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2017 NFL Picks and discussion thread 2017 NFL Picks and discussion thread

09-22-2017 , 11:50 PM
Yeah I mean the play was certainly not high level, but I can't see how anyone didn't find the Rams/49ers game entertaining, especially that 4th quarter. Houston/Cincinnati on the other hand i'll happily never see a game like that again.

Busy betting on Aussie sports and the UFC card today I guess i'll take a look at this week's games tomorrow.
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09-23-2017 , 02:37 AM
Tennessee Sea is definitely for me the most interesting game on the board. Ten def seems like the sharp team of the year, most of the pros were on them week 1 against the raiders, and I think that game really showed that the raiders are legit. Sea is one of the 3 or 4 teams that how bad their oline is really impacts every aspect of their team (ravens might move into that category now that Yanda is gone). Complete stay away game for me, but I think should tell us a lot.

Leaning Det +3, GB/Pitt teaser
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09-23-2017 , 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Balbomb
Tennessee Sea is definitely for me the most interesting game on the board. Ten def seems like the sharp team of the year, most of the pros were on them week 1 against the raiders, and I think that game really showed that the raiders are legit. Sea is one of the 3 or 4 teams that how bad their oline is really impacts every aspect of their team (ravens might move into that category now that Yanda is gone). Complete stay away game for me, but I think should tell us a lot.

Leaning Det +3, GB/Pitt teaser
now this is how it's done. nice post Balbomb. gl this weekend.
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09-23-2017 , 02:06 PM
Leaning

3-team parlay pays 6 to 1:
KC -3
DEN -3
OAK -3

4-teaser pays 2.5 to 1:
Alt/DET over 44
GB -1.5
CAR PK
Chi +13.5

KC has been trumping Chargers during this series and have won 6-straight, add on the fact that Chargers will be playing in an empty sub-30,000 seat soccer stadium and the drama regarding their front office has to be deflating their self-esteem. DEN vs Bills poses similar threat to Dallas last week to a lesser degree.

Only pick I'm on the fence about is CHI +13.5 vs PIT. ATL/DET should handily cover the over, GB trumps the awful Bengals, Panthers vs NO should be a good sweat -- but mainly Panthers defense > NO offense
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09-23-2017 , 09:26 PM
I like the under in the TEN SEA game. The combination of godawful O Line and really good defense make me think almost any Seattle matchup is good for an under in the mid 40s.

Taking the under in London as well for similar reason
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09-23-2017 , 09:28 PM
At first glance I lean Baltimore, Oakland, Tennessee and maybe KC. Guess i'll see what the lines do over next few hours and get on some of them.
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09-24-2017 , 02:52 AM
2 units on GB -2.5/PIT -1.5. Week 3 I always am looking to get value out of the 0-2 teams, knowing that a season is just about over if they get to 0-3. I just think Cinci under Marvin is stale, they don't have great outside rushers to hurt the Packers, and just have shown absolutely nothing to believe they can keep up with Rodgers, even if the packers only score 24 pts I think that is more than enough. Pittsburgh much like GB is not quite the team a lot of people expected (Clev outplayed them except they have Antonio Brown who had as a good a game as you possibly can at WR), but they really know how to win close games, and are just a much better roster than Chi and they really know how to defensively beat up on below average qbs.

Det +3- Atlanta looked pretty mediocre on the road in Chi, then absolutely everything went right against GB. I am still going with my preseason reads on them that they are a 9-10 win team at best, and the loss of Shanahan is still going to prove big for them. Robinson the LT from Detroit scares me to death, but it really seems like Stafford made a leap much like Matt Ryan did last year so I think this line is about 3 points off.

I have a lot of leans with bad teams against divisional rivals getting points, NYG/NYJ/NO but I just cant bring myself to bet any of those games for various reasons. Also was really hoping to get 3.5 on SD, but they just have zero home field advantage and there might even be more Chiefs fans at that game.
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09-24-2017 , 03:49 AM
Balt ML -161 for my first spot of the week. Early money seems to be coming against my other leans so holding off for now. I really want Caro too but it feels kind of square but I want to fade the Saints defense so badly.
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09-24-2017 , 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snuadg
+0.636U entering MNF

In addition to the pending Lions bet, I also added the following two bets:

Lions/Giants under 41 -105, Bet 0.25U to win 0.238U

Teaser: Lions +9 & Lions/Giants under 47, Bet 0.275U to win 0.25
+1.600U entering this week.

1U = $200.

Had Rams ML for TNF, $200 to win $153.80 (-130).
YTD as of 9:00 AM this morning is +2.369U

Here are the rest of my bets for this week:


Sep 24, 2017 Teaser $20.00 $84.00
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 for Game
Denver Broncos +3 for Game
Philadelphia Eagles pk for Game
Kansas City Chiefs +3 for Game
Green Bay Packers -1½ for Game
Sep 24, 2017 Teaser $10.00 $500.00
Baltimore Ravens +3 for Game
Cleveland Browns +4½ for Game
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 for Game
Miami Dolphins pk for Game
Denver Broncos +3 for Game
Houston Texans +20 for Game
New Orleans Saints +11½ for Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½ for Game
Atlanta Falcons +3 for Game
Philadelphia Eagles pk for Game
Kansas City Chiefs +3 for Game
Green Bay Packers -1½ for Game
Sep 23, 2017 Teaser $206.00 $300.00
Pittsburgh Steelers -½ for Game
Denver Broncos +3½ for Game
Philadelphia Eagles +½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $120.00 $100.00
New Orleans Saints +12 for Game
Kansas City Chiefs +3½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $110.00 $100.00
Houston Texans +19 for Game
New Orleans Saints +11½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $120.00 $100.00
Houston Texans +19½ for Game
Kansas City Chiefs +3½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $115.00 $100.00
Green Bay Packers -2½ for Game
New Orleans Saints +11½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $125.00 $100.00
Kansas City Chiefs +3½ for Game
Green Bay Packers -2 for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $115.00 $100.00
Green Bay Packers -2½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $110.00 $100.00
Cleveland Browns +5 for Game
New Orleans Saints +11½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $120.00 $100.00
Football - 463 Cleveland Browns +5½ for Game
Football - 483 Kansas City Chiefs +3½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $110.00 $100.00
Cleveland Browns +5 for Game
Houston Texans +19 for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $115.00 $100.00
Cleveland Browns +5 for Game
Green Bay Packers -2½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $130.00 $100.00
Baltimore Ravens +3½ for Game
New Orleans Saints +12½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $130.00 $100.00
Baltimore Ravens +3½ for Game
Kansas City Chiefs +4 for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $130.00 $100.00
Baltimore Ravens +3½ for Game
Houston Texans +20 for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $135.00 $100.00
Baltimore Ravens +3½ for Game
Green Bay Packers -1½ for Game
Sep 19, 2017 Teaser $130.00 $100.00
Baltimore Ravens +3½ for Game
Cleveland Browns +6 for Game
Sep 18, 2017 Money Line $200.00 $125.00
Kansas City Chiefs -160 for Game
Sep 18, 2017 Money Line $200.00 $125.00
Denver Broncos -160 for Game
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09-24-2017 , 09:45 AM
Denver -2.5 -137
Minn 1H +0.5 -109

Seems like the market moved against a few of the picks I like (including my Balt one) so probably going to go relatively light on bets this week

Last edited by SwoopAE; 09-24-2017 at 09:55 AM.
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09-24-2017 , 10:48 AM
Jacksonville should play all of their home games in the UK apparently

Bears +7.5 -119
Jets +6.5 -109
Bengals +7.5 -115
Chargers +3 -114
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09-24-2017 , 10:56 AM
let's see if this mediocre start can be overcome. Up 2 units on the year and not excelling in any particular area:

3 units each:

Packers longest TD -190
K Hunt o77.5 y rushing -115

2 units:

Sproles o57.5 y rushing + receiving -115
M Bryant o49.5y receiving -115

1 unit each:

Cowboys-Zona total sacks u5 -115
L Miller u59.5 y rushing -115
Adams o64.5y receiving -115
Thompon o3 receptions -115
kearse o47.5 y receiving -115
Decker o35.5 y receiving -115
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09-24-2017 , 11:06 AM
what book are you using for these lines rafiki?
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09-24-2017 , 11:49 AM
Giants +6 -114
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09-24-2017 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
what book are you using for these lines rafiki?
5dimes, bovada are the bulk, once in a blue moon sports interaction has a better line.
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09-24-2017 , 12:21 PM
Denver @ Buffalo
Denver Broncos (-9.5) 3.0
Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0) 2
Seattle @ Tennessee
Under (41.0) 1,85
Oakland @ Washington
Oakland Raiders (-3.0) 1,9
Atlanta @ Detroit
Detroit Lions (3.0) 1,83
Dallas @ Arizona
Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) 1,83
Houston @ New England
Houston Texans (13.0) 1,85
Cleveland @ Indianapolis
Cleveland Browns (-1.0) 1,9
Parlay
Miami @ NY Jets
Miami Dolphins ml
Pittsburgh @ Chicago
Pittsburgh Steelers(-7.5)
New Orleans @ Carolina
New Orleans Saints ml
9.0 1 unit

YTD 6-7 +2.55 units
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09-24-2017 , 12:31 PM
Texans 13.5 -103
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09-24-2017 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Texans 13.5 -103
you can still get 14's for that price fwiw
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09-24-2017 , 12:55 PM
Falcons -154
Vikings +1.5 -109
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09-24-2017 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
you can still get 14's for that price fwiw
Thanks, I saw some 14 -111 around but it wasn't at a book I had funded and didn't see any 14 -105 or anything. Which book, Bovada or something?

Beat the matchbook close anyway so it can't be too terrible. Probably should have shopped around harder.
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09-24-2017 , 01:30 PM
New around here. I guess my only contribution is that I heard on radio that by Thursday night, CG sportsbook had taken only 10 dollars on the Jets. Thought that was hilarious. Although lots of sharp money came in on Jets this morning.

Seahawks +2 .5 unit
Broncos -3.5 .5 unit
Broncos/Bills under 39.5 .5 unit
Bucs -1 1 unit
Falcons -3 1 unit
Browns -1 .5 unit
5 team teaser 1 unit to win 5 units
Steelers -1, Broncos +2.5, Patriots -8
Seahawks +8, Packers -1
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09-24-2017 , 01:41 PM
Ended up getting Indy last second too although not counting it for thread as I didn't post... if all of the games could end right now with current scores i'd be cool with going 8/8 for this round of games after a 0-1 start. Heater one time?
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09-24-2017 , 01:52 PM
Man, good thing I didn't wake up early enough to bet on the BAL vs JAX game. Where the hell did that game come from?
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09-24-2017 , 02:14 PM
K Hunt Over 107.5 Rushing+Rec Yds -115
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09-24-2017 , 04:08 PM
Chickening out on Cinci bet so adding GB -6.5 -114 to middle it. Win by 7 plz.

Kind of wanted to take Tennessee but ended up not doing it.
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