This is a hand i played at 50nl - i posted it on the microstakes forum and got universally criticised. I wanted to post it on here as well to see whether, if i took this line in 100nl/200nl game, would this bluff work, or is it spew at higher stakes as well?
One thing i fully accept before anyone says it - my turn betsizing was bad, and should have been more like $14. This aside, is the idea of the hand good?



Dealt to Hero (UTG+1) A8

1 fold
Hero ($57.95) raises to $1.50
CO ($63.52) calls $1.50
3 folds

Flop ($3.75)

Q44

Hero bets $2.50
CO raises to $5
Hero raises to $11
CO calls $6

Turn ($25.75)

5

Hero bets $17
CO calls $17

River ($59.75)

9

Hero bets $28.45 AI

Villain is 26/18, AF 3, 3bet 3%, fold to cbet 68%, raise cbet 16%

On this flop i cbet to take it down, as he mostly has nothing, planning to barrel if he flats once.
When he raises i think he can do this with a lot, as he never thinks i have anything. I refuse to believe he has any 4 here except quads. He could have a Q.
I reraise the flop because i think it folds out all his marginal 1010/99 type hands, and some Qx as well. If he shoves i fold, but by reraising i get back the initiative. I reraise small to give me room to bet fairly big on most turns and rivers.

On the turn blank i have to carry on if i want to win the pot - otherwise it;s a c/f. I want my bet to look strong but still for value, and like i'm setting up the easy river shove. When he flats, i definitely don't think he has a 4. I'm almost certain he has a Q, and maybe a stubborn JJ.

On the river blank i carry through my story - there's no point betting the turn if i don't shove the river. I think he should fold every Q here as my line looks so strong. I realise the only problem is my turn bet was slightly too big, meaning my river bet is a little too small and he's getting good odds to call. But i still think he should fold enough to make it worthwhile.

Thoughts?

sorry, but you'll get universal criticized here as well. It's really spewy on this board. Pre is an easy fold with A8o. Flop reraise could be fine if you had a read that he bluffs dry boards and gives up easily but you don't (furthermore there's not a single hand you should ever 3bet this flop with as hero). Turn/river barrel is just terrible vs. a range that raise/called a Q44r board... I mean, what do you think he has? If he takes this line with a queen he's not folding it, and say you're trying to get him off TT/99 but that's not at all an accurate flop raising range for him.

really what you probably need to work on most is developing a better thought process for why you're making your decisions since a lot of your statements are way off (for example, you don't think he has a 4 when he just calls turn, yet calling turn is 100% the correct play with a 4; also your assessment of his flop raising range being so far off, and on the turn saying you think he might have a hand like JJ that is probably the least possible hand in his range).

geez this really is so bad man the more I look. This guy is folding to 68% of cbets overall. Do you know how incredibly high that is? There's no reason to rebluff a guy who plays so fit or fold because his range that doesn't fold is really strong.

also he plays 26/18 which means he flat calls a ton so he'll have a lot of 4x hands like A4 and 54 and 64. Plus he only 3bets 3% and these guys trap with AA/KK fairly often. The rest of his flop raising range is AQ/KQ which miiiight make a bad river fold, so congrats if you did get him to fold that but it's not at all likely. Basically he gets to the river with almost 0 hands that fold.

I entirely accept what you're saying, and i can see what you mean about his ranges (though i do think he's very likely to 3bet AA/KK, so i discount those somewhat from his range).
My two thoughts during this hand were:
1. I rep very little, but the hands I do rep crush his range, and my line looks so value-oriented that I’m likely to have the narrow range I’m repping.

2. Given that we are a little deep here, is he really going to want to call off his entire stack with AQ/KQ?

I’m happy to admit though that sometimes I think I can get ppl to fold TP through pure aggression, and it doesn’t always work.

dont think stacks are deep enough to make this work.

"I wanted to post it on here as well to see whether, if i took this line in 100nl/200nl game, would this bluff work"

lol its not like the higher you move people just become nits and fold to your 3 barrel bluffs.

"move up to where they respect your 3 barrel bluffs" does not really apply.

Agree with everything Keyser said.

The reasons you gave for 3betting the flop don't make sense. He shouldn't be raising TT/99 here, he should be just calling them, they are good bluff catchers, theres no reason for him to raise them.
If he is raising Qx here then he is trying to induce some sort of spazz from you so isn't planning to fold at any point.
The only thing id be trying to fold out with a flop 3bet would be air, and a guy with 68% fold to cbet is completely fit/fold.

if the guy 3bets only 3% he could have some overpairs here and 68% fold cbet is absurdly high so id assume sample size to be very small. I know some villains against which this might be a line worth trying out but here just fold flop.

Fold pre

interested to know what exact hands you think you rep with this line OP

preflop can be ok. under most conditions it is not though...

flopbet is fine. 3bet is somewhat bad agains a fitorfold player like that. turn/riverplay is just awful spew.

given your narrow valuerange you don't need to be bluffing very often. Thats why thinking players call. non thinking players call because they have top pair and they don't care about your range^^

so bad