but then he doesn't go all in after he's built this big pot...

no i saw it, and im not sure why he can have AA here (AA adn QQ are both obv possibilities) but not be capable of calling PF in pos 200 bb's deep with some marginal hands too... like Q8s, 58s etc
and you guys think he pretty much never has Q8s, 58s, 78s, or 46s right?

I didn't miss this, sorry. I thought this was an obvious call and that you are saying basically the same thing Casper said (with more words)

bilbo-san,

villain HAS coldcalled OOP with AA in the past, so QQ+ def are in this guys range. reread the OP

I really don't see the snapcall here. Villain is obviously reading that hero can beat the Q by calling 1 massive raise and 1 moderate turn bet. He isn't risking his 200BB+ stack on a possible tie.

[censored], AA being in his range doesnt really change things for me...because if he's played AA like a donkey before, he's more than capable of playing JJ like one now.

Pretty much my thoughts exactly, especially given how passively you have played your KK here. AQ must be a huge part of his range.

What?

like 300000 posts and noones asked about sb yet?

c'mon, you can't be serious?

haha, ok not JJ...but yes I am serious when I say that just bc AA is now in his range doesnt make it a fold...If you are going to extend his range one way because of 1 hand (that played weird anyway bc it was a blind battle) then you have to extend it at least a little the other way as well.

umm... is sb a lady-boy?

Anyway, there's no reason to think AA is still in his range here 240BB deep and not closing the action. The circumstances of the previous hand were probably different.

Clear fold. That turn and river bet are begging for value. I don't think he's triple barrel bluffing here, and I don't think he is value betting a worse hand when he can close the action in a massive pot. What would he do if you pushed? Obviously call, so he is willing to risk the rest of his stack to win a 99$ bet when he could just check behind, without a read that he is a complete moron this is an easy fold.

also nobody has even attempted to answer this question...

As played you defo have to call the riverbet.

Your flop Cbet looks a bit weak to be honest and AQ might defo take this line. Villains turn bet isn't protecting anything by betting halfpot. IMO this may well be TPTK/GK.

I think villain bets more on turn if he has a bigger hand than TP. Your passive line thereafter may well leave villain thinking he is value betting the river.

I call.

i can't think of a single hand that would check/shove this river instead of just valuebetting it as played, exactly because like everyone said villain should check behind AQ here

so no i don't think villain is scared of a c/r, and i think this is a fairly easy call

also, coldcalling AA in the blinds (maybe in the SB with a very nitty or very fishy BB behind, maybe in the BB closing the action) is different from coldcalling it OTB ... we should at least discount the amount of combos of AA he can show up with imho, same goes for QQ

and we need like what? 40% equity? you need to be able to discount AQ A LOT to fold here and i don't think you can do that (especially given that we also have to discount sets somewhat because they want to get it AI by the river => they bet turn bigger)

Isn't bet-folding this turn the equivalent of betting for info?

somewhat yeah

i think flop&turn are played perfectly, i'm still in doubt between valuebet/fold river (Qx might call, but might fold, he might shove as a bluff but that's very unlikely given that call flop c/c turn bet river is a strong line imho) or c/c it (some hands we beat check behind, we might get valuebet to death, we see a showdown)

no he's still 20/18

yeah i don't think so

3bet flop is ok (and what I would do without much thought) but prolly call and CR turn is best value. unlikely he is raising this big on flop with a set. KQ/AQ much more likely. set prolly just calls flop and raises turn.

Say hello to valuetown. Can't see this being 76 or AQ enough to call river.

Just because the only hand that beats us is 55/88, does not make this a call for me. Since it is the line he takes with 55 and 88 always, and probably only rarely with 76 or AQ.

What? That makes zero sense to me. He does not raise big on flop and go for three streets of value with a set, but will do so with AQ/KQ? I think he is more likely to have 76 that AQ/KQ if anything.

Calling flop and raising turn with set here would make everything super easy for hero.

this is exactly why the 8 is a good card

55 and 88 are 4 combos
you need 40% equity (wild guess ) to call

so there need to be 3 (out of 15) combos of AQ/76s in his range ... if he plays AQ/76s like this 20% of the time it's a call, even when he always plays sets like this (i still think sets too should be discounted somewhat because sets often bet the turn a bit bigger so they can shove river for slightly below pot)

if he rly can show up here with AA QQ it's closer but they has to be discounted a lot imho, even with out read