Cam is the shittier version of Bryce Harper of the NFL. One amazing MVP year. Rest of the years? Not so good and sometimes god awful.

IND +3
CIN Pk

We're the browns really good or we're the jets awful?

Offence line of jets could not stop browns defence.

Dolphins look like they could easily go 0-16.

Last week: 4-3
Season: 9-5

BUF -6
SF -6.5
WAS +4

Not sure I would call the Browns "really good." Jets were in the 'truly awful' category though. They will need to get a serviceable quarterback signed quickly because Falk won't get the job done as a dink and dunker.

Browns have precisely zero tempo and you also cannot rely on chunk plays...they were saying this morning that three OBJ plays accounted for almost 40% of the Browns yardage.

I expect to see the Dolphins win one SOMEWHERE in the season. After all, they DO have the Jets on the calendar twice AND have a game against Pittsburgh remaining on the schedule. Not that I am going to bet them on the money line in those, but the spreads should be interesting...could be the only single-digit spreads that they see the rest of the way.

They will be double digits @PIT, I'd guess ~ +14.

Their best chances at win are vs. Jets (esp. if Darnold still out), Wash (following bye), and Bungles (week 16).

Haha yup. Delighted to report that I got $500 on Arizona moneyline at +120 before Cam Newton's injury was reported. I didn't know that he was injured, but after watching him in the second half of that TB game I didn't see any way in hell that Carolina should be favored on the road against an AZ team that looks surprisingly good.

I'm up about $800 betting on the NFL so far this year. Still early though, and I got very lucky to win my Detroit bet against the Chargers.

My bets for Week 3:
Giants +7
Giants +250 moneyline

Cardinals +120
Cardinals +3

Broncos +9 (small bet)

Rams -3
Bengals +215
Texans +140
Bears -205 and Bears -4 because they're not this bad and the Redskins aren't as good as their 0-2 record makes them appear (lol)

Ravens +240
Lions +255
Lions +7
Saints +175

The Jets were missing their starting QB and their offensive line looked awful. Their defense played well I thought.

Browns are merely OK IMO. I expect the Rams to destroy them this upcoming week.

DET +7
AZ +2.5
LAR -3

Been wanting to post my picks each week, and after hitting an 8, 6 and 5 team parlay last week I now have the overconfidence to do so.

10-2-1 on the year

Week 3 Picks in order of confidence
ATL +2
TEN -2
SEA -4
DET/PHI O46.5
NYG +7
DEN +8


Other picks I'm considering but haven't pulled the trigger on

HOU +3
DET +7

Dallas line isn’t high enough.

I parlayed the Dolphins and Jets moneylines

Colts are the bet I liked the most today. But better odds than I took them keep popping up.

+22000?

I miss that 3+1 thread. It was fun. Got some picks today, feel free to fade.

Ravens +5
Bills -6.5
Lions +4.5
Packers -7

GB -7
BAL +5
HOU +3

+23975

F*cking crushed it today, hit on Saints, Lions, Texans, Rams, and Giants. Too bad Cam Newton sat out, his backup looks way better than he does. Hope the Bears win tomorrow, that'll be the icing on the cake for this week.

Hypothetical: Team A is -7 vs Team B. Whether you bet Team A or Team B your bet has 50% equity. What would team A's equity be if you were offered Team A -6.5? What % of the time do 7 point favorites win by exactly 7 in the NFL?

That's a good question, I believe this was covered to some degree in either Sharp Sports Betting or King Yao's book but it's been a while since I've read either.

My understanding (and I could be wrong, interested to hear what others say if they have more insight than I do) is that in general, it is worth paying a premium for at around 3 or 7 points to either get to the 3 or 7 or get off it in your favor, but otherwise it is generally better to take the best odds available to you, if that makes sense. So for example, I believe it is better to take say, -4.5 at -110 then it is to take -5 at -130, but it might be better to take +7.5 at -130 than it would be take +7 at -110.

Also I think the answer to your question would depend a lot on the makeup of the two teams. I think in general points are more valuable with lower scorer teams than higher scorer teams. So an equal amount of points would probably be more valuable with, say Jacksonville vs Denver than it would be with Kansas City vs the Rams.

Those are just kind of my general thoughts, I'm sure there are other people on this forum that could give you a better answer than I just gave you.

Yeah that does make sense. The scoring increments of 3 and 7 are worth much more than a half point at 4.5 to 5. It’s difficult to find any data of the historical accuracy of NFL betting lines. It’d be helpful to know the EV adjustment in half points. For example one book will offer -7 -105 and another will offer -6.5 -125. In this case the 0.5 point is worth 4.2% additional win %

Yeah I’m not really a datamining guy but check academic research if you really want to look into this. I read a paper by some Finance Professor a long time ago where he did a study that demonstrated that just betting home underdogs was a pretty close to neutral EV strategy. I’m sure there’s a link to some sort of dataset from that study if you dig enough, or just send an email to the guy and politely ask for it.

All available for betting at Pinnacle right now:

Patriots -6.5 -116 / Bills +6.5 +105
Patriots -7 +101 / Bills +7 -112
Patriots -7.5 +117 / Bills +7.5 -131

Browns +6.5 +113 / Ravens -6.5 -125
Browns +7 -103 / Ravens -7 -107
Browns +7.5 -120 / Ravens +108


Raiders +6.5 +105 / Colts -6.5 -117
Raiders +7 -110 / Colts -7 +100
Raiders +7.5 -131 / Colts -7.5 +117

Really like the Raiders +6.5 line.

If that Bills line moves from +7 I'd think about taking that too, 1 possession isn't enough though.