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Old 02-25-2019, 01:50 PM   #1
Xavi09
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15% cash back on net losses

Hi Guys, I've found a sports bookie offering 15% cash back on net losses for the month,
just wondering if someone knows what is the best way to take advantage of this type of offer?

Thanks in advance
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Old 02-25-2019, 03:20 PM   #2
Joe Pulaski
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

lose a lot of money knowing you'll still have something left for beans and rice at the end of the month?
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:08 AM   #3
Bravepitt
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

giving that short term you very likely to learn by losing...just take it lol
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:13 AM   #4
MrAdvantage
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Easier just to give blow jobs to 50 year old divorced men.
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Old 02-26-2019, 03:18 AM   #5
extract
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Best bet would be to back low odd favorites.
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Old 02-26-2019, 10:09 AM   #6
akkopower1
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Take break even middle bets, 50% chance you get 15% of you losses back. No longer break even
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Old 02-26-2019, 10:15 AM   #7
akkopower1
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

you could also say place $500 on a 3/4 way multi, you need to place the multi with your 15% guy.

Say

texans +3.5 (-110)
colts +6.5 (-110)
saints win (-150)

then $500 on whoever is playing the texans to win (texans win, you lose a little, texans lose by 1/2/3 you win alot, Texans lose and you get a refund of 15%


In the case the texans +3.5 pays, then you bet $1000 on say -4.5 for whoever plays the colts. Youll rarely win the multi, but refunded quite frequent;ly
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Old 02-26-2019, 09:40 PM   #8
Xavi09
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Quote:
Originally Posted by akkopower1 View Post
you could also say place $500 on a 3/4 way multi, you need to place the multi with your 15% guy.

Say

texans +3.5 (-110)
colts +6.5 (-110)
saints win (-150)

then $500 on whoever is playing the texans to win (texans win, you lose a little, texans lose by 1/2/3 you win alot, Texans lose and you get a refund of 15%


In the case the texans +3.5 pays, then you bet $1000 on say -4.5 for whoever plays the colts. Youll rarely win the multi, but refunded quite frequent;ly
Thanks akkopower1

I have been doing exactly this but with football bets, im finding on each leg i lay is costing around 3%,


I spent today looking for middles and came across a few Euro basketball ones, but im worried if i touch them they'll limit me quickly,
i would take break even middles on NBA and NCAA its just finding them seems difficult with this bookie.
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Old 02-27-2019, 10:05 PM   #9
akkopower1
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xavi09 View Post
Thanks akkopower1

I have been doing exactly this but with football bets, im finding on each leg i lay is costing around 3%,


I spent today looking for middles and came across a few Euro basketball ones, but im worried if i touch them they'll limit me quickly,
i would take break even middles on NBA and NCAA its just finding them seems difficult with this bookie.

You should look into a sportmarket account, they dont limit
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Old 02-28-2019, 09:19 AM   #10
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Quote:
Originally Posted by akkopower1 View Post
you could also say place $500 on a 3/4 way multi, you need to place the multi with your 15% guy.

Say

texans +3.5 (-110)
colts +6.5 (-110)
saints win (-150)

then $500 on whoever is playing the texans to win (texans win, you lose a little, texans lose by 1/2/3 you win alot, Texans lose and you get a refund of 15%


In the case the texans +3.5 pays, then you bet $1000 on say -4.5 for whoever plays the colts. Youll rarely win the multi, but refunded quite frequent;ly

DO NOT do this or anything like this. I know it seems like it should work and I very embarrassingly did something similar and lost money a long time ago.

Youre getting 15% back on net losses for the whole month, not on each bet. Its a huge difference. Youre getting a good deal but its not really as good as it seems. There are guys out there who will give you up to 20% off of net losses every week! Thats ridiculous. The smaller the time span the better.

You need to still be making good bets to make money, or at the very least lots of break even ones. Forget about betting both sides and stuff like that. Really think about the deal youre getting and how it works.
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Old 03-01-2019, 05:04 AM   #11
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Step 1 find a game where there is a substantial fav/dog and you can get close to arb price vs Pinny or some high limit book like cris or an exchange that's liquid on the match in question

Step 2 MAX BET

Step 3 arb off with random pinny/exchange/whatever

Profit?

You're best off making as few bets as possible but as large bets as possible on the book so ideally on a major market w high limits

Hypothetically let's say we find a +500/-500 spot on a major market (all you need is one a month, right? Surely there's NBA lineup time news one day or whatever)

Just wait for them to be slow on steam somewhere if you can't handicap or find a spot you think closes shorter on a major market

Then we...

Fire 5k on Pinny/sharpbook/exchange on +500 side
Fire 25k on 15%book on -500 side

(or whatever max bet is on 15%book and adjust other book number accordingly)

Step 3 collect 15% of 25k (so this will work even if you're slightly under arb price although obviously being patient for the right spot is key as you want a big fav on 15% book at close to or ideally above arb price)

If 15% book side wins, rinse repeat with larger and larger numbers until 15%book side loses and you claim your 15% of whatever the big number is.

Note this only works if 15% book takes real action on major sports of course if the max bet is 500 bucks not so much and also requires there to occasionally be a spot that is close to arb price vs any book that has liquidity that you can access to bet the other side
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Old 03-01-2019, 09:00 AM   #12
akkopower1
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Step 1 find a game where there is a substantial fav/dog and you can get close to arb price vs Pinny or some high limit book like cris or an exchange that's liquid on the match in question

Step 2 MAX BET

Step 3 arb off with random pinny/exchange/whatever

Profit?

You're best off making as few bets as possible but as large bets as possible on the book so ideally on a major market w high limits

Hypothetically let's say we find a +500/-500 spot on a major market (all you need is one a month, right? Surely there's NBA lineup time news one day or whatever)

Just wait for them to be slow on steam somewhere if you can't handicap or find a spot you think closes shorter on a major market

Then we...

Fire 5k on Pinny/sharpbook/exchange on +500 side
Fire 25k on 15%book on -500 side

(or whatever max bet is on 15%book and adjust other book number accordingly)

Step 3 collect 15% of 25k (so this will work even if you're slightly under arb price although obviously being patient for the right spot is key as you want a big fav on 15% book at close to or ideally above arb price)

If 15% book side wins, rinse repeat with larger and larger numbers until 15%book side loses and you claim your 15% of whatever the big number is.

Note this only works if 15% book takes real action on major sports of course if the max bet is 500 bucks not so much and also requires there to occasionally be a spot that is close to arb price vs any book that has liquidity that you can access to bet the other side
Yeah, do that!!!!!!
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Old 03-04-2019, 10:44 AM   #13
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Am I the only one here who actually does any of this stuff in real life??

these are all great ways to lose money. 15% off of net losses every month is not the same as 15% back on every bet
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Old 03-04-2019, 10:47 AM   #14
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Also lets get 30k down on a 0 arb. Because thats something thats easy to do over and over again and certainly wouldnt cause you any problems
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Old 03-04-2019, 11:28 AM   #15
SwoopAE
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

You'd be surprised how much you can get down at certain locals in certain jurisdictions. Getting 25k down to win 5k is vastly different to getting 25k down to win 25k. Obviously to win 25k is a lot tougher than to win 5k, but i'd wager it's less hard than you think to get 5k down on a major sport in most places

Obviously you'd need to know that this book's actually going to pay you if you fire a single 25k bet and lose, but in a well regulated jurisdiction it'd be possible. No idea what region OP is referring to or where he lives.

Right now a random square local of mine has 6k AUD limits on Pakistani cricket which is like 4xxx usd (did it twice tonight), getting down on an actual mainstream sport to win 5k on a non Pinny/Cris book isn't that tough IF you have the right outs and know that the book actually pays you. Obviously if the book won't honour the payout if you whack 25k to win 5k on a single bet for the month then disregard obviously. A ton of Asian books are easy to get down on, my locals here are but are region locked in that they can't take overseas customers, I know of a few other countries where I have friends who can get down on random locals too.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 03-04-2019 at 11:53 AM.
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Old 03-04-2019, 08:54 PM   #16
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Ive been banging on locals for almost a decade now. I know you can get a good amount down. Thats really besides the point though...the point is that you and everyone else are not seeing the huge difference between getting 15% back of net losses every month vs every bet. The advice youre giving him will cost him money. Assuming you can get 30k down on a 0 arb, assuming you can find these arbs in markets where you can get 30 k down, assuming youll get paid, assuming you dont get banned the second the book sees you chasing steam for 25k, assuming you hit the market perfectly, you still lose money doing this. Or at the very least, you move tons of money around and break even.
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Old 03-05-2019, 03:40 AM   #17
SwoopAE
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

His question was just how do I best exploit the promo; obviously he has to do his own research as to whether the book will pay him/terms and conditions and so on. I told him you'd need to be able to get paid and not get auto restricted placing one wager a month for it to work but where is the math wrong assuming we can get a 0 arb price (not unreasonable to find one on say NBA or NFL or MLB or whatever across a whole month) and assuming we can bet 25k to win 5k, then take 5k to win 25k on a sharp book with high limits, then rinse/repeat at higher numbers until we hit the market max or the rebate book side loses and we can collect our rebate. Obviously it works at lower numbers too, you just make less money on the rebate if you do 5k to win 1k and 1k to win 5k or whatever.

Obviously my advice is completely worthless if any individual factor fails, whether that be the book refuses to pay out, the book doesn't pay the 15% rebate if you only make one bet a month or a handful of bets, the book immediately restricts you, you can't find prices that are close to arb vs a liquid sharp book, etc. obviously a ton of stuff can mess up the plan, but it works in theory if the book is reputable, there are no T+C issues to screw you and the book pays you.
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Old 03-05-2019, 05:51 PM   #18
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Swoop...youre missing my point. Again, even if what youre saying is all true, youll still break even/make a little bit. The 15% rebate is on losses at the end of every month, not on every bet. Its a huge difference. True, if you whack 0 arbs for 30k a pop, your profit would just be the rebate every month. But it really wouldnt be worth the risk.

Time frames on rebates are huge. You want them to be as small as possible. If you got 15% back on every single bet you would have to try to lose money. But 15% back every month is not nearly as good.
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Old 03-06-2019, 09:24 PM   #19
akkopower1
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
Swoop...youre missing my point. Again, even if what youre saying is all true, youll still break even/make a little bit. The 15% rebate is on losses at the end of every month, not on every bet. Its a huge difference. True, if you whack 0 arbs for 30k a pop, your profit would just be the rebate every month. But it really wouldnt be worth the risk.

Time frames on rebates are huge. You want them to be as small as possible. If you got 15% back on every single bet you would have to try to lose money. But 15% back every month is not nearly as good.

The goal is to lose at the 15% book whilst making the same profit elsewhere.

you start with 10k, bet all of it at the 15% book on a $1.20 fav (could take any bet, doesnt have to be a fav), then hedge at near break even price. (you could even take the +6.5 and hedge like a middle)

if the 15%book bet wins, then you continue betting 100% of your balance on shortish bets.

if you place 15x$1.20 bets in a month, you will win them all 6.5%.

94% of the time you make 15% of 10k. In the times you do get 15 right in a row you the 15% book would need to be accepting $155k bets and you would have lose like 144k with your last bet being $25k at $6........



you could just limit yourself to 5 bets at $1.20, you lose the original 10k, 60% and get back $900 per month on average, risking a total draw down of $15k at the hedge requiring a bet of $4150 at $6. Thats not too bad, you require $20k in capital to average $10,800 per year, risks arent huge either..... just finding the time to artrange it all

Last edited by akkopower1; 03-06-2019 at 09:32 PM.
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Old 03-06-2019, 09:50 PM   #20
akkopower1
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

does look like a little optimization problem

choose the number of $1.20 bets to make such that the ratio of you exp return to max draw down is maximised.

exp return for $1.2 bet at the 15% book over n bets is 1500*(1-(1/1.2)^n)

max draw down hedging at $6 is 2000*(1-1.2^n)/(1-1.2)+5000.

max of 3.75% occurs when n=4.

not bad for a return of 3.75% compounding monthly only taking 4x$1.2 bets per month at the 15% refund.

Last edited by akkopower1; 03-06-2019 at 09:58 PM.
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Old 03-07-2019, 11:54 AM   #21
rainmaker1855
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Re: 15% cash back on net losses

OP - I'm curious, is there a bet limit (amount, frequency etc) with this promotion? Also is there a time delay or trigger delay on when you get the 15% rebate?
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