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Old 01-02-2016, 12:28 AM   #26
fansrajoke
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Thanks for sharing this Ed. I've been following hockey for a while and the only explanation I have is if the favorite is -200 or more, ppl tend to parlaying or betting them puckline -1.5 goal (greedy.) and the ppl that have lost money on the underdog in the last two games expecting to get money back by parlaying or betting moneyline on them. These games usually ending with favorites won by ONE goal and the bookies got both sides.
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Old 01-02-2016, 08:33 PM   #27
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by fansrajoke View Post
Thanks for sharing this Ed. I've been following hockey for a while and the only explanation I have is if the favorite is -200 or more, ppl tend to parlaying or betting them puckline -1.5 goal (greedy.) and the ppl that have lost money on the underdog in the last two games expecting to get money back by parlaying or betting moneyline on them. These games usually ending with favorites won by ONE goal and the bookies got both sides.
uhhh no


Only thing I can think of is that "scoring effects" in hockey have a much bigger impact than people think. If a team is up, esp by more than 1 goal, they will allow more shots, yet they will typically be lower percentage shots. The converse (inverse?) is true for the team that is up. They will have fewer shots but they will be higher percentage ones. This generally leads to less goals than would be expected if youre only looking at shots or corsi. In this case, with a really good team playing a really bad team, the good team could be up by 2 or 3 after 1 period and then just kind of go on cruise control. I find it hard to believe this isnt factored into the market though but I suppose its possible.
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Old 01-02-2016, 09:33 PM   #28
andr3w321
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by Roger Clemens View Post
When was the current OT rule implemented?

Does o/u include OT?
Over/under bets include goals scored in OT and shootout goals(one goal awarded to team that wins the shootout)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overti...%29#Ice_hockey

The 5-minute overtime period was introduced for regular season games beginning with the 1983–84 NHL season, but with teams at full strength on the ice.[14] Overtime in the regular season was reduced to four skaters a side starting in the 2000–2001 season.[14] The "shootout" was introduced for the 2005–06 NHL regular season.[14] Previously, ties during the regular season were allowed to stand if not resolved in overtime. Starting in the 2015-16 season, overtime was reduced to three skaters a side.

I guess in games with a large favorite it is very unlikely the game goes to OT so this would favor the under. Anyone know OT % in hockey?

Edit: looks like about 14%
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Old 01-02-2016, 10:00 PM   #29
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

^if thats really the case we should all kill ourselves for not being billionaires
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Old 01-03-2016, 09:09 PM   #30
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by andr3w321 View Post
Over/under bets include goals scored in OT and shootout goals(one goal awarded to team that wins the shootout)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overti...%29#Ice_hockey

The 5-minute overtime period was introduced for regular season games beginning with the 1983–84 NHL season, but with teams at full strength on the ice.[14] Overtime in the regular season was reduced to four skaters a side starting in the 2000–2001 season.[14] The "shootout" was introduced for the 2005–06 NHL regular season.[14] Previously, ties during the regular season were allowed to stand if not resolved in overtime. Starting in the 2015-16 season, overtime was reduced to three skaters a side.

I guess in games with a large favorite it is very unlikely the game goes to OT so this would favor the under. Anyone know OT % in hockey?

Edit: looks like about 14%
If he saying bet under 5.5 how would overtime ever effect it?
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Old 01-04-2016, 12:54 AM   #31
andr3w321
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by dfb89 View Post
If he saying bet under 5.5 how would overtime ever effect it?
Good point. The only time is when it is 2-2 and each team scores in the 5 mins overtime which I'm guessing is about never. This also applies to totals of 3.5 and 1.5 but I don't see any record of those totals being listed. Blindly betting unders on 5.5 has won 53.6% of time since 2006 so should be profitable at >-116, but I suspect the average odds is almost always greater than that. There's three 5.5 totals listed for tomorrow at -117, -125, -119. Tiny sample size, but I suspect avg odds are around -120 for 5.5 totals. It's not too unreasonable to also think you could find some small factor such as a large dog vs large fav game to make up the 10 cents to make it +EV but other more respected posters seem to disagree with one line responses.
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:30 AM   #32
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Both teams can't score in OT. It's sudden death
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Old 01-04-2016, 05:11 PM   #33
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by andr3w321 View Post
Good point. The only time is when it is 2-2 and each team scores in the 5 mins overtime which I'm guessing is about never. This also applies to totals of 3.5 and 1.5 but I don't see any record of those totals being listed. Blindly betting unders on 5.5 has won 53.6% of time since 2006 so should be profitable at >-116, but I suspect the average odds is almost always greater than that. There's three 5.5 totals listed for tomorrow at -117, -125, -119. Tiny sample size, but I suspect avg odds are around -120 for 5.5 totals. It's not too unreasonable to also think you could find some small factor such as a large dog vs large fav game to make up the 10 cents to make it +EV but other more respected posters seem to disagree with one line responses.
come ooooon dude



lol guys bookies arent genius's but they arent mentally challenged either. I refuse to believe this level 1 thinking is even close to good enough to solving nhl markets.
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Old 01-04-2016, 06:10 PM   #34
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
come ooooon dude



lol guys bookies arent genius's but they arent mentally challenged either. I refuse to believe this level 1 thinking is even close to good enough to solving nhl markets.
Somehow you claim to a longterm winner yet can't figure out how screenshots work.

Clearly you got a good grasp of how smart bookies are.
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Old 01-05-2016, 12:14 AM   #35
Poogs
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

really great point and excellent post as usual thremp. you sir are a shining example of a model, contributing poster around here and we are very luck to have you back.
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Old 01-05-2016, 02:19 AM   #36
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Poogs,

Speaking of level 1 thinking, what the **** does the bookies' intelligence have to do with solving nhl? Unless you're trying to battle third world syndicates for openers I guess.

Last edited by n00b590; 01-05-2016 at 02:26 AM.
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:44 AM   #37
Mihkel05
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
really great point and excellent post as usual thremp. you sir are a shining example of a model, contributing poster around here and we are very luck to have you back.
Didn't you use to repeatedly brag about how much information you tricked people (including thremp) into giving you?

It seems very strange since most of the information was stuff like basic math.
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Old 01-05-2016, 02:54 PM   #38
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

wait. are you trying to say you arent thremp??
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:05 AM   #39
ProfessorEd
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

We have to wait until later in the NHL season until we see those -280's -320's?

I feel this system or well trend is most powerful when a team is -320 and total is 5.5
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Old 01-06-2016, 03:17 PM   #40
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by ProfessorEd View Post
We have to wait until later in the NHL season until we see those -280's -320's?

I feel this system or well trend is most powerful when a team is -320 and total is 5.5
There's going to be less opportunities for you guys to spew on these this year, fwiw.
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Old 01-07-2016, 06:54 PM   #41
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Still keeping stats/betting on this?
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Old 01-07-2016, 09:12 PM   #42
fansrajoke
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Yes, and it's still winning in the last two days (ML was not exceeded -170 though.) but at the same time under is a huge trend currently.
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Old 01-08-2016, 02:13 AM   #43
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfessorEd View Post
We have to wait until later in the NHL season until we see those -280's -320's?

I feel this system or well trend is most powerful when a team is -320 and total is 5.5
Back test it. "Feeling" can get very expensive in gambling .
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Old 01-08-2016, 05:33 PM   #44
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Why not also play the under 5? If it ends on 5 you would push, and the price is better at 5, generally +115 to +130.
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Old 01-12-2016, 04:08 AM   #45
ProfessorEd
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by pokerbobo View Post
Why not also play the under 5? If it ends on 5 you would push, and the price is better at 5, generally +115 to +130.
This does make sense, I will have to look more into this.

We do have a play for 01/12/2016

53 COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 5.5u20 5.5u20 +1.5(-183)
54 NEW YORK ISLANDERS -200


31-4 ON SEASON


I think in another month or so well see more opening lines -250 5.5 etc.

Still waiting for my next chance to bet Ducks (HOME) vs Flames ... I think it is 29-0 last 29 games at home vs Flames.
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Old 01-12-2016, 04:24 AM   #46
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Quote:
Originally Posted by andr3w321 View Post
http://killersports.com/nhl/query?sd...=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Data goes back to 2006 season. It's 773-713 for a 52% winrate. This is meaningless since they don't list avg odds laid to bet the under 5.5 total, but I suspect you are laying odds on average worse than -110 so I don't think 52% is going to be enough to win long term.

To search season by season...
http://killersports.com/nhl/query?sd...=++S+D+Q+L+!++

2015: 29-6
2014: 113-93
2013: 85-70
2012: 24-12
2011: 51-58
2010: 70-90
2009: 86-91
2008: 134-141
2007: 80-58
2006: 101-94

It has been quite profitable the last few years it looks like. I barely know the rules to hockey so I've no idea if there is some recent trend that would explain this. Maybe recent goal tenders are better than the good goal tenders back in the day or something that would result in the bad team scoring less vs really good goalies.
Thank you for your research but a quick glance you've made many, many errors on this.

However, it is has been very profitable the last few years...could be due to this

NHL has been going down on AGPG.


Good luck today all!
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Old 01-14-2016, 12:54 PM   #47
mr ryan mack
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

so sj and wash tonight?
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Old 01-14-2016, 07:23 PM   #48
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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so sj and wash tonight?
Pretty sure sj never went to -200 and wash game isn't 5.5 total.if I'm understating correctly
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Old 01-16-2016, 02:11 PM   #49
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

I think the linemakers may be catching up to this.
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Old 01-16-2016, 06:54 PM   #50
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Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

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Originally Posted by dfb89 View Post
Pretty sure sj never went to -200 and wash game isn't 5.5 total.if I'm understating correctly
Correct. It was not a play at all. I think it closed -168.
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