NL200 trips - river decision - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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NL200 trips - river decision

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05-09-2011 , 08:52 AM

Porpoise

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 126

Villain: 21/17 (utg open 21%), fold to 3bet 9/9, cbet 47%, agresion 22% (river 0%). 500 hands
notes: fastplay pair+FD on the flop.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($420)
BB ($197)
UTG ($401)
CO ($105)
Hero ($238)

Dealt to Hero A

UTG raises to $7, fold, Hero calls $7, SB calls $6, fold

FLOP ($23) K

SB checks, UTG bets $17, Hero calls $17, SB folds

TURN ($57) K

UTG bets $32, Hero calls $32

RIVER ($121) K

UTG bets $72, Hero ?

05-09-2011 , 09:12 AM

thatssosick

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 4,443

i would call because he can be vbetting worse/same hand, bluffing, you take out a lot of flush combos with your blocker.

05-09-2011 , 09:43 AM

Richyrich9987

adept

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 1,159

This is tough. I mean, you take out a lot of flush combos with the Ac and he raised under the gun which takes away a lot of his non JJ boats. I suppose he could do this with AA, QQ, JJ... Possily KQs... KJ and KT are unlikely although possible

I think you have to call here but it's a bot closer than one would expect.

05-09-2011 , 09:57 AM

bstubbs

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19

during play i probably just click call and consider it close enough to not worry too much.
however, his low agg and riv agg stats make me lean towards fold here.

05-09-2011 , 11:15 AM

FallsviewPokerPro

banned

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 2,477

I would have raised every street prior to the river.

05-09-2011 , 04:27 PM

Cabe

adept

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 976

Quote:

Originally Posted by thatssosick

i would call because he can be vbetting worse/same hand, bluffing, you take out a lot of flush combos with your blocker.

I agree, calling, but not happy about it.

05-09-2011 , 10:36 PM

Oliver Klozoff

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,099

Wow... meh.

We need like 27%+ on river call.

This guy seems pretty nitty/passive. Let's say we give him a range of AK-KJ, JJ, 88, and Tc9c to 6c5c. We're like 26%.

If we cut out a few SC combos, we can justify a call, but we also need consider if this guy is betting KQ 100% on this river. If he isn't it's pretty much a disaster for us.

All things considered, I think it's a close fold vs this guy, a close call vs more aggressive regs.

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