Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-17-2015, 03:45 AM   #1
ProfessorEd
journeyman
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 217
2015 NHL Profitable System

Currently 28-4 on the season with this NHL system I came up with. Any opinions on it?

During late last NHL season I started playing under 5.5 when team was favored by -250 or higher.

Few logics behind it;

When a team is say -240 they're expected to win. Typically they will hold the other team to little or no goals. Unlikely a +220 team will be scoring 5 goals. Should the -240 have a bad game usually the other team maybe scores a couple goals therefore putting the game under. More behind it as well but that is a little piece.



However, on the season so far... -200 or higher line with a total of 5.5 goals... the UNDER is 28-4 on the season! 1 loss couple days ago and a winner today. 1 loss was 2 goals in 30 seconds. Another loss was 4 goals in 9 minutes. The other 2 were Dallas Stars at home putting up 5 goals.


It's been very good to me and this season it has been proving it. There are two NHL play's for today... 5.5 total and -200 or higher.

Could the books be catching on and making most these 5.5 unders with big favorite high juice -130 ...?


Also, anyone have a stat check... DUCKS at home are 28-0 last 28 matches vs FLAMES.

Missed their game in November...won on puck line as well!


Cheers!
ProfessorEd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2015, 07:01 AM   #2
grumpy64
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 7,621
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Hope it keeps working for you
grumpy64 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2015, 11:23 AM   #3
Mucked Nuts
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 75
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Can't imagine this will ever fail
Mucked Nuts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2015, 11:43 AM   #4
rainmaker1855
adept
 
rainmaker1855's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Chicago
Posts: 848
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

I'd be curious to hear how the season turns out continuing this; hope is keeps paying/playing!

good luck OP
rainmaker1855 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2015, 12:12 PM   #5
Poogs
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,413
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

No chance this works going forward. Good job making some money while you did but the chances of this working long term are slim to none.
Poogs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2015, 03:24 PM   #6
TomG
veteran
 
TomG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: props manager, nolan syndicate
Posts: 3,144
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

why not double your next bet if the previous one lost to lock in a unit
TomG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2015, 03:57 PM   #7
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 6,685
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

what if you never lost 5 bets in a row and you double every time you lose but since you never lost 5 bets in a row you will technically never lose

would 2p2 give you your own handicapping forum

also you need to be an ex bookie
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2015, 04:01 PM   #8
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 6,685
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

oh wow i went to check on ace-ace and he's still doing that

and choptalk is back
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2015, 01:05 AM   #9
The IRS
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 232
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

xxxx - 1 Dec 17, 2015 12:35 PM Total $1,000.00 $1,060.00 Win
Hockey - 17 Calgary Flames/Dallas Stars under 5˝ +106 for Game

ONLINE
12/17/2015
07:48 AM
[ # xxxx ] STRAIGHT BET
( Risking: 1,200.00 - To Win: 1,000.00 )
WIN
12/18/2015 @ 02:45 PM NHL [16] TOTAL u5.5 -120 (EDMONTON vrs CHICAGO)
Score: EDMONTON(0) - CHICAGO(4)
WIN
$1,000.00 $16,706.27

2-0 again today easy money guys (well actually 1-0 dallas might not count since it closed at -193 but it was above -200 for a while so we'll count it)
The IRS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2015, 02:11 AM   #10
ProfessorEd
journeyman
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 217
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

The IRS...You're WELCOME Good hit.


It did go 1-0 today... border line on the other one.. -193 close -200 some places. But that won too.

I couldn't agree more to the prior posters that there is no profitable blind sports betting software. However, this cannot be a lucky run. And truthfully the LOSSES were brutal losses.

Now 29-4 on the season.
ProfessorEd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2015, 08:13 PM   #11
dfb89
old hand
 
dfb89's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: canada
Posts: 1,205
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Pretty good trend
dfb89 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2015, 06:13 PM   #12
ProfessorEd
journeyman
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 217
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Quote:
Originally Posted by dfb89 View Post
Pretty good trend
Couple of plays for tonight it seems.

Columbus vs Florida Under 5.5 (-200 Florida)

Arizona vs Colorado Under 5.5 (-210 Colorado)
ProfessorEd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2015, 06:14 PM   #13
ProfessorEd
journeyman
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 217
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

System is 29-4 on season with tonight's plays pending.
ProfessorEd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-28-2015, 12:19 AM   #14
ProfessorEd
journeyman
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 217
Spade Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System



31-4 on the season

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
ProfessorEd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-28-2015, 12:21 AM   #15
ProfessorEd
journeyman
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 217
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

All I can say these are the type of numbers that sports touts use to sell the big game!

Legit figures!

A+++++++
ProfessorEd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-28-2015, 04:57 AM   #16
westswindon
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 2,117
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

This is brilliant, I'm going to blindly follow until I'm busto
westswindon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 09:19 PM   #17
The IRS
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 232
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

I actually think this system probably has a small advantage long term for a lot of subtle reasons. Of course, handicapping the games and or relentless steam chasing (but not too early in the NHL, good god) is a better approach as you never know when the market will account for things.
The IRS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-30-2015, 02:59 PM   #18
Poogs
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,413
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

this is absurd. there is no possible way this wins in the long run.
Poogs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-31-2015, 06:00 PM   #19
Sabaneta
adept
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 974
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Did it occur to anyone to simply backcheck other years?
Sabaneta is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-31-2015, 08:31 PM   #20
TomG
veteran
 
TomG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: props manager, nolan syndicate
Posts: 3,144
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

can't argue with success boys.

that said, at some point the market will correct and this will no longer be profitable. bc there is no way to know when that happens, come up with a stop loss limit in advance and stick to it.
TomG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-31-2015, 08:53 PM   #21
Sabaneta
adept
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 974
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

it was <50% the last 3 years
Sabaneta is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-31-2015, 09:59 PM   #22
andr3w321
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Seattle
Posts: 1,136
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

http://killersports.com/nhl/query?sd...=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Data goes back to 2006 season. It's 773-713 for a 52% winrate. This is meaningless since they don't list avg odds laid to bet the under 5.5 total, but I suspect you are laying odds on average worse than -110 so I don't think 52% is going to be enough to win long term.

To search season by season...
http://killersports.com/nhl/query?sd...=++S+D+Q+L+!++

2015: 29-6
2014: 113-93
2013: 85-70
2012: 24-12
2011: 51-58
2010: 70-90
2009: 86-91
2008: 134-141
2007: 80-58
2006: 101-94

It has been quite profitable the last few years it looks like. I barely know the rules to hockey so I've no idea if there is some recent trend that would explain this. Maybe recent goal tenders are better than the good goal tenders back in the day or something that would result in the bad team scoring less vs really good goalies.
andr3w321 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-31-2015, 11:25 PM   #23
andr3w321
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Seattle
Posts: 1,136
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

Meh, I guess technically I missed a few with lines of exactly -200 by only doing < and > instead of <= and >=. Someone else can redo and post by year if they like. These went 41-32.
andr3w321 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-01-2016, 03:09 PM   #24
Sabaneta
adept
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 974
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

I only checked vs games with > -250 ml and 5.5 closing totals.

Obviously if the total closes at 5 under 5.5 is going to be well over 50%
Sabaneta is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-01-2016, 11:28 PM   #25
Roger Clemens
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 2,786
Re: 2015 NHL Profitable System

When was the current OT rule implemented?

Does o/u include OT?
Roger Clemens is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:31 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online