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A strange bluff mit Q2 ... A strange bluff mit Q2 ...

04-22-2008 , 05:57 AM
Hey ho,

this is going to be my first longer post at this forum. I'm very interested in how you guys are discussing and how small I'll be after you have seen the hand and after you'll have hit me. :P
Well, the following hand is a pure bluff and it seems extremely fishy played. Of course, I would rate this hand in the same way, when I would not consider it a hand played depending on image, history and expectation of my opponent's play.
Firstly, I want to present the latter information to you:
- villain is very aggressive but he is not fishy loose. He is no common fish but a LAAG. When he raises, he fires a first and second barrel on flop and turn almost 90% or so.
- he seems to be reasonable: he knows about my play and he was never at showdown with a mediocre hand but rather with really strong hands. In order to play this laag-style +EV, he must play that way. And in order to play that style, he must know about the opponent's plays.
- he has outplayed me a lot of times pre- and postflop. He knows that I am folding many of my hands to a first or then second barrel.

In this spot I decided to outplay him. I have positional advantage and am heads-up. Unfortunately, I have no hand. But as my hand should be a pure bluff - the hand doesn't really matter, does it?

Ok and here the hand:

Titan No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50/$1.00 (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

Button ($156.06)
SB ($144.55)
BB ($100.00) (Hero)
MP2 ($97.80)
MP3 ($106.35)
CO ($51.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, Q
4 folds, SB raises to 3.5, Hero calls $3.00,

Flop: 7, 8, J ( $8 )
SB bets $7.00, Hero calls $7.00,

Turn: 4 ( $22 )
SB bets $17.50, Hero raises to 35.0, SB delay calls $17.50,

River: 6 ( $92 )
SB checks, Hero bets $54.00, 1 folds,

Final Pot: $143.00

Ok. The preflop/flop calls seems to be huge -EV, but this is going to be a bluff either in the form of a turn raise or a consequently carried on bluff in form of a river push.
I knew here that villain will raise preflop really many hands, almost all, I guess. The flop raise is standard as well and - he is really very aggressive - villain will tend to fire a 2nd barrel on turn most of the time, too.
And here is my first reaction. I have always folded to all of his barrels - he is conscious about that. Now I do a minraise. This seems fishy but could be understand as a valuemove against him.
Interesting is now that villain considers a long time. He is really likely to have a weak hand here now because in the past he betted/raised/folded very fast and now he is likely to be involved into this hand in that kind that he would prefer the action of the spot to some other table spots - this guy was really interested in playing against me, I guess. I think, a valuemove or something would have be done really fast.
But now villain calls after a long consideration and at the river he considers shortly and checks.
I think, his play was his standard play almost my turn raise. So, the main part of his range would not hit this board really strong. He is unlikely to go to showdown without a really strong hand for all his stack. His call on river could be because of the really good odds.
And because I'm pretty sure that a) most of his range has not hit this board really strongly b) he would not go to showdown with not a really strong hand and because c) my line indicates a really strong hand and d) his delay call on turn and his check on river appears to me to be rather weak than strong most of time... because of that, I decide to shove all-in on river.

Ok, that's the hand. And some facts are known to me here:
a) one should not use a trash hand to play some strang bluff lines to win a pot against a loose-aggressive player but should rather wait for a hand like top-pair to stack him.
b) this spot is really bad selected to bluff this player
c) the reads are not the best and the river bluff must work a large number of times in order to make the complete hand +EV

I wanted to move villain, no matter why. I was not on tilt, though. I wanted to try that multistreet float and I thought that the pocket hand does not matter then, anyway (of course, this play should be a semi-bluff with a drawing hand or something rather than a pure bluff).
Apart from this, I find that I have played the hand consequently and evaluated the given reads in a very drastic but also logical way.

So, now you can comment on this hand.

Greetz, Eisflamme

Last edited by Eisflamme; 04-22-2008 at 06:05 AM.
04-22-2008 , 06:22 AM
So,

first of all, your opponent is not fishy but bets the Flop AND the Turn 90% of the time? I would suggest your opponent IS fishy, or at least does not play very plus EV.
Second, I don`t think there is any situation in these stakes, where you can profitable call preflop without any cards just in order to bluff the whole hand.
third: You have a hand, unfortunately. Every now and then you will flop TP and then ? Either you will stack off with a silly Q2 TP hand quite often, or you will have to make some good folds. As your opponent is a Lag, his play depends on being very aggressiv, so if you don`t wanna stack off with Q2 TP, you will have to fold the best hand sometimes ! And that`s although your only aim was to bluff.
I don`t think there is any way for you to play this hand profitable, so preflop it`s a clear fold imo, regardless of your plan for the hand.

I think the Flopcall is a huge mistake, too. You can float a flop, of course, but this would be good if the Flop is 278 and your villain is a TAG. He check/folds AT and AJ on the Turn so often, that it might be good to float. But here you are playing against a LAG and as he raises quite loose, the flop hit`s a ton of his range.
I think the Turn is a perfect spot to give up. And if not, the minraise is the most fishy play I can guess of. There are too flushdraws, straightdraws, a lot of **** and you give him odds for just everything. He might even push with a hand that draws, which you actually beat right now.

For a two street bluff your Riverbet is too small. If he was thinking about folding a pair, he won`t do that for nearly 3:1 on the River now.
As he was thinking for a while on the Turn, I think he has either a weak pair, like QJo, maybe A8, or a monster like T9. Sometimes a flushdraw, but this seems so unlikely.

So if I see a play like this at limits from 100NL to 400NL I will always mark that player as a fish. Just because he plays hands which cannot be played profitable. He makes silly minraises, doesn`t know any odds and doesn`t know when to stop a bluff.

I would give you the advice to play somewhat more ABC Poker, standardlines.

Anyway, jmtc
04-22-2008 , 06:34 AM
Hi,

ok, this criticque is reasonable ^^ but if you mark me as a fish, I will be happy about that. :P
I think, he has most of the time something like top pair or worse. And I think, he can fold this on river for 3 : 1 because odds is the one thing but my line is very strong here and a laggish player could fold this river with only top pair or - mostly - worse anyway. So, that point is not really the best. The further points concerning the preflop and flop play are quite logical, although I think, villain has often hit the board on the hand, but he can play like this with A,K,Q -high or any pocket, too. I think, he has hit relatively often but he has not hit most of the times! That is because he will play flop + turn most of his hands like this in opposition to a normal tag/lag who will just play like this when he has any hand.
Furthermore, villain need not be fishy. The table was rather tight and, so, he could play this style really +EV as most opponents would fold to his strong actions. I'm sure, everyone here knows these nitty tags which will fold to any stronger action when they do not have a really strong hand - so it was here.
04-22-2008 , 08:24 AM
Q2o ist nicht gut.
04-22-2008 , 12:09 PM
axioma: Yes. But depending on the book of your favour, the own hand is just one part of the full situation. As it was a pure bluff and was never thought to be brought to showdown, the hand does not matter here.
04-22-2008 , 12:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eisflamme
axioma: Yes. But depending on the book of your favour, the own hand is just one part of the full situation. As it was a pure bluff and was never thought to be brought to showdown, the hand does not matter here.
Nein. Q2 ist sehr schelcht.
04-22-2008 , 12:22 PM
He will never fold the River with any kind of made hand. I don`t fold the River with any kind of made hand and I fold a lot.

      
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