villain is 23/16/3.5 29% wtsd no real history, 61% cbet 57% 2barrel over 400 hands

my image is somewhat laggy but nothing that crazy, i'm coldcalling lots pf and floating/bluffing some but nothing crazy, some one street bluffs

notes:

raises CO, c/c c/c 3dQhTd2s6c, check river w ATo [i had a bluff]

pbb won't give my 3bets much respect bc he saw me 3bet 87o - this was ~ 45 mins earlier, he made a remark about it in chat

srry for no converter

NL200 EVP, 670$ eff

Villain openraises CO to 7$
I call OTB with KT
some random whatever calls in the blinds
BB folds

Flop (23$) is T9Q

BB checks.
CO bets 19$
Hero calls 19$

Turn (61$) is 4

CO bets 45$
Hero raises to 164$
CO calls 119$

River (389$) is 2

CO checks
Hero shoves (480$)

yuck, really dislike this since you aren't repping much, but if he isn't that good it probably doesn't matter since its 300bbs OMG

i think he just shoves the turn with any hand thats calling your riv shove unless hes some crazy station

I think this is just a subjective EV calculation.

I.e. If you think he'll call a push 10% of the time = $48
If you think he'll call $200 60% of the time = $120

If thats even close to his call %, then betting about 1/2 seems best.

I'd rather just call since he could be double barreling you w/ worse hands (draws/combo draws) and if he isn't we have a gutter/maybe T as outs.
I dunno, the bluff seems crazy to me.

I mean ur not repping much cuz you would raised it on flop 444 is lol, but at the same time he is drawing a ton on this board, but like Heine said you shouldn't need to bet so much. save some $$$ imo

and u might even have the best hand

IDK, trying to bluff a frustrated stationy TAG when there were 100 000 draws that bricked on the river seems like a pretty bad idea, esp when you have a shred of showdown value.

But as said, having the cojones to bluff 300bb deep gets you a ton of FE in spots where you really shouldn't have any, so it's not as bad as I make it out to be.

If I shove he has to fold 55% of the time.
If I pot 50%
If I bet 300$ he has to fold 43% of the time.

And I think shove gives me more FE tbh, vs one pair + draw or smth like that

Oh yeah, shove is sweet here if you wanna bluff

I like shoving in a vacuum but I think based on reads of villain from this session I think check behind may be best.

I am really not sure what you're repping here? KJcc?

i dont necessarily have to rep much to make this +ev

i figured he has to fold a huuuge portion of his range on the turn to make that > calling, and i thought a river shove was profitable even though i don't exactly rep much

+ it's not like he is repping a strong hand

you can also have insanely high winrates without trying this stuff vs bad players at lower limits who are easier exploitable

I dunno, man. This really looks like you're just spazzing out with backdoor spades or something and the only reason it would work is just b/c you're so deep and he's giving you the green light when he flats the turn. This is not a convincing line.

Please don't pull the trigger. You folded out overpairs and aq on the turn, all he has on the river is either a wiffed draw or a monster. A check here probably has value since against the missed part of hsi range you have show down value.

He might snap call with JT!

I think he calls with sets and QT and folds most everything else. He never has a straight here obv. I mean you really don't rep anything and you know that. But it's a huge bet so he'll still be scared. meh not sure what I think yet

Just give up on turn.

start by raising flop if you want to get fancy.

Since its so deep i think this is very good. he has to fold ALOOOOT of his range here. + i think its good to wait for turn to raise, cuz if you raise flop, pot would be bigger and he'll be more inclined to call... nh

What?

First of all, I think overpairs and AQ/KQ/JQ are exactly what he has quite often. He didn't want to play for stacks on the turn but didn't want to fold either. He doesn't have a monster (set/straight/2pair), he would shove the turn because the board is so dangerous. He doesn't have a missed draw because if he's any good at all calling the turn raise oop with a draw is just beyond horrible.

ehm this is not true. you can create exact same situation on river after c/raising flop and you represent something much stronger imo

i somewhat agree with this but

1) some players play twopair like this because they don't want to 3bet turn/get 350bb in
2) it's possible for him to call some sort of combodraw on the turn

given your turn play i like the river very much
when he just calls the turn on this board i dont see him having a set, KJ, or a good two pair, but mainly draws and maybe some weak made hands

i'm not sure if i like turning you hand, which might very well be good at this point given villians stats, into a bluff on the turn. What was your plan if he shoves over you by the way?

What was your plan if he shoves over you by the way?

cry/easy fold

Given how you got there he should be folding alot. I'm ok with this play in a vacuum for sure. However, your image could convince him to call with an overpair/two pair given the drawy nature of this board.

ok, so what better hands did you expect to fold out on the turn then?