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Old 05-16-2017, 01:23 PM   #1
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flopped nuts river spot after board pair

iPoker - $6 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $872.54 (VPIP: 30.40, PFR: 21.62, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 2,659)
CO: $518.00 (VPIP: 26.65, PFR: 17.36, 3Bet Preflop: 7.29, Hands: 664)
Hero (BTN): $1,148.97
SB: $780.28 (VPIP: 49.02, PFR: 27.85, 3Bet Preflop: 9.38, Hands: 626)

SB posts SB $3.00, BB posts BB $6.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $9.00) Hero has K T

CO raises to $15.00, Hero calls $15.00, fold, BB calls $9.00

Flop: ($48.00, 3 players) 8 A 2
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $22.67, BB raises to $69.57, fold, Hero calls $46.90

Turn: ($187.14, 2 players) 2
BB bets $157.14, Hero calls $157.14

River: ($501.42, 2 players) 4
BB checks, [color=red]Hero

Yes, it's a 4max table.

I find this situation weird because checking back feels like a total weaknit move but at the same time in practice I think they almost never check a low flush to us otr but they might play A2 like this (and for good reason).

So what are trying to accomplish with a bet here exploitatively? Go small to induce a xj from 8x?

I don't really have reads on V relevant to this spot, generally he has seemed fairly aggressive postflop. He has river check raise 6/27 opportunities, which is a lot, but not sure statistical significance convergence of this kind of stat.
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Old 05-16-2017, 02:48 PM   #2
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Re: flopped nuts river spot after board pair

Yeah the CR stat is fairly relevant. That's really high, even though the sample size is small, so the convergence here is probably still going to be high. At least I'd read it that way.

8x is about the only bluff that really makes sense or 45. I like small VB and to induce slightly better than check behind. Also, small flush will check some% of the time (but mostly bet of course). I think between the stats you have so far, you can expect he'd turn those hands into bluffs at a high rate even though there's not a lot bluffs that make sense.
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Old 05-16-2017, 05:44 PM   #3
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Re: flopped nuts river spot after board pair

Am I the only person that thinks villain's line makes 0 sense for value without stats or reads on OP? Like if this is a way to extract more value from you why wouldn't villain bet so he can bluff and set the price?

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Old 05-17-2017, 02:11 AM   #4
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Re: flopped nuts river spot after board pair

Seems like a bad spot to go for a c/r for value was my 1st thought...

RE: river...interesting (and possibly not relevant) sim results. I'm becoming uncertain as to whether we can rely on decisions on later streets if the action otf is so contrary to what the solver recommends?

Otf we have a low freq stab by hero (only ~13% with the range i gave you) and a redic low c/r freq (5%.)

Ott BB's betting freq is again low (20%.)

Otr we do check this back 60% of the time (which is surprising to me.) given the options to bet 25;33 or shove, Pio likes shoving ur nut flush combos. If u do elect to bet small (25%) u only
b/c 45% of the time.

So, if river recommendations are still valid, it appears that checking back might be the play (since Pio mixed strat involves so many ancillary considerations and the assumption that villain plays perfectly as well.)

I will send you the Sim
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