Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG
sounds like you've been doing this a while. great to have experienced bettors on board here. anytime you want to provide more in depth writeups that would be great too so we can learn from your thought process.
Whenever I get a chance to do the in-depth writeups I will. I love to talk baseball. Just a little tough with 6-7-8 picks a day. Sometimes it's as simple as "Rockies should never be +135 in San Fran..I don't care if they can't score right now..I have to take a stab at it". There's no computer or excel or anything telling me that Rockies are the play at that price. It's just years of experience I guess. Maybe it's wrong? I don't know. But I do know how Bettis pitches in AT&T Park..what his BABIP was last year..I know his spin rate etc. These are all numbers I know how to look up and over time have just ended up in my brain. Often times I don't even have to look it up..my brain makes a general summary off the information I already have had over the years. I'm wrong plenty of times..but once again as long as the ROI ends up where it should be it doesn't matter.
There's no system here. I have been betting since I was 13..and been doing parlays my whole life. I know it's -EV and etc but I am a full on degenerate and have been my whole life.
Friends started tracking my mlb singles back in 2013...and we didn't realize the strength in numbers until a couple of years back. Still haven't learned..whatever I profit off my MLB singles I blast away on 4-5 gamers. It's a long story and if you search hard enough you'll find it on the forums.
I don't want to spew random numbers from past seasons and have random people tail my picks. Nor do I want to welcome the naysayers and haters. I rather just prove it over the course of the season. When is the sample size enough really? The game changes every year. I still worry I wake up one season and I just completely "lose" it because I don't have an excel sheet spitting picks out at me. There's so much transparency in this section and I've noticed it in the syndicate thread. Actual pros sharing lines and results. I hope I can do the same and gain some credibility. Perhaps surrounding myself with professionals may help me calm down and stop me from being such a degen and shift my focus into doing this the right way for good.
To keep it simple..I may not be able to quantify a pick necessarily but if we were to go back and forth on a side I'd be able to justify my side with enough knowledge/stats to make you somewhat convinced and not feel like this idiot just makes picks off the dome.
