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Old 01-27-2016, 07:46 PM   #76
Iowa!
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Could be some value in the salami under tonight with 3 of 4 faves > -200 if you can't get full on the individual totals.
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Old 01-27-2016, 08:28 PM   #77
ProfessorEd
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by westswindon View Post
On Tampa u5.5 obv

Same good luck! It's been many in a row of winners how long can she go!! Insane run!
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Old 01-27-2016, 08:29 PM   #78
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Does this still work if I move the line to > -200?
Don't know if you have that much heat, maybe..
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:15 PM   #79
LocksNChee$e
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

I took the under 5.5 in the tampa bay game too but after watching all 20minutes of that first it could have easily been 3-1.

Parlay: Tampa Bay Lightning ML + LA Kings ML (+108)
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:19 PM   #80
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

So far so good, dropped a unit on each of the three games.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:40 PM   #81
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Dropped a lazy $1,000 on Tampa game.

I'm already counting my chickens.
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Old 01-27-2016, 10:15 PM   #82
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by LocksNChee$e View Post
I took the under 5.5 in the tampa bay game too but after watching all 20minutes of that first it could have easily been 3-1.

Parlay: Tampa Bay Lightning ML + LA Kings ML (+108)
I have the same parlay for 2u, hope we can ship. I was going to hammer Washington tonight for 5u and backed off, luckily for me.
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Old 01-28-2016, 01:24 AM   #83
LocksNChee$e
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

That last minute of play in Calgary almost gave me a heart attack. Just like this 2nd period in the Kings game.

Good thing I faded a lot of stats and went with "who's the hotter team" and "who wants to finish on a better note"
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Old 02-06-2016, 02:28 AM   #84
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

ducks coyotes game qualified n lost fwiw. not sure of update record on year
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Old 02-06-2016, 11:57 AM   #85
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by LocksNChee$e View Post
That last minute of play in Calgary almost gave me a heart attack. Just like this 2nd period in the Kings game.

Good thing I faded a lot of stats and went with "who's the hotter team" and "who wants to finish on a better note"
yes always sound strategies.
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Old 02-06-2016, 02:19 PM   #86
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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come ooooon dude



lol guys bookies arent genius's but they arent mentally challenged either. I refuse to believe this level 1 thinking is even close to good enough to solving nhl markets.
Sooo jelly.
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Old 02-06-2016, 02:34 PM   #87
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

I am. Ive spent so much time on nhl this year lol if this is just clicking along at like 20% roi all year im gonna be pissed.
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Old 02-12-2016, 03:34 PM   #88
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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ducks coyotes game qualified n lost fwiw. not sure of update record on year
Yes, I saw this thread and that happened to be my first sweat bet.

0-1
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Old 02-13-2016, 11:54 AM   #89
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Sharks/Arizona
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Old 02-15-2016, 03:25 AM   #90
Suiii
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by dfb89 View Post
Sharks/Arizona
i've been following this thread since dec but started farming since january. when my nhl bankroll is at +1k, i will do 300 units. i believe its 37-5 ytd

01.21.2016 dal -110 +100
01.23.2016 bos -125 +100
01.23.2016 dal -110 +100

01.25.2016 dal -110 +200
01.27.2016 tbl -125 +200
-= all star =-
02.05.2016 ana -140 -280
02.13.2016 sjs -110 +200 overall +620

goodluck everyone.
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Old 02-16-2016, 09:32 AM   #91
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Sample size is much too small to drawn any conclusions. Even when analyzing data over the past 10 seasons. I appreciate you starting this thread and posting your results nonetheless Ed. And more power to you. It would be cool if you were onto something! It is much more likely that you are just running well, however.

Last edited by BaconMe; 02-16-2016 at 09:41 AM.
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Old 02-16-2016, 10:09 AM   #92
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by BaconMe View Post
Sample size is much too small to drawn any conclusions. Even when analyzing data over the past 10 seasons. I appreciate you starting this thread and posting your results nonetheless Ed. And more power to you. It would be cool if you were onto something! It is much more likely that you are just running well, however.
Just let the man be good...
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Old 02-16-2016, 04:14 PM   #93
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by BaconMe View Post
Sample size is much too small to drawn any conclusions. Even when analyzing data over the past 10 seasons.
Why does no one seem to understand that statistical significance is dependent on sample size AND winrate?

A sample size of 35 is plenty to draw conclusions from if the winrate is high enough. A record of 31-4 is 6.6 std deviations above a mean of 52.4% and is plenty enough to draw conclusions from. http://sportsbettingcalcs.com/#ttest_calculator

Arguing that one season is a fluke is a perfectly valid argument, but to argue sample size = small therefore it can't be statistically significant is completely ignorant of how statistics works.
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Old 02-16-2016, 04:29 PM   #94
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by andr3w321 View Post
Why does no one seem to understand that statistical significance is dependent on sample size AND winrate?

A sample size of 35 is plenty to draw conclusions from if the winrate is high enough. A record of 31-4 is 6.6 std deviations above a mean of 52.4% and is plenty enough to draw conclusions from. http://sportsbettingcalcs.com/#ttest_calculator

Arguing that one season is a fluke is a perfectly valid argument, but to argue sample size = small therefore it can't be statistically significant is completely ignorant of how statistics works.
Because these NHL unders are usually being dealt at -110, right?
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Old 02-16-2016, 05:07 PM   #95
andr3w321
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

No of course not and I addressed that earlier in the thread. I'm refuting the argument that small sample size = can't draw any conclusions.

The main flaw with this system is it sounds like it has been found from looking at past ATS records looking for profitable system rather than come up with what you believe is profitable system and then backtest. The only way to draw conclusions is to test it going forward. It's like 4-1 at avg odds of -120 or something so far since thread was created. Someone else can look up the exact #s.
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Old 02-16-2016, 06:26 PM   #96
BaconMe
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by andr3w321 View Post
No of course not and I addressed that earlier in the thread. I'm refuting the argument that small sample size = can't draw any conclusions.

The main flaw with this system is it sounds like it has been found from looking at past ATS records looking for profitable system rather than come up with what you believe is profitable system and then backtest. The only way to draw conclusions is to test it going forward. It's like 4-1 at avg odds of -120 or something so far since thread was created. Someone else can look up the exact #s.
How is backtesting invalidated??

If goaltenders were truly significantly better today I'm pretty sure oddsmakers would take that into account. And if they are better this season, it would be most likely a fluke, not an overall trend that you can expect to continue for years and years. Some years pitching is just better in MLB for a wide variety of reasons. Others years it's not. These trends fluctuate like the tide.

Last edited by BaconMe; 02-16-2016 at 06:32 PM.
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Old 02-16-2016, 08:50 PM   #97
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by BaconMe View Post
How is backtesting invalidated??
The spurs are 34-19 ATS this season. This is statistically significantly > 52%. Bet all the money on spurs going forward right? You see no flaw with this method of developing betting systems?
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Old 02-16-2016, 10:39 PM   #98
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by andr3w321 View Post
The spurs are 34-19 ATS this season. This is statistically significantly > 52%. Bet all the money on spurs going forward right? You see no flaw with this method of developing betting systems?
You said the only way to draw conclusions is to test it going forward. I'm saying you can use back history as data too, i.e. get as much (relevant) data as possible. The greater the sample size the better.
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Old 02-21-2016, 12:00 PM   #99
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Ducks at home to Flamers he mentioned is today 28-0 last 28
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Old 02-21-2016, 03:11 PM   #100
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Hi all, just got back from traveling. I appreciate all the feedback and research everyone has done. Maybe I'm the lucky charm...I started playing this mid/late last season and have been doing super well. I believe system is 1-1 over last week or two.

Possible play on Ducks UNDER -195 now... However, both teams last 10 average total has been 6.9 and 7.0 I think but will still play anything -200 5.5 U


However, YESSSSSS

DUCKS HAVE NOT LOST A HOME GAME TO CALGARY SINCE 2003!!!!

Ducks on a win streak coming into the game vs Flames who been struggling. Puck line?

And yes 28-0 last 28 matches they've won at home vs Calgary.
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