Villain is a very standard straightforward TAG, 20/16 over 2.4k hands. Fold to cbet 59%, fold to turn bet 60%, wtsd 21, 3bet otb 6%. Call open 6% otb. Don't have a single note on him which probably means he is never doing anything noteworthy. Raises 20% of cbets but is definetly never raising any part of his range on this flop (except bluffs).

My image was crazy, was 30/24 this session with a 3bet of 10%, lots of barreling etc, even though nothing crazy going on with this particular villain.

SB was some laggish reg, BB was a huge 47/12 bluffy fish. I think buttons flatting range should be much wider because of BB.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($200.00)
Hero (CO) ($257.00)
BTN ($360.00)
SB ($220.00)
BB ($257.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO J Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $7, BTN calls $7, SB calls $6, 1 fold

Flop: J 2 4 ($23, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, BTN calls $16, SB folds

Turn: 5 ($55, 2 players)
Hero bets $40, BTN calls $40

River: J ($135, 2 players)
Hero bets $92, BTN goes all-in $297, $102 to Hero ($102)?

So, I need 20%. Against 44,22,AJs,KJs,QJs,J9s,JTs,AJo I have 17%. If we add 55 it gets even worse. If we don't add 55 but add KJo, QJo and JTo I get 30%. I don't know how often he's raising sets on the turn and I'm not sure how often he's shoving stuff like J9s on the river. His raise turn cbet is 0% so far out of 4 opportunities (hmm not sure if this is correct). Not sure how often he's floating the flop with backdoors or w/e.

Comments on turn and river line too? I think betting turn is fine with my image, I still have 52% against 22+,AJs,KJs,QJs,J9s+,AJo. (I suppose he might flat big pairs some of the time to keep the BB fish in). Not sure if he's folding some weaker part of this range on the flop or turn though. Maybe c/c is better? Very marginal at least. Pretty sure it's fine with my image. On the river I was thinking "hmmh bet-fold" but then he shoves and I'm like ****... well I'm getting 1:4!

The shove was instant btw.

not a huge fan of your bet sizing all that much, there arent a ton of Jx that you really get value from, youre more targeting the types of hands like 88 or w/e. and w/ that said, you probably dont even have to bet this large when bluffing either (i just feel like your river bet sizing is a bit polarized, betting this large even w/ like AA or as a bluff seems meh you know?). meh.

man this is a ****ed up spot, bet/fold seems optimal to me given reads. You stoved the numbers so it appears to be a fold. Also, I wouldnt include JTo on river and JQo have less combos...making a fold slightly more plausible? I want to say the betsizing is bad somewhere to end up in this spot, but dont see a street I would change as a standard.

I don't think being polarized is a bad thing?? If we're looking to get value from midpair type of hands it would be a good thing not to have QQ+ on my range, right? Tons of Ax hands and backdoor fd missed etc.

edit: I guess betting turn a bit smaller could be ok

Also, villain is a 27bb/100 winner over this sample size so he's probably pretty solid

edit2: Meh, if villain is the floaty type he could have A3hh, A3cc and A3ss in his range too

actually i think its a fold for sure after thinking about it more

I like how you played it up until now, I'd fold river pretty comfortably w/ reads

I think bet sizing is fine. Maybe a little too much on river but id rather bet alot on the turn than bet less and face a raise and not be sure what to do. I guess id fold river though it sucks.

grosss but fold. sizing seems fine

You really bet QQ+ like this on the river?

That's gross. His range is Jx and pocket pairs, why would you stick half a buyin in with an overpair? To lose the max when you are behind and get him to fold when you are ahead?

I'd bet way less with overpairs, and with your current hand. Probably only betting more AJ and with boats.

What I'm saying is that if villain is considering a call with 99, it's a good thing for me for my range to be polarized to Jx or better since there is more stuff that he beats. Agree? If not, why?

I am not a big fan of the turn bet, and I don't like the sizing. Even with your crazy image it's going to be hard to get 3 streets of value from worse. I would actually often check that turn, and if I bet, I would bet closer to half pot.
River is meh. I guess with your image I call, but it's close IMO.

Villain dependent of course, but I agree w/ this. He kind of has to hero call anyways, so might as well get the most out of him we can when we actually are ahead.

pretty sick spot, i think ur hand by the river is pretty much face up to Jx, or bluffs. So if villian is competent it will be a pretty stupid spot for him to try and bluff u if he has SD value he would just call.

I like ur reasoning on ur betsizing that it's good to polarize ur range in this spot.

All that being said i like a fold on the river

Yeah, I'd say it's close...BUT w/ the possible wheel draw coming out, I think you have to bet since they can put you AX a whole lot and keep calling.

Only thing I don't like about this, is that we give him the chance to raise the turn (w/ floats and legit hands) and end up out-leveling ourself into doing something dumb.

Yeah this is a really really good point IMO. There's no reason for him to turn like 99/TT into a bluff now. Only hands I could possibly see doing this are like A5/56 and even those might just call sometimes.

I think by polarized Orange means you have nuts or air here, and never QQ-AA, and this isn't a good thing.

It would be better if you were betting, say $65 with all your value hands and all your bluffs. He can't just snap-bluff-catch with pps because you will pwn his ass with QQ+

Basically, you "rep nothing", making bet/folding with this hand Eeeewww, but he doesn't have a lot of draws in his range that can be busted, and that makes bet/calling with this hand Eeeeewww.

I like a half pot bet on turn. Just seems like you are turning your hand into a bluff when you fire a near 3/4 bet on the turn. Then river you can get crazy and bet a 3/4 pot sized bet because he will think you are FoS with your J now and call with 99,TT etc.

As played easy fold... I don't think you beat anything here.

bsaically i agree with a lot that has been said. with this river bet size you are rarely getting called by much worse. villain probably isn't shove JT for value that often and there aren't many hands he's turning into bluffs after your bet size and his raise size. as played that makes this ane asy fold.

and i don't get this:
if you were "thinking hmmh bet-fold" then why did you chose this amount? before chosing to bet you should have realized the odds you'd be getting on a shove and realized that "getting 1:4" may not have been good enough to call since his shoving range ****s your range in half. it's one thing if villain is sopme uber-fish that calls 99% of his range here, TAGs aren't calling that many hands that you beat and his value range for shoving this river (since his bluff range should be rather nonexistant) is pretty ****ing destroying of your hand

agree that betsizing is suboptimal, ok it might be good to be polarized etc. but does villain really think on that level?
just bet a small amount like halfpot getting value from worse pairs/worse J's and leaving u enough room to indeed fold (what u should do now, props to him if its a bluff)

and btw. people don't ever shove worse J's here, maybe not even KJ

To be honest, I think you should have done a better job controlling the pot on earlier streets like flop and turn vs this guy. Its not really a type of board where you need to protect and not a type of hand or villain where you want to inflate and go for 7 streets of value. Now that its practically a minraise - what you gonna do, but obv your hating it cos he never bluffs. Think about the range that your targeting on earlier streets. If you bet like 12-13 and then like 27-29 on the turn, you would have ~105 in the pot with ~210 behind.

With your image he will never raise a set before the river. I think its a fold although some players might raise JT or J9 on the river against lower Jx or AA.

betsizing depends on which level he is on; if hes a good handreader bigger is better, if hes not smaller is. but i dont think anyone pays alot of attention to sizing and most people autopilot sooooo smaller should be better.

I'm not fond of folding the top of your range on the river when you've been barreling alot and are getting great odds. A pretty simple view, but also an unexploitable one. Him being able to make you fold everything short of a boat in a spot where you're probably barreling frequently is pretty sick. I'm not good enough to say he's bad enough to be completely unable to realize that, so I call.

Firstly, there's a good chance the villain isn't even paying attention to your image. Even if he was, I don't see him peeling the turn with underpairs, because many of the hands that you barrel, like AQs, have a fair bit of equity, and will be triple barrelling pretty often.

Since the fish was in the pot, the villain will give your cbet more credit. He'd also be more likely to flat draws, to keep the fish in. (A3s and 65s).

Not sure about the turn bet. On the river I wouldn't even bet at all. I'd actually c/f to a big bet from a straight forward TAG. His range for calling is J8s-AJs, JTo-AJo, sets, A3s. That makes up 4.8% of hands in stove. Yes I've taken combo's into account. You get value from JTo, J8s-JTs. 1% of hands. So, you get called by better 3.8/4.8 = 79% of the time. : /

Mayyybe a slow played overpair could call, but his over-pairs won't take this line any where near 100% of the time anyway.

Am I missing something here?

Oh, and FWIW you chop ~14% of the time, but ya... seems to me you're getting called by better way more than 50% of the time here. You just value owned yourself. : P

Oh, and just one last point lol. That J on the river is the dumbest card for you to be 3 barrel bluffing from his perspective. I doubt he levels himself into putting air in your range here often. Your 30/20 ish stats are just for the session, and the reg could well have more hands on you than you have on him.