Hey, Villain is 24/19/2.2 with 60% fold to 3b over 15 samples. He hasn't 4b yet. Stats over 450 hands
Fold to flop cbet is 60% (No stat in 3b pots)






No history, and I think I didn't 3bet him anytime earlier this session, haven't played him much before either

Dont try to make people fold a full house. Villain have almost none air and look at the river and see good odds.
Just c/f flop or turn.

c/f flop

Wow, he has stuff like JJ a lot here and people just aren't folding that.

this would work vs me, i would fold JJ and worse, thinking dude cant be crazy enough bluffing this or valuebetting Tx all the way with no history,and im repping JJ+ when callin u all streets and maybe some Tx hands too

Nobody plays JJ like this and then folds this river.
Just c/f flop

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,175,307 games 8.909 secs 1,815,614 games/sec

Board: 7s 8h Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.711% 46.20% 01.75% 7472821 282699.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 52.289% 50.80% 01.75% 8216882 282700.00 { random }

I c/f flop.
Turn is a bad barrel card so I c/f turn.
On river he's going to have a boat and people don't fold those, so c/f river.

If you had a read that he fastplays a set here or that he 4bets high pairs I would like this more. If you have a tight 3bet image I also like this more.

Your hand really does look like qq+. I would fold QQ/JJ or Tx if I somehow got here with thosE

Well his calling range vs a 3b is not [random].

I c/f that flop. You really aren't getting much too fold on that flop. JJ-QQ is not folding that flop. I would take out QQ some cause I would 4bet/c or maybe call 3bet to slowplay and shove over the flop in that spot. JJ seems like the only hand better that you can get to fold. Maybe 66 as well.

Trust me man - give him a range and you will find it only gets worse. And this is irrelevant anyhow as 22 is ahead but people still fold to a cbet.

I just find it funny that ak is behind a random hand :-) and I think a cbet isn't profitable on that board regardless, even just bcz people will dick around with you with air sometimes.

Thanks for the answers.

I think the argument of "people don't fold boats" is a bit bad though, I mean, a competent NL200 reg thinks in relative hand strenghts, and having 8x, 99 or Tx there is the same as having AK pretty much, if not worse because with AQ/AK your blocking AA/KK/QQ

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/zeebo/
Yeah it's a bad argument :-) But having a boat seems to make people more likely to decide to bluffcatch for some psychological reason.

Results? :-) Did bluff work?

Despite him knowing that ppl usually don't try 2 Bluff People off boats at these stakes, He still might Call given positions (also depends wether He thinks ur aggro or Not..) + he can still have all the Monsters on this Board and possibly would haved flatted a Big pair pre since he's yet 2 4bet makes this a c/f somewhere, prefering otf obv

Depend a lot on your image also. How much do you 3 bet vs a steal? Does this vilain is able to float you on 2 street?

If you 3 bet a lot and cbet near 80% I guess he float a lot and maybe your 3 barrel get's good in this situation. But if you 3 bet like 5% and you don't cbet much you are always beat here and your play is bad in this situation.

Your image is also very important in those spot.

But at the other hand if we 3b alot and cb alot we should get less cred, so he could call down lighter.
Dont really see villain float this board to often, he probably just has a hand, and in that case a nittier 3b% should work in our advantage. But with that said, he probably aint folding JJ here anyways.

Yep, I'm with you here, and I would fold <JJ too OTR without history. However, I can tell by experience that you and I are a rarity in that department (whether that's good or not is up to debate, but that's not really the issue here), which is why this bluff is so bad.

It's 50/50 for me.
I do it aswell sometimes.

But you made a crucial mistake imo.
I would snap call you with a T in my hand, just because your betsizing is way off. 1/2 pot every street and then jamming? lol no. make it consistent

Thanks. Hmmm interesting, that's probably my standard sizing in any 3b pot, i just shove the river with what's left if it's less than 3/4 pot.

this.

I'm not so sure you would jam river here with AA on a 777 board, on this potsize.

I'd go for a valuebet

Betsizing is completely standard. This is the betsizing they teach you to do in all the videos... don't listen to that guy :-)

Well our river betting range is extremly polarised between JJ+ and total airballs. His calling range is pretty much all bluffcatchers, except for slowplayed AA/KK.

So why bet smaller for value ?