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Old 05-09-2017, 07:10 AM   #1
YARR123
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NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 18)
SB: 100.26 BB (VPIP: 24.17, PFR: 18.33, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 121)
BB: 155.52 BB (VPIP: 24.62, PFR: 13.85, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 68)
UTG: 470.66 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 22)
Hero (MP): 205.96 BB
CO: 104.74 BB (VPIP: 19.48, PFR: 10.39, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 78)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, BB raises to 14 BB, Hero calls 11.5 BB, fold

Flop: (30.5 BB, 2 players) 5 9 6
BB bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

Turn: (50.5 BB, 2 players) 2
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (50.5 BB, 2 players) 6
BB bets 24 BB, Hero calls 24 BB

From a balance perspective this river is a call, as I have to defend pretty wide on the flop, and a lot of pairs on the turn want to bet for protection. Then again, villain seems quite fishy and passive, idk how often they'd take this line as a bluff.

What do you guys think about betting this turn (fairly small) with all our range?I think this accomplishes a few things: 1) We have some hands like 88-JJ (maybe even QQ) that want to protect. 2) We get villain to fold his equity very often. 3) we prevent villain from bluffing river. 4) We disguise our range. The way I've played it is pretty easy to play against as my range on the river is very weak.

Another way would be to never bet the turn I guess? But that would create some other problems.
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Old 05-09-2017, 07:39 AM   #2
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

Ran this hand through PIO and it has OOP checking 96% which makes sense on this board/deepness. As played I would assume a relative amount of showdown here and check turn and fold river.
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Old 05-09-2017, 08:35 AM   #3
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

Hero isn't oop though. With villain cbetting small and then checking the turn, I think the turn is a good spot for us to bet.
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Old 05-09-2017, 09:08 AM   #4
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

I would just 4b/gii pre against a non-nit 155bb deep. BB should be more inclined to squeeze here with the SB's dead money in the middle. And if he ever 5-bet jams as a bluff, we're in pretty decent shape
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Old 05-09-2017, 09:27 AM   #5
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

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Originally Posted by Oregon Rick View Post
Hero isn't oop though. With villain cbetting small and then checking the turn, I think the turn is a good spot for us to bet.
With what range though?

Quote:
I would just 4b/gii pre against a non-nit 155bb deep. BB should be more inclined to squeeze here with the SB's dead money in the middle. And if he ever 5-bet jams as a bluff, we're in pretty decent shape
Personally I don't like this idea vs. a player who looks like a kind of fishy reg. Idk, I'd be very surprised if this player showed a 5b bluff here.
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Old 05-09-2017, 12:56 PM   #6
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

[QUOTE=YARR123;52185872]With what range though?

I can't think of anything that I wouldn't be betting the turn with.
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Old 05-09-2017, 03:01 PM   #7
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

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I can't think of anything that I wouldn't be betting the turn with.
For which reasons?
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Old 05-09-2017, 08:51 PM   #8
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

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For which reasons?
I feel like villain didn't like that flop based on his weak continuation bet. On the turn, villains check made me feel like he was giving up. Based on that, I feel like I should be betting my entire range here(made hands, bluffs, draws,etc...). I feel like we would be getting villain to fold so often here, that betting all our hands would be profitable.
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Old 05-10-2017, 04:53 PM   #9
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

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Originally Posted by Oregon Rick View Post
I feel like villain didn't like that flop based on his weak continuation bet. On the turn, villains check made me feel like he was giving up. Based on that, I feel like I should be betting my entire range here(made hands, bluffs, draws,etc...). I feel like we would be getting villain to fold so often here, that betting all our hands would be profitable.
Not a good way to look at it imo.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:38 PM   #10
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

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Originally Posted by Maverick93 View Post
Not a good way to look at it imo.
How would you look at it and play the hand?
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Old 05-10-2017, 09:51 PM   #11
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

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Originally Posted by Maverick93 View Post
Not a good way to look at it imo.
Yeah, we don't use the words "feel" or "feeling" to justify our actions in poker. And there are some flaws in the reasoning, but you're on the right track

Anyway, this guy is a fish for 1/3 potting flop and checking turn

Last edited by Minatorr; 05-10-2017 at 10:08 PM.
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Old 05-10-2017, 11:19 PM   #12
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

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Originally Posted by Oregon Rick View Post
How would you look at it and play the hand?
Basically what Minatorr wrote. "Gut feeling" and "instinct" do not provide a quantitative assessment of the situation. A better way to look at it would be to consider the ranges in the spot, AKA from a more mathematical perspective. I won't go too much into that in this thread. All in all, if villain is somewhat balanced here (unlikely but possible) "betting your entire range" is pretty terrible.
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Old 05-11-2017, 01:46 AM   #13
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

^^+1 Betting your entire range in any spot is generally not a good strategy.
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Old 05-11-2017, 07:39 AM   #14
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

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Originally Posted by Minatorr View Post
^^+1 Betting your entire range in any spot is generally not a good strategy.
I do agree that it is almost always best to have a balanced strategy or gto approach, but sometimes I do try to deviate from that approach to maximize my profits in certain situations and against less skilled players. I will try to avoid using words like "feel" in the future and try to explain my thoughts better with a more mathematical approach.
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Old 05-11-2017, 07:44 PM   #15
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

I think you play hand just ok.V sizing otr is pretty bad,your range is weak and he dosnt rep anything except strong value hands that want to go for c/r ott,so he should bet really big otr.
Dont bet turn for protection with small pocket pairs because two overs have only 12 % of equity JJ QQ are value bet and dont bet AK because V dont fold any pairs imo and you can fold out hands like AQ AJ Ax which is bad.I dont get the reason No.3 it looks like samll flaw in your thought process.Why you want to prevent V form bluffing when you have range full of bluff catchers? And you can disguise your range by checking 99 or 78s with flush draw not by betting hands that you dont know how to play if V continue either by c/c or c/r.I mean if you bet AK ott and he calls.Do you bluff otr or you check beck ...
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Old 05-14-2017, 10:29 AM   #16
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

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Originally Posted by Haizemberg93 View Post
I think you play hand just ok.V sizing otr is pretty bad,your range is weak and he dosnt rep anything except strong value hands that want to go for c/r ott,so he should bet really big otr.
Dont bet turn for protection with small pocket pairs because two overs have only 12 % of equity JJ QQ are value bet and dont bet AK because V dont fold any pairs imo and you can fold out hands like AQ AJ Ax which is bad.I dont get the reason No.3 it looks like samll flaw in your thought process.Why you want to prevent V form bluffing when you have range full of bluff catchers? And you can disguise your range by checking 99 or 78s with flush draw not by betting hands that you dont know how to play if V continue either by c/c or c/r.I mean if you bet AK ott and he calls.Do you bluff otr or you check beck ...
I would never bet just for the sake of preventing bluffs, but I think it's a good thing for us to happen, just an added value.

If our entire range is made up of bluffcatchers, meaning villains bluffs are worse than our range + villains valuebets are better than our range, I'd say thats pretty bad for us. Then villain can just bet an appropriate amount and he profits. In this case, it would be awesome if villain doesn't bet, we get to see a cheap showdown which is exactly what we want to do in this bluffcatcher situation.

Btw if we have bluff catchers and a read that villain bluffs too much, that's a different story, we want villain to bluff because we actually make money that way.
In a spot where we don't know, we'd much prefer villain to not bet.

This is just in theory though, I'm not sure about betting the turn as a whole, you make some great points.
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:47 AM   #17
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

In theory range made of bluffcatchers never bet into the polar range because in that case polar range just raise with value hands and bluff and then we are in same spot as we are if we check and he bets just we increase his EV.I agree that we dont want to see polar betting but we dont get raised even more.

For example if V c/r with flush draws as bluff and over pairs and better for value.When you bet AK and he raise you sometimes you fold the best hand which is really bad.Imo its better to bet small pairs because they can be out drawn by Vs c/f range but most of V c/f range AK dominates so you dont have that problem with that hand.
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Old 05-15-2017, 01:47 PM   #18
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Re: NL50z - thoughts on turn + river

Lol gl calling these rivers and expecting to show a profit. You might be like "yaayyyy i played it gto XD" but you'll have to do it while the other guy is taking your money from you.
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