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2015 NHL Profitable System

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01-27-2016 , 07:46 PM

#76

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Could be some value in the salami under tonight with 3 of 4 faves > -200 if you can't get full on the individual totals.

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01-27-2016 , 08:28 PM

#77

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

Quote:

Originally Posted by westswindon

On Tampa u5.5 obv

Same good luck! It's been many in a row of winners how long can she go!! Insane run!

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01-27-2016 , 08:29 PM

#78

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

Does this still work if I move the line to > -200?

Don't know if you have that much heat, maybe..

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01-27-2016 , 09:15 PM

#79

LocksNChee$e

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 12

I took the under 5.5 in the tampa bay game too but after watching all 20minutes of that first it could have easily been 3-1.

Parlay: Tampa Bay Lightning ML + LA Kings ML (+108)

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01-27-2016 , 09:19 PM

#80

bingoplayernow

banned

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 24

So far so good, dropped a unit on each of the three games.

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01-27-2016 , 09:40 PM

#81

junky monkey

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 562

Dropped a lazy $1,000 on Tampa game.

I'm already counting my chickens.

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01-27-2016 , 10:15 PM

#82

Wh1teNorth

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 626

Quote:

Originally Posted by LocksNChee$e

I took the under 5.5 in the tampa bay game too but after watching all 20minutes of that first it could have easily been 3-1.

Parlay: Tampa Bay Lightning ML + LA Kings ML (+108)

I have the same parlay for 2u, hope we can ship. I was going to hammer Washington tonight for 5u and backed off, luckily for me.

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01-28-2016 , 01:24 AM

#83

LocksNChee$e

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 12

That last minute of play in Calgary almost gave me a heart attack. Just like this 2nd period in the Kings game.

Good thing I faded a lot of stats and went with "who's the hotter team" and "who wants to finish on a better note"

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02-06-2016 , 02:28 AM

#84

dfb89

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,293

ducks coyotes game qualified n lost fwiw. not sure of update record on year

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02-06-2016 , 11:57 AM

#85

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

Quote:

Originally Posted by LocksNChee$e

yes always sound strategies.

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02-06-2016 , 02:19 PM

#86

bjornb

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,937

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poogs

come ooooon dude

lol guys bookies arent genius's but they arent mentally challenged either. I refuse to believe this level 1 thinking is even close to good enough to solving nhl markets.

Sooo jelly.

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02-06-2016 , 02:34 PM

#87

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

I am. Ive spent so much time on nhl this year lol if this is just clicking along at like 20% roi all year im gonna be pissed.

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02-12-2016 , 03:34 PM

#88

Lavitz

grinder

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 595

Quote:

Originally Posted by dfb89

ducks coyotes game qualified n lost fwiw. not sure of update record on year

Yes, I saw this thread and that happened to be my first sweat bet.

0-1

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02-13-2016 , 11:54 AM

#89

dfb89

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,293

Sharks/Arizona

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02-15-2016 , 03:25 AM

#90

Suiii

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 15

Quote:

Originally Posted by dfb89

Sharks/Arizona

i've been following this thread since dec but started farming since january. when my nhl bankroll is at +1k, i will do 300 units. i believe its 37-5 ytd

01.21.2016 dal -110 +100
01.23.2016 bos -125 +100
01.23.2016 dal -110 +100

01.25.2016 dal -110 +200
01.27.2016 tbl -125 +200
-= all star =-
02.05.2016 ana -140 -280
02.13.2016 sjs -110 +200 overall +620

goodluck everyone.

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02-16-2016 , 09:32 AM

#91

BaconMe

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 30

Sample size is much too small to drawn any conclusions. Even when analyzing data over the past 10 seasons. I appreciate you starting this thread and posting your results nonetheless Ed. And more power to you. It would be cool if you were onto something! It is much more likely that you are just running well, however.

Last edited by BaconMe; 02-16-2016 at 09:41 AM.

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02-16-2016 , 10:09 AM

#92

DRE-DRE-SR

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 94

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaconMe

Just let the man be good...

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02-16-2016 , 04:14 PM

#93

andr3w321

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,148

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaconMe

Sample size is much too small to drawn any conclusions. Even when analyzing data over the past 10 seasons.

Why does no one seem to understand that statistical significance is dependent on sample size AND winrate?

A sample size of 35 is plenty to draw conclusions from if the winrate is high enough. A record of 31-4 is 6.6 std deviations above a mean of 52.4% and is plenty enough to draw conclusions from. http://sportsbettingcalcs.com/#ttest_calculator

Arguing that one season is a fluke is a perfectly valid argument, but to argue sample size = small therefore it can't be statistically significant is completely ignorant of how statistics works.

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02-16-2016 , 04:29 PM

#94

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by andr3w321

Because these NHL unders are usually being dealt at -110, right?

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02-16-2016 , 05:07 PM

#95

andr3w321

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,148

No of course not and I addressed that earlier in the thread. I'm refuting the argument that small sample size = can't draw any conclusions.

The main flaw with this system is it sounds like it has been found from looking at past ATS records looking for profitable system rather than come up with what you believe is profitable system and then backtest. The only way to draw conclusions is to test it going forward. It's like 4-1 at avg odds of -120 or something so far since thread was created. Someone else can look up the exact #s.

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02-16-2016 , 06:26 PM

#96

BaconMe

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 30

Quote:

Originally Posted by andr3w321

How is backtesting invalidated??

If goaltenders were truly significantly better today I'm pretty sure oddsmakers would take that into account. And if they are better this season, it would be most likely a fluke, not an overall trend that you can expect to continue for years and years. Some years pitching is just better in MLB for a wide variety of reasons. Others years it's not. These trends fluctuate like the tide.

Last edited by BaconMe; 02-16-2016 at 06:32 PM.

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02-16-2016 , 08:50 PM

#97

andr3w321

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,148

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaconMe

How is backtesting invalidated??

The spurs are 34-19 ATS this season. This is statistically significantly > 52%. Bet all the money on spurs going forward right? You see no flaw with this method of developing betting systems?

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02-16-2016 , 10:39 PM

#98

BaconMe

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 30

Quote:

Originally Posted by andr3w321

The spurs are 34-19 ATS this season. This is statistically significantly > 52%. Bet all the money on spurs going forward right? You see no flaw with this method of developing betting systems?

You said the only way to draw conclusions is to test it going forward. I'm saying you can use back history as data too, i.e. get as much (relevant) data as possible. The greater the sample size the better.

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02-21-2016 , 12:00 PM

#99

dfb89

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,293

Ducks at home to Flamers he mentioned is today 28-0 last 28

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02-21-2016 , 03:11 PM

#100

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

Hi all, just got back from traveling. I appreciate all the feedback and research everyone has done. Maybe I'm the lucky charm...I started playing this mid/late last season and have been doing super well. I believe system is 1-1 over last week or two.

Possible play on Ducks UNDER -195 now... However, both teams last 10 average total has been 6.9 and 7.0 I think but will still play anything -200 5.5 U

However, YESSSSSS

DUCKS HAVE NOT LOST A HOME GAME TO CALGARY SINCE 2003!!!!

Ducks on a win streak coming into the game vs Flames who been struggling. Puck line?

And yes 28-0 last 28 matches they've won at home vs Calgary.

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