Hi

I am not a mathematician but i do like math. Like everybody else on this sub-forum i guess.

Anyway here are my questions. Please point me in the right direction.

Say you bet ov 154.5 -110 and und 155.5 -115 = Not profitable right? or near break even?

ov 154.5 -110 and und 155.5 -120 = This can not be profitable right?

Now here is the interesting part:
What if i get some nice and clean 2, 2.5 and 3 point middles

will ov 154.5 -110 and und 157.5 -120 be profitable = Answer gotta be absolutely yes, right?

Where do i draw the line?

2 points 2.5 points or even just 1.5 points will be profitable one side at -110 and the other at -120?

Thanks in advance math geniuses

glgl

Your question is dependent on the value of each point of line shift. Are you talking about NCAAB totals? Not too difficult to determine the incremental value of each .5 point change in the line on win %.

But beyond that, how about betting only if the individual bet is profitable. If you can get ov 154.5 -110 and under 157.5 -120 and the consensus line is 157, don't go for the middle, just bet the over 154.5.

Suppose you bet $110 on over 154.5 -110 and $110 on under 157.5 -110.

Here are your scenarios:
x% of the time the game goes under 154.5 and you lose $10
y% of the time the game goes over 157.5 and you lose $10
1-x-y % of the time you hit the middle and win $200
or in other words:
p% of the time you hit the middle and win $200
1-p % of the time you lose $10

What percentage of the time do you have to hit the middle to be profitable?
Well your EV is 200*p - 10(1-p) = 210p - 10

So your middle percentage p must be at least 1/21 = ~4.8% to break even.

Now, because we did the same amount on both sides everything canceled out nicely.

If we switch to a -120 on the under 157.5 then to make everything cancel perfectly we bet $110 to win $100 on the over 154.5 and $114.55 to win 95.45 on the under 157.5 (you can use some algebra to calculate that the average of -120 and -110 is -114.55 to get the 14.55 number, or just use a no vig calculator to average the two).

p% of the time you hit the middle and win $195.45
1-p % of the time you don't hit the middle and you lose $14.55

Your EV is -14.55(1-p) + 195.45*p = 210p - 14.55

So you need to hit the middle at least 14.55/210 = ~6.93% of the time to be profitable.

In general it's going to be (juice)/210 = % of the time you need to hit the middle to be profitable.

I think I did the math right here.

Keeping it simple. With a -110 middle, you invest 220 for the following outcomes:
A-210 (win one, lose the other);
B-320 (win one, tie the other);
C-420 (win both).

If Pr(A)*A + pr(B)*B + pr(C)*C > 220, you have a +EV proposition.

The above numbers can be altered for different odds.

Thank very much for the replies guys

glgl