Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
Swoop...youre missing my point. Again, even if what youre saying is all true, youll still break even/make a little bit. The 15% rebate is on losses at the end of every month, not on every bet. Its a huge difference. True, if you whack 0 arbs for 30k a pop, your profit would just be the rebate every month. But it really wouldnt be worth the risk.
Time frames on rebates are huge. You want them to be as small as possible. If you got 15% back on every single bet you would have to try to lose money. But 15% back every month is not nearly as good.
The goal is to lose at the 15% book whilst making the same profit elsewhere.
you start with 10k, bet all of it at the 15% book on a $1.20 fav (could take any bet, doesnt have to be a fav), then hedge at near break even price. (you could even take the +6.5 and hedge like a middle)
if the 15%book bet wins, then you continue betting 100% of your balance on shortish bets.
if you place 15x$1.20 bets in a month, you will win them all 6.5%.
94% of the time you make 15% of 10k. In the times you do get 15 right in a row you the 15% book would need to be accepting $155k bets and you would have lose like 144k with your last bet being $25k at $6........
you could just limit yourself to 5 bets at $1.20, you lose the original 10k, 60% and get back $900 per month on average, risking a total draw down of $15k at the hedge requiring a bet of $4150 at $6. Thats not too bad, you require $20k in capital to average $10,800 per year, risks arent huge either..... just finding the time to artrange it all
Last edited by akkopower1; 03-06-2019 at 09:32 PM.