so basically you want to compare the number of combos of wiffed flush draws + 22/33/55-88 to the number of combos of QTs, KJs, 44, other trickily played hands and then try to estimate how often he must be firing both turn + river with those to determine if a call is profitable. unfortunately its too late for me to do that much math at the moment...

but im still curious if you thought about betting the river?

Betting turn is a bluff, but prob okay. I doubt they'll fold AT/AQ there, but we have some outs. Betting river seems horrible with pretty much our whole range (assuming we c/c turn).

I'm completely lost but I'll try - maybe someone can point me to a flaw in my thinking and help me improve.

I don't think he calls very often with QT, KJ, A4 pf - maybe if he can count on the blinds to come along. Were they that kind of donks who call with 94s in that spot? If so than he can surely have QTs, KJs or A4s

I believe 44 is more probable even though there are less possible combos, small PPs are the most likely hands tags call IP with imo

Other than that he can bet JTs, QJs hands on the turn, he has position and he has to think a better hand would have bet either flop or turn. Again I'm not sure if he would CC with a SC but it's more likely than calling with gappers

also we cant rule out the possibilty that btn checked behind flop with sets or 2pr. its unlikely, but it does make a difference. i think that scenarioe is more likely than villain having AQ and both flat calling pf AND checking flop

If the blinds are terrible he can call with A4s, opting to play in pos. vs 2 donks and a player who raises light.

i can't really see the villain checking behind any good made hands on the flop (2 pairs/sets). he may check behind QT because he doesn't think he can get everyone (the donks) to fold

so either he has QT or the turncard helped him.

ther are a tonne of SC's he could have that the 4c helped.

how many are in his preflop range, idk. with donks in the blind, the best strategy is to take flops with a huge range of SC's and Sgappers, broadway hands even become profitable. however, alot of mediocre TAGs just mindlessly 3bet these hands and shut out the donks, so if he is one of these players i think 44 is his most likely holding

if he is any good, he could have a fairly wide range of holdings.

whether he would fire the river with busted draws is another question. because of your perceived weakness he may fire the river, even turning something like T9cc into a bluff because although you are weak, you probably have SD value like a Jx or something.

if he is really good, he should be valuebetting the river with a Kx hand here, and there are some out there

he's betting any Ax+ as well as nines on the flop so you can rule out aces up or better aces on the river. QT he could bet or check on the flop as well as KJ. there's no way to know but he would def. bet both those hands on the turn, as well as a set of fours. on the river he will follow through with any air or hand you're ahead of that he was either bluffing or semibluffing with since he's aggressive, but he'll also value bet all hands that have you beat. if he's very aggressive call cause you look weak, he won't necessarily assume that you're not drawing on the turn, and/or will think he can move you off w/e made hand you may have. if he's just aggressive flip a coin cause it's too close given the limited read.

I dunno, do 19/17s call all kj hands? His hand seems like that or 44. @ the same time I'd happily valuebet kq w/ how you played hand, as well as bluff a bunch of whiffed hands because your hand looks like a small ace @ best.

its a bluff a hudge % his range is narrow and polarised hope he didnt hit str8 with QTcc

ohhhh, u don't quite win this thread but u definitely just scored major points

c/c turn lead river you mean? I wasn't alluding to some math calculations its just hand reading, maybe some simple calcs

also degreez you've made two very very nice posts in threads I've posted today, nh.

This certainly depends on how bad the blinds are and how ******ed he is.

hand reading - lol, bet the flop donkey

Im guessing villan prob bets any decent made hand on the flop given its texture so anything like 99 any 2pair any ace. I dont think he has QT hardly ever here given preflop KJs is more likely but still dont think he calls preflop with that very often.

Are we assuming he always 3bets TT? thats prob correct I guess

small PP's and SCs I think make up alot of his range.

so 44 makes sense. does villan ever bluff the river with like 89clubs here? you line looks pretty weak and everything missed so that makes some sense to me.

No way is KJ a likely hand for him to have imo - he almost never bets soo strongly with mid pair on the turn.

imo betting this flop is far inferior to checking

put me in the 44/QT/clubs/A4s camp

no KJ imho

Yeah, I think this is KJ pretty much never. It looks like Q10, 44 and busted clubs with it being heavily weighted to 44. I think a lot of 19/17's fold Q10, A4 type hands pre most of the time. Mid suited connectors and 44 are much more in his range I would think.

The passive play makes it hard to read. (FWIW, that's not a criticism I play this the same in/ order to get value) I think 44 is it, although 99 maybe too. I don't see him calling alot with the hands that a lot of hands people have given him credit for PF. If I did, then the river bet is as likely a busted draw as a monster but I think his calling range is considerably narrower.

ya, thats what i was getting at. c/c turn, donk river.
i assume you think his range is mostly small pairs, but im not so sure he bets the river with them a very high % of the time. defintely not as often as he would bet complete air/2pr+ imo (and i dont think he has air very often at all - only 8Ts?).
but i still think that hero's line would look like a draw and villain will call down light on a blank river if we lead

I think 44 is the strongest contender. I can also see KJ of clubs. It's not his standard button calling range, but you can't totally discount it. It also makes sense that he could bet second pair on the turn with all of his extra outs...and then he vb's 2 pair on river.

he 3bets 99 on the button, right? I don't think it's healthy to always just put guys on a set..

And since the topic is hand reading, if u bet one of the streets (TURN- equity strong) his range is actually defined as opposed to this needle in the haystack style of passively trying to put a player blasting away in position on a hand. It just makes life a lot easier if you are indeed willing to put more money in the pot anyway..just bet it (to define his hand i mean) and cut the bulls balls off while you have the chance..

whatever he has, I'm not calling river. I know I know. Not relevant
What everyone else said pretty much (QT,KJ,44,A4). I doubt he's firing river w/ clubs

^most people ccall w/ 99. Only some 3bet it pf^

Oh yeah, why the hell aren't we betting turn? That kinda makes me wanna call river, but I hate "having" to call just cuz we played the hand wrong.

OP says he 3bets 10% of hands. i don't have this stat on my hud but that sounds pretty high and these guys will for sure 3bet 99 otb because they saw sbrugby do it.

I think a set/2pr on the flop are much less likely because villain would have bet those hands 4way. It would be one thing if he were oop and missed a c/r, but here he just let it check through. I think this villain bets for value like ALWAYS with 99, JJ, A9, AJ.