No.

5-4 L2 weeks
15-7 this season
Phenomenal-X since introduction to this forum.

Next!

Prof Ed posting as "big4pi06" is probably the saddest development of this thread which is saying a lot

@Poogs

You want that to be the case so badly, sorry to disappoint! Fact is I discovered this thread about the same time you did and we've been on opposite ends the entire time. That's rough.

Not sure where OP is or has been but as the arguments poured in and they were bluntly countered, I've been monitoring for a worthy rebuttal. Looks like I'll continue waiting.

why not double your next bet if the previous one lost to lock in a unit > yeah man do that

GLGL

i sorta was scratching my head over the last 2 weeks. thinking of tripling tbh

Even supposing the underlying thesis is correct, any sort of arbitrary undervalued subset that is bet based on criteria such as laid out here is impossible to predict going forward. Instead you just lose a **** ton and then figure out that you had nfi what you were doing.

But it is what it is.

The rebuttal is only a few pages back. Fubster was the torchbearer with this terse but incisive summary on page 20:

(data courtesy of Killer Sports)

A (two-tailed) binomial test on the summation of these periods leads to the following (probability estimate) confidence interval at the 95% level:

49.87% to 58.67%

Assuming an average line of about -125, the probability of success needs to be > 55.5%. There's no evidence to suggest that this criteria is met.

You and ProfEd contend that the data itself is unreliable. I'm suggesting that Killer Sports is probably more reliable than your respective personal and, by your own admission, misaligned, records.

ProfEd isolates the success of 2015 as justification that the model works. A quick binomial on the data of that season reveals a confidence interval of:

60.35% - 83.43%

Strong evidence of mis-pricing it might seem? I have my doubts.

First, in the absence of a quote price, how are we supposed to find this as evidence of mis-pricing? I assumed (above) average odds of around -125 but, for all I know, 2015 marked a trend in shorter odds. Do you happen to hold a record of the odds in that season?
Second, one of every 20 seasons is expected to fall outside the C.I so the 2015 result is not necessarily meaningful.

I mean, by all means bigp4pi, i'm willing to hear you out if you have a response. I don't mean to be disrespectful to you in any way- I just feel uncomfortable about the idea of a blind sheep leading the flock astray.

Could someone neutral who's been following this thread please summarize the actual record of this strategy? Please, no trolling. Despite having no interest in hockey, I'd be up for trying this during my upcoming Vegas weeklong Vegas trip.

Thanks in advance.[spoiler] Please, no trolling!
Im actually gonna bet this thing if it's viable...[/spoiler]

I've kind of been an advocate of the system since I heard about it probably last year. It was running super hot last year where it got to the point where they really weren't setting any under 5.5s when ML was >-200. Of course I don't know if it was because of this thread or not but it definitely happened.

This year it started out promising, although I questioned ProfEds semi-selective following of this system (I.e when he said he didn't bet certain games because line dipped below -200 but never really said what line he was following) it was doing pretty good at beginning. Fizzled out and is probably evenish since although I haven't really kept track.

These elite sports betting math gurus are probably right in the fact that it is a -EV play or neutral EV play at best. But logically, as someone who does follow hockey religiously and has played at mid to top level junior hockey, it makes sense psychology in the mind of a hockey player, as silly as that sounds.

In conclusion, nearly 100% of sports betting is -EV. So bet it if you want, fade it if you want, either way there is no need to talk down to the people that have been religiously following this, the same as there is no reason to rip on the guys who are saying ProfEd is a touting, scammer.

Gl all

I haven't been keeping up with the weirdo truther part of this thread but I guess the gist of the argument that pig4pies is making is that killersports is missing games.

I explained this before but some people learn "differently" than others, so maybe a second explanation will help.

killersports uses pinnacle closing lines. Pinnacle is considered (by and large) to be the industry standard for a wide variety of sports, and they typically offer the tightest margins for large market sports. I can't think of anywhere that has tighter NHL spreads. Because of that, a game that's -205 at bovada or whatever the hell line set you're using is going to often be something like -198 at pinnacle, and therefore it's not going to be included.

If you want to redo the whole thing and make it <-195 or whatever arbitrary endpoint you want to choose, feel free. I'll be willing to bet you that you come up loser against an average line of -130 over the past 10 years in games that fit the criteria in that database.

What are we? Your little elves?
If you're not convinced, do your own review. Do you actually think someone's going to listen to this post and do your dirty work with a view to maximizing your personal EV?

It's surely some miracle that you haven't been barked out of town before reaching the thousand post mark.

go **** yourself


die

drinking tonight poogys?

Hard to tell whether he was just having a bad day or was on ****posting PEDS.

Neither. Well drinking a little. **** those guys though

I have this system a small winner over the last 5 years but it's because under 5.5s have won blind; it has nothing to do with big favorites.

Thank you for the fair and honest description of your experience following the system over the past two seasons.
Thank you for your polite and even-handed explanation of your concerns with the system. Your opinion certainly makes sense. Thank you for making the effort to roll off your mother's basement couch long enough to throw some brown stuff against the wall in true 2+2 warrior fashion. Remember to get an xmas present for your mom this week, you know she deserves it - and she very much wants to be proud of you. Thank you for doing your part to support this valuable forum, and also for serving America's youth by showing why they should stay in school.

Lol, nice job removing the rest of my post from your quote. You know, the bit that highlights the absurdity of your request.

But you know who's more deserving of a present than my mum? Your mum. And I would know.

fyp

Nothing against you, just saving space while thanking everyone. You'll note that I also removed lots of stuff from the two thoughtful posts.

no offense, but asking for "neutral" people here to contribute information for you to make $ for something you're not interested in is not the way to go about things. You should probably let go of the comebacks and think about what you're saying.

Two people contributed very thoughtful posts in response to my polite question. Those were intelligent people who have actually followed the thread. I appreciate it, and I thanked them.

In addition, another guy trolled me, and another one typed some sort of vulgar gibberish. That's a pretty good percentage response on 2+2, especially on a long-running thread that's filled with trolling.

So, while I appreciate your advice (no offense taken), I believe that I'll continue with my approach of politely asking questions, and respectfully thanking people who answer thoughtfully. Good luck to you sir.

systems lol

is this 2002?

reminds me of the asians who sit around new baccarat shoes thinking the first 5 hands will dictate the rest of the shoe

Hi pro ed.

I am rec player and i am winning 12 units for the year i bet like 200 units in average every week with a system of my own (that OFC i will not reveal).

Can i say i beat sports?

I will jump in the wagon. And mush it real good i have that power.
Gotta understand that some people can't stand the words system and profitable in the same sentence. Let them be and keep shining pro. I will be the one showing the money next week. I am reading SW book and he talks about systems. Systems are real whether u guys believe it or not.

''The value of a system is it's ability to predict the future''
As u guys can see there is value in this system.

GLGL

all y'all

Q: Hits, do you ever feel guilty that you make your living off the backs of people who are foolishly throwing away their hard-earned money?

Thinking...



A: No.