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nl200sh spewing vs LanderD preflop nl200sh spewing vs LanderD preflop

02-02-2009 , 09:59 PM
Hero (BTN): $220.70
SB: $447.45
BB: $295.80
CO: $229.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with K 8
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, SB raises to $20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $220.70 all in

Villian LanderD 26/23 he probably 3bets here around 20%, 3bets 14% overall.
Yesterday he 5b shoved me in sb vs bb over a small 4b with 56o.
Also saw him bluff4betting very tight 3bettors with 45o.
He 3bets me a ton, i play 30/25 with high AtS...
He is probably somewhat decent pre but i don't he balances his ranges well at all.
I don't fold that much to his 3bets but he doesn't seem to care.

I usually 4bet small and call it off or fold but i saw him 5betting light a lot, so i thought shoving might be better.... Thoughts?
I definitly do this sometimes with TT+,AK so there's no reason for him to snap AJ or 99. He might obviously view this different. What do you think about his calling range?
02-02-2009 , 10:24 PM
haven't played with him recently enough to be confident about his calling range but i estimated {99+,AQ+} and did some math gruntwork for you because i was bored. assuming his range is the previous, he needs to fold 75.1% of the time for this to be a profitable shove. {99+,AQ+} is the top 5.1% of hands, so if you think he is reraising at least 20.5% of his hands here your play is +EV. for reference (though it's not too applicable as he's probably polarizing his 3b range) the top 20.% of hands is {66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo}

20% seems pretty nuts as a 3bet% out of the blinds against a btn raise, but again, dont know too much about LanderD in particular. i kinda doubt this is the best play though. i don't mind a call tbh


EDIT: oh lol didn't even see that you already estimated his 3b% in this particular spot. i mean if your guess is spot on, shoving here is almost exactly a neutral EV play.

Last edited by societymax; 02-02-2009 at 10:34 PM.
02-02-2009 , 10:28 PM
dunno if its smart to sit at that table if he is gonna have position and pound on you a ton. I don't mind flatting and raising flops or floating, but since you guys have history, id rather 4bet than just shove cause i don't think he would expect you to shove anything like TT+, AK here.
02-02-2009 , 10:29 PM
I'd probably prefer to flat and see a flop with a lot of stuff, as he is really quite bad postflop.

      
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