i dont think that lucky is spewey enough to be raising this river with air since he knows he reps very little. he isnt c/calling the flop with total air very often (if at all) when ur utg raiser and he's bb, and on the river he has no reason to turn any of the hands he c/called with on the flop into a bluff since like you said your range looks weak and you can easily have air here so he would prob just call with all his showdown value hands.
with all this being said, i dont think that he has to raise flop with a set 100%, and if he was deciding to c/c flop with a set and mayb c/r turn or something, then i would expect him to be checking that Q on the river to you as well once he misses the turn c/r since your gonna be vb a bunch of the hands that you are calling with anyways + bluffing the Q some of the time. soooo yeah i fold
Last edited by bandin; 03-01-2010 at 05:18 PM.
Reason: preparing to look like a fool when luckychance proves me wrong :p