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[NL100] AQo 3b pot river decision [NL100] AQo 3b pot river decision

07-23-2015 , 09:34 AM
SB: $109 (109 bb)
Hero (BB): $224.05 (224.1 bb)
UTG: $201.70 (201.7 bb)
MP: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $132.65 (132.7 bb)
BTN: $95 (95 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q A
3 folds, BTN raises to $2, SB folds, Hero raises to $8, BTN calls $6

Flop: ($16.50) A 9 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $8.03, BTN calls $8.03

Turn: ($32.56) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $16, Hero calls $16

River: ($64.56) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $34, Hero ???

Opp is reg 25/20/9 1.3k hands RFI BU 59%, Fto3b BU 61%, Fl range vs 3b OTB 16%, Fold to CB in 3b pot 33/25(4)/na, Float IP 31/56/0(2)
WtSD 35 WatSD 52 WWSF 50

We have an aggressive dynamic in session, lots of 3b/4b violence. Dono if its matter or not for this river decision.
Anyway, what do you think is the best line here from flo xc,xc,xf? Because i don't really like the way i play it, i am face up here and now dono what to do? Will he make me fold my ace here often enough, that I can make this call? For example he can use KQ,KJ,KT,QJ,QT,JT,T8,87,76dd for this?
07-23-2015 , 11:37 AM
Why on earth would you fold after this line?

Just go bet bet shove tho.
07-23-2015 , 12:55 PM
BTN first bet could have been a steal, however, when Hero (BB) raised to 8 and BTN called with something. If BTN had AA or KK he most likely would have re-raised. His most likely hands are: AK or pocket pairs JJ-88.

On the A,9, 9 rainbow flop, Hero makes a 1/2 size continuation bet with TP good kicker and is smooth called. A complete miss by BTN would have called for a fold, since he called his most likely hands: AJ, A9, A pocket pair of Jacks or tens.

On the turn Hero checks on the theory of small hand - small pot. BTN pushes the action with a 1/2 size pot value bet. It is now crunch time. Did the BTN just attach the indicated weakness of our Hero's check or is the BTN holding a monster A-9 or 9x?

A re-raise of another $16 by Hero after the turn bet by the BTN would offer the best chance of success. If BTN then comes over the top Hero has a much easier fold decision than the one he faces on the river.

On the river Hero again checks and invites aggression from the BTN who promptly makes another value bet of 1/2 the pot. BTN has now committed $58 of his $95 stack and could be considered committed. Hero is not in the same position with his larger stack. At this point probably best to make a crying call and hope the BTN originally called with AJ.
07-23-2015 , 01:11 PM
Yea Im bet bet shoving here.

As played I'm def calling river. Only lose to AK and AA which he's prolly 4betting pre
07-23-2015 , 01:17 PM
I am not so sure about the shove on the river by our Hero. True the BTN is most likely committed, however, our hero is in either a way ahead or way behind situation and top pair good kicker is a murky murky holding considering the aggression from the button. For what happen I like the smooth call on the river. If Hero shoves the only way IMO that he is called is if he is beat unless the BTN is a calling station which I doubt considering the betting. Hero is getting 3 to 1 on the call why make it worse with a iffy holding?:crazy.
07-23-2015 , 01:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daaabatman
As played I'm def calling river. Only lose to AK and AA which he's prolly 4betting pre
Totally not true. Guy has 24% of hands he's calling preflop here if the stats are accurate. He has quite a few 9x and 99.
07-23-2015 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ved
Why on earth would you fold after this line?

Just go bet bet shove tho.
I can see that this is common play. But what worse hand will call you here? Only AJ. I think I do miss a value bet OTT, and then i have easy x/f, because nobody will bet here worse Ax.
07-23-2015 , 04:03 PM
I think x/c x/c x/c is a better line than bet x/c x/c. Keeps more bluffs in his range.

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07-23-2015 , 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtlow
I think x/c x/c x/c is a better line than bet x/c x/c. Keeps more bluffs in his range.

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Might as well start checking everything then so they can bluff..
07-23-2015 , 05:35 PM
You should have 9x here as well fwiw, makes sense to barrel that most frequently when you don't block an ace and get at least 2 streets. It makes Ax an easier check OTF because Ax is way ahead/way behind. AQ specifically is high enough where I'll mix, probably c-betting ~50%. I think this is a board I'd be checking pretty frequently, maybe I'm wrong?

Call river. You're getting a really good price with a decent hand for your range and villain could feasibly value bet worse.
07-23-2015 , 08:58 PM
Getting a good price on the river call. Definitely calling here.
07-23-2015 , 09:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
Might as well start checking everything then so they can bluff..
No. I def wouldn't be checking AK and 9x hands, they would be b/b/b. I just think if you feel you're not going to be able to get 3 streets because it will be to thin by turn or river then I think checking the flop is better cause villain will still have all of his 3bet calling range and most will be air on such a dry board and will feel compelled to bluff more combos.

Fwiw I think you can b/b/b AQ also. As played I'd call.

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07-23-2015 , 11:14 PM
With the dynamic you described maybe just bet bet bet is better, But I don't have any problem with the way you played the hand you get him to bluff his floats and he probably always VB's Ax.
07-24-2015 , 09:47 AM
Turn is a mandatory bet imho. River then is close between bet and check, depending on villain. He should have 13 combos of 9x and 99. So if he only calls a third barrel on the river with AJ or better, that is not enough.

      
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