2017 NFL Picks and discussion thread - Page 19 - Sports Betting

Fezzik claimed to hit a 10 teamer last week at Westgate for $55k with KC -6.5 as his final leg.

He said he hedged but "not nearly enough" (his words). I wonder if he was smart enough to get +7 -110.

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10-03-2017 , 11:04 PM

#452

ChameleoOoN

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 159

Quote:

Originally Posted by LogistX

I don't know about -3 but when Bovada is shading the Bills line by 10-15c the world has gotten weird.

can u explain what u mean?

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10-04-2017 , 09:32 AM

#453

rainmaker1855

adept

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,031

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChameleoOoN

can u explain what u mean?

I think he means that the +3 isn't -110 but carries extra juice at -125 instead (+15c on the dollar more juice.)

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10-04-2017 , 11:27 AM

#454

MacGuyV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 22,298

Just don't bet football if you think the Bills should be -3 on the road.
Lemme guess you thought Denver -3 two weeks ago was "sketchy" low.

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10-04-2017 , 11:30 AM

#455

ARCANGEL0

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 2,799

Think pats are gonna close at -6.5 -juice or something

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10-04-2017 , 06:05 PM

#456

ChameleoOoN

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 159

Quote:

Originally Posted by MacGuyV

Just don't bet football if you think the Bills should be -3 on the road.
Lemme guess you thought Denver -3 two weeks ago was "sketchy" low.

I guess so, I definitely think they would be favored after their recent performances vs the bengs. Maybe im alone on this thought process. Just trying to recognize things and improve.

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10-04-2017 , 06:14 PM

#457

LogistX

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 480

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChameleoOoN

can u explain what u mean?

Pinnacle has Bills +3 (-104). Bovada has Bills +3 (-125). Pinny usually has a 10c line (-105/-105) while Bovada usually has a 20c line (-110/-110). Based on Pinny's line, you'd think Bovada would have something like -115/-105.

While you never truly know, it's likely that a lot of Bovada bettors (read: squares) are taking the Bills. Bovada is shading their line to win more money from those people.

I said the world is weird because normally only really popular teams get their lines shaded. Not the Bills.

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10-05-2017 , 08:04 AM

#458

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Buccs 1H +3.5 -105

Leaning Buccs to cover as well but the Pats have been steaming so i'll wait for now, but one of my books has 1h 3.5 -105 vs everywhere else at 3 so taking that now. Hopefully Pats defensive woes continue, because they're def gonna score some points. +3.5 on a half at home for Buccs though seems pretty ridiculous

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10-05-2017 , 08:17 AM

#459

ChameleoOoN

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 159

o55 looks tempting because I would think they run down the field on each other, just so many points.

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10-05-2017 , 11:36 AM

#460

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

This week is so fked up. If you've been betting nfl long time you'll have the edge otherwise it's not a good week to touch. Nfl lines move so little not like college it's hard to read sometimes.

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10-05-2017 , 12:24 PM

#461

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

Quote:

Originally Posted by ARCANGEL0

Think pats are gonna close at -6.5 -juice or something

I think it's gonna drop from -5.5

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10-05-2017 , 12:24 PM

#462

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

YTD: 1-3

Bucs +5.5

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10-05-2017 , 02:01 PM

#463

rainmaker1855

adept

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,031

Tampa Bay - only NFL city Bill Belichick has never won in.

line still dropping, I see it at -4 already.

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10-05-2017 , 02:03 PM

#464

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

Quote:

Originally Posted by rainmaker1855

Tampa Bay - only NFL city Bill Belichick has never won in.

line still dropping, I see it at -4 already.

You're full of stats. I didn't even know they have never won in Tampa, love it!

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10-05-2017 , 03:45 PM

#465

Nonfiction

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,498

Bucs still +6 -115 at Bovada

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10-05-2017 , 04:52 PM

#466

FrankyRizzo

adept

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 971

+4.5 -110
+3 -120 1h
on mine

i got it earlier at +5.5 for 1 unit

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10-05-2017 , 08:12 PM

#467

wil318466

banned

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 19,154

Bucs +4.

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10-05-2017 , 08:21 PM

#468

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,015

Going with Hogan o67.5y receiving -115

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10-05-2017 , 11:32 PM

#469

wil318466

banned

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 19,154

Can I get a first down here and kneel it out? Come on Tom you prick.

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10-05-2017 , 11:35 PM

#470

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

Man that's sucky for you ... +5.5 and +6 are pretty good right now.

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10-05-2017 , 11:36 PM

#471

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

Still have time though.

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10-05-2017 , 11:42 PM

#472

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

At least hopefully most of ya'll got TB +5 and pushed and/or had multiple chances to win.

I had O54.5 lol it never had a chance at any point during that game lolz

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10-05-2017 , 11:49 PM

#473

SuperSwag

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,765

insane variance with all those missed FG.

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10-05-2017 , 11:53 PM

#474

wil318466

banned

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 19,154

That's how it goes. That kid missed all those fgs...that's what makes it annoying. Oh well.

10-8 YTD. Christ that should be 12-6. Last 2 were Heartbreakers.