The U24 1st H looked pretty bad from the get go, not gonna lie, but that's pretty damn tilting that it takes a PI with 24 secs left in the half to put the ball on the 1 yd line and obv leads to a score to not get a push.
I seriously dunno wtf it is about this forum but every time I post a pick in a thread, it loses epicly. Lifetime I'm a slight winner but every time I post something public it turns to sht. Note to the future whenever Profbets posts a play, bet against it...will be hitting at 100% on 2+2 posts.
saw somewhere that SB losers are something like 2-15 on opening day the following season. Gotta take the homer pick with the Bears getting points and probably a little ML play too.
So Gregory, Irving and Moore are suspended on the Dallas defence. Gone from the D are Carr, Claireborne, Church and Cox. And Hitchens is out and is a big loss. Of the new drafted guys to plug the holes in the secondary, Lewis and Woods won't play. Couple new bodies that may do some damage in Taco and Nolan Caroll, and of course J-Smith the rookie. But overall that's one patchwork D from front to back, specially the secondary.
Then on top of that Zeke plays. The Giants have ample weapons even without ODB in Marshall/Shepard/Evans, plenty of talent there.
I don't see how the Cowboys score less than 21. But I really don't see how the Giants score less than 28. And yes I know they played a 10-7 game last year, a game where Dak threw 2 of his 4 INT's on the whole season. I like the over, curious if that's fishy.
Am I an idiot for wanting to bet on the Browns? I don't know football nearly as well as you guys all do, but here's what I'm thinking:
- Home opener is one of the biggest (if not the biggest) game for the Browns all season. Therefore, they should be playing with a lot of intensity and enthusiasm. Hue Jackson is a great rah rah guy and his players will play hard for him.
- Defense should be significantly better than last year with new talent and Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator. They were smashing teams in the preseason (it's preseason, I know, but still.)
- Cleveland has an improved offensive line which should complement their running game. Running the ball eats up clock.
- Le'Veon Bell held out until September 1st, so one would think there will be some f*ckups during week 1 (missed blocks, lack of coordination on runs w/ offensive line, etc.) that wouldn't otherwise be there.
Of course, counter arguments are that Pittsburgh's the significantly better team and a rookie QB making his NFL debut is probably going to turn the ball over in some dumb spots, Joe Haden might've spilled the beans if he had any insight into what the Cleveland defense was planning, just cut Calvin Pryor, etc.
Maybe it's a sucker bet, but I'm kind of tempted to take the points on them.
Goff gets his first win and LA Rams cover the 3.5 as Indy only scores 3 points total. Tolzien has 3 turnovers, equalling the total points that Indy puts on the board.
I don't look at any of those things like momentum or excitement for a home opener, etc. I personally find those lines of thought extremely unreliable/useless. I look at where the public stands and if the spreads compare to where I think they would be.
I'm probably taking the Browns, FWIW. Hard to be in rhythm first game of the season and 9 points is just a lot in this spot, at home, division game. It's either Browns or skip the game. I'd never take Pitt here.
