 (small bet), Vikings +114, Bucs +10.5, Panthers +190, Browns +255, Patriots -7, and Patriots / Bills under 42.

I think the Bills are really gonna struggle to score against the Patriots, who might just be the best defensive team in the league.

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09-29-2019 , 01:48 AM

#81

AllInNTheDark

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 3,256

Last week: 4-4-1
Season: 13-9-1

KC -7
NE -7
TEN +3.5
JAX +3

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09-29-2019 , 12:17 PM

#82

Gonefishingmlb

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 101

Last week: 2-1-1

Ravens -7
Lions +7
Titans +3.5
Skins +3

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09-29-2019 , 02:53 PM

#83

JoeSlim

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 275

Need an offshore or Vegas local offering Saints +3 -115 or better. I've used up Bovada, and MyBookie.ag is sh*t.

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09-29-2019 , 04:28 PM

#84

The Bukafax

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bukafax

I went with

Titans ML +165
OAK +7 -112

Woohoo. I went big on both. Glad there wasnt even a sweat.

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09-29-2019 , 06:03 PM

#85

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bukafax

Woohoo. I went big on both. Glad there wasnt even a sweat.

Good call on the Titans. Regret not betting that one myself.

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09-30-2019 , 12:50 AM

#86

Malachii

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Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

Bruce Arians is a vastly underrated coach.

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09-30-2019 , 12:05 PM

#87

michelle227

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,177

Have to concede my error on the Raiders...still won't play them for a while.

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09-30-2019 , 02:33 PM

#88

The Bukafax

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Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malachii

Looks like a solid week, damn. I’m gonna throw some down on Cincy ML too depending on the odds.

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10-01-2019 , 05:59 PM

#89

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bukafax

Looks like a solid week, damn. I’m gonna throw some down on Cincy ML too depending on the odds.

It was a good week but I ate **** on Cincinnati, lol. I'm done betting them for the year, they were awful last night.

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10-01-2019 , 08:51 PM

#90

The Bukafax

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Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malachii

It was a good week but I ate **** on Cincinnati, lol. I'm done betting them for the year, they were awful last night.

Yeah I did poor as well lol. I went CIN ML and +3.5.

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10-03-2019 , 02:47 AM

#91

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

I obviously don't like paying -900, but can somebody walk me through a scenario where the Redskins actually beat the Patriots? I just don't see it.

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10-03-2019 , 04:24 AM

#92

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,760

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malachii

I obviously don't like paying -900, but can somebody walk me through a scenario where the Redskins actually beat the Patriots? I just don't see it.

people said same thing about the dolphins beating them the other year too

in situations like this, i'd rather find a correlated outcome to winning like taking the over or the spread where you aren't risking a lot for a little

this -900 type things are what always gets me in trouble in sports betting, like taking a "free dollar" betting on the team up by 20 at halftime... that bet will fail just frequently enough to bite you in the ass

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10-03-2019 , 09:29 AM

#93

hesse113

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 75

Vegas is literally begging you to take HOU -5.

Hate to see that. Would go ATL vs. spread there. On the surface, picking ATL makes no sense. Thus, a solid pick.

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10-03-2019 , 09:31 AM

#94

hesse113

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 75

Quote:

Originally Posted by michelle227

Not a huge fan of the Colts but I see them easily covering even taking into account their kicking woes.

I think most everyone sees them easily covering. Doesn't that make you suspicious?

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10-03-2019 , 09:57 AM

#95

The Bukafax

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Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by hesse113

I think most everyone sees them easily covering. Doesn't that make you suspicious?

She was talking about Raiders/Colts last week. Raiders beat them SU.

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10-03-2019 , 10:08 AM

#96

The Bukafax

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Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,520

I think my fave pick this week is ARI ML +148

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10-03-2019 , 10:46 AM

#97

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,744

CHI is lock of week

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10-03-2019 , 04:38 PM

#98

Gonefishingmlb

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 101

Why is Bears a lock? My homework shows Raiders with the spread and might win SU.

YTD 4-3-1

Seahawks -1.5

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10-03-2019 , 04:46 PM

#99

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickroll

As a matter of general principal, you are of course 100% right. I'm the assh*le who lost a grand when South Korea beat Germany in the last game of the World Cup qualifier, haha.

But I pulled the trigger on this one. I think the Skins have quit on their coach and want him to be fired, I think Tom Brady is pissed off about the offense last week and wants to kick ass, and I think the Patriots are the best defensive team in the league. So hopefully they win!