Well you put him on a range and see how much what cards help him vs your range and then you'll roughly know what kind of hands you need to call down with and what you can fold.
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My point is that against a percieved good opponent but with no special reads in a situation like this It has to be reallly -EV to have a strategy of calling flop and then take it "from there" there is so many ways to make mistakes on turn and river that it is nearly impossible to make calling flop +EV.
Well you can always try to play as close to GTO as you can get. If he's a decent villain and you'll play him more often you shouldn't be concerned about making a +EV flop call in a vacuum but rather also about combatting his squeezing etc.
If you can't find +EV calldowns on this board and various runouts then flatting TT PF and playing it as anything but a setmine is likely a mistake.
You don't just "take it from there". Calling down to bluffcatch in these spots can be analyzed fairly well away from the tables using flopzilla etc. So once you c/c flop you should already know what hands in your range you'd c/c on this flop and how you play what turns+rivers.
Quick rundown:
Assumption: He only squeezes strong hands
Gameplan: Setmine, c/f all boards that don't contain a T
Assumption: He has a bluff squeezing range
Assumption 2: He'll probably mostly squeeze random Ax hands and broadways due to blockers...his range could be something like: TT+, AQ, AK; AJ, AT, KQ, KJ as a bluff and some random Ax hands let's say A5o to rep those
He may or may not squeeze AQ, TT etc for value against CO. We can improve the range by knowing if he flats suited aces, SCs in these spots for arguments sake we'll say he flats those and small pairs.
Vs that range we probably 4bet bluff some or flat wider. We'll 4bet for value with AA-QQ and half or more of the AK combos; we'll flat 99+, AQ and the other AK combos and we'll 4bet bluff some random stuff like AJ or whatever some time. Note that you can have completely different ranges here and be fine just some random tightish range for arguments sake..
On a flop of 662 we flop 46 combos total (used AKo, AQ, 99-JJ because I was lazy), against a halfpot bet we want to defend roughly 67%...so about 31 combos. 18 combos are overpairs, the rest are overcards...if we check/call JJ-99 and 13 overcard combos (lets say the three AQ combos with a BDFD and 10 AK combos) we get to the turn with this range:
JJ-99; 10xAK, 3xAQs...thats 34 combos; 67% = 23 combos
- on a blank low card we have 18 overpairs so we need to call 5 more combos
- on a Q we have 3xTPTK and 18 underpairs...this is the worst card for us and I'd probably fold a ton
- on A/K we have 9/12 combos of TP
You get the idea. Now look at his range, estimate how likely he is to bluff and correct the calling frequencies up/down. You could only ch/call overpairs if you want to but that'll put you in dumb spots on A,K turns it all depends on how much you think he bluffs.
Last edited by clowntable; 11-19-2011 at 11:26 AM.