I don't expect or hope for 2000 words but these few lost me. No position was assigned initially, so assume pfr has position and hero checks flop & pfr C bets this dry board. Are you saying that a c/r line is bad with any hand and to only lead for value - can't bluff as that is as bad as the villain Cbet with a tiny range begging to be rebluffed - or ch/c as our line.

The part " .....and the weaker parts of your range are not protected by a stronger c/c range." totally lost me

Not trying to derail Marshalls excellent thread but hoping you, he or anyone else could expand on this a little as it's above me.

No, im up >4k on him in 2k hands.

I googled him once and found a website where he is like a big icon to a lot of Spanish shortstackers, thought it was kinda funny.

This is the idea I was talking about earlier when I was saying I protect weaker parts of my range by playing other strong hands in a similar manner.

This means on A84r that I'm going to c/c a lot even with stuff as strong as AQ.

With the weaker parts like KQ/KJ, 22-77, 56s/67s I'll c/c and if the turn checks through I'll just bet the river a lot.

how many hands do you think you need to play at a stake before you can assume you're probably a winning player?

I can't give you a direct answer for this because I just don't know.

I have a piece of advice that should help you just as well to understand if you have an edge.

When you're sitting at the table, look at all the hands that have gone to showdown. Quickly analyze what went down, then determine the merits of each of the two players games based on what you see. If you see them making mistakes that you wouldn't make, this is a good sign that the games are good and you have an edge.

There's no way that you could become a 50 or 100nl reg and not be able to pick out bad play when you see it, so these are skills I'm sure you have.
Sometimes you will be lost when trying to analyze what was going on. If you are lost when reviewing hands played, and additionally, you seem to be getting pushed around quite a bit, chances are you are in a game where you are the worst player, this is one you cannot beat.

For me, it's rare I find a lineup where I don't believe to have an edge in a 6 handed game, but if I had a bigger bankroll and could play a lot higher, that kinda stuff would happen to me all the time I'm sure.

Screw it, I guess this thread can live a little longer

I usually play with a HUD. Using a HUD correctly takes a certain amount of skill because when using it, you need to be able to make certain distinctions in order to make better in game decisions. One thing I've always said is that In game reads ALWAYS trump statistical reads. I.E. If I think based on the game flow that my opponent is going to 5bet bluff over this 4bet with a wide range, and my statistical evaluation of his game says that he doesnt 5bet without the goods, I will always overlook the stats and focus more on the game flow. The stats are certainly very helpful for me in certain situations, but like I've said many times before: The stats are just one variable amongst many others to consider when making a decision.

The stats help me a lot more to narrow down ranges in particular spots, and often give me some of the best information to have in certain instances. A stat like "raise 1st in % from position" might be the most helpful stat to me of all other possibles. Turn barreling frequency probably is a close second here as that helps me to narrow ranges down the most.

What you are telling me is happening between you and this other guy, I think I can tell you exactly what has happened here.

He probably saw that you didn't handle being 3bet particularly well after trying it against you a few times (I'm assuming you didn't 4bet enough at this point, or you were just your 4bet range was probably too heavily weighted towards bluffs. Eventually you thought "hey, if this guy is going to shove over all my 4bets, I should stop 4bet bluffing, and I should just 4bet thinner for value". This is 100% the correct conclusion to come to that this point. And it's where you are right now, but now what I would guess is that because I am 90% confident that this opponent is a thinking one, he would recognize that you are 4b/calling lighter, so he decided to stop 3b/5b'ing hands like 22-66 and A2s-A5s, and more likely that he has now switched this 3betting range to just strong hands expecting you to adjust by 4bet/calling off too light, so he is just going to show up with the goods against you then.

Now here's the part where you gotta think real hard. How do you beat someone that is 3betting a decent amount, but no longer 5b bluffing and only 5b value shoving?

Anything higher than 8% would cause me to severely tighten my CO opening range, and it would cut it down to fewer hands than I'd be opening on the button, I'm talking like literally opening 13% of hands or so-- that is, until they start to pick up on it, in which case I'll open it back up until they start coming after again. It doesn't apply so much to the blinds because well, they don't need to worry about anyone else remaining in the pot who may happen to have a hand. For this reason, blind battles will always be where people should be trying to push as small of an advantage as they can.

To answer your question, it's just that a lot of the times the hands I open are dependent on my mood at the time. If I'm feeling frisky I open it up, if I'm feeling nitty and not happy to be grinding, I'm probably just playing a lot tighter to pass the time.

What stats do you use for this, turn cbet or turn AF or both?

How exactly do you use the stats i.e. is it along the lines of PF he has 44% of hands, he cbet which he does 100% on this board and now he bets turn. He has a turn cbet of 50% so we're facing roughly a 22% range (what it looks like is determined by flop+turn texture)

The reason that I gave you the answer I gave you is because you are asking the wrong questions. My answer was written assuming you had written the right question. You really shouldn't give a crap about these particular spots, because what's important is understanding why you should play them in one way or another. You don't learn by asking how I play those spots then go and try to copy it. Who has that ever worked for in the past?

Yes. The spots you need to think about if you want to pull off these types of plays are the ones that you would otherwise c/f. Too many people nowadays just c/f these 765dd flops so often when they have nothing, that when they do have something and start betting away, it sorta becomes kinda obvious what you have.

My solution for fixing these types of situations? Balance my c/f range which induces lots of weak stabs by guys with marginal holdings by c/r occasionally with either nutted hands, strong draws, or strong made hands. Draws I would be c/r would be stuff like 5s6s on 4s6h7d. I'd be c/r flop, barrel turn, and shove river unimproved. If I river the straight, against a lot of players I would c/c.

Other reasonable hands to do this with for value are flopped sets and flopped straights, other strong draws could be stuff like the NFD as a good randomizer.

In few cases do I ever relinquish the betting lead OOP unless I'm playing against a 90/20 fish (like one I played today) where he would just go nuts when I checked to him and start bombing away at the pot, but if I bet into him, he would muck so quickly.

I don't think I'm the right person to ask this question because I honestly don't know the correct answer. It's obv fish dependent.

Here's a general piece of advice that might help though: If the fish takes initiative of the pot away from you at any point and you continue to just press call against him, no matter if he has it or if he's bluffing, he will go all the way with it. I feel like they just decide "ok now I'm going to bluff" for no apparent reason, which is why I find this happens all the time. So if I ever had any kind of hand, I would never try to take back the initiative from him and raise unless I had nothing and I felt confident he was bluffing. In those instances I'd 3bet, in most instances I have nothing so I fold. But in those instances I have something, I just keep clicking call almost no matter how bad the board runs out, because I expect them to show up with two random rags that don't connect with the board (or the nuts). Fish don't usually bluff in the same way a pro would.

It depends on what I think about my opponent. A lot of guys I will just start firing away and usually get a fold by the turn. Sometimes I'll play AJ type hands more passively and go into a c/c mode. If I have 2 overs and a bdfd I am happy firing two usually at least. I think it's real good to fire two on boards like 234 235 345 because most anybody will call this flop if they are holding an ace, but if they don't improve on the turn they are generally giving up. I also value bet very thinly whenever I pair one of my overcards on this type of board. If I had like T9 and cbet 235 and was called, if turn came a 9 or T I'd be value betting turn and value betting river (big bets on both)

I think barreling with no equity is fine in some instances. Like if you really know your opponent that well that he is going to fold such a high percentage of the time, then the two cards you are holding are irrelevant.

Once I had 22 opened CO against a BTN flat. Flop came AQJfd or something like that, I bet a standard amount, villain called. Turn came 9o, and I just 1.5x the pot because I thought he was gonna fold a lot. So I do it, but it's not a common practice, more of the once in a while rare type of situation.

I don't know my standard deviation off hand, but I do know that it is significantly higher than the majority of players at my stakes. I'd say I experience 10 buy in swings very often, even over the course of a session. Maybe not losing 10 buy ins straight, but more stuff like, lose 5 buy ins, win 1 buy in, lose 5 more buy ins, win back 8 buy ins, lose 4 of those, etc. Single sessions have had 30+ buy in swings in the manner I was just discussing.

Actually I am pretty sure I know who you are now. Yes I remember. Are you a fish? No. As far as I can tell you are a pretty smart opponent even though I've seen you do some things I think are less than stellar.

I actually think you would have thought that I was the fish because I'm sure you think that I am too light to peel the turn with very marginal holdings and relatively weak draws when this is actually just my game plan and it's something I feel confident in doing it. I feel like you try to exploit this but you struggle to, and that's because I think what I'm doing is correct.

The way you described here is basically exactly how I use it. (Turn cbet %)

And yes, you need to discount some percent on particular types of flops. Obviously 456fd is getting cbet less than K82r, you need to also remember to adjust those numbers based on the flop texture, same thing for the turn texture.

Thanks Marsh for sharing your thoughts! LOTS of good info coming out here...

How often do u bluff on the river when u know your opponent has a weak tp or worse? Lets say that hero opens from CO and BTN calls. Hero c-bets flop, villain calls. Turn goes check check. At this point hero might have second pair or worse, villain could have weak tp/random draw or whatever. So basically hero has given up when he checks the river and villain now bets for thin value or just cause hero will most likely fold. How often can/should I attack here and what is more +EV, raising or shoving?

Marshall got banned? :\

Really good point

I see several of his posts are edited by others who I assume have to be mods to do this.

I think Buff Disciple said that this is one of the best contributing posts in several years in ssnl. I hope it can be reurrected and both parties can meet in the middle as this is/has been a fantastic thread and a real feather in everyones cap. I hope it can continue. I find myself re reading it over and over trying to injest the content and every time something goes bing.

If not I would love to see someone equally skilled take inspiration and do similar.

marshall will be back in a day

this is a great thread and the response has been outstanding, but the rules are not negotiable

Do I take it from this your stats play out very LAG ~25/23/10 Agg Fac 5, range or higher?

If I'm going to post here anymore I need to come to some sort of understanding with the mods because I can't really afford to get a permanent ban here as I rely on a lot of information I get from the HSNL forums.

Just so you guys know.

This question is way too vague.

If I think I have the best hand AND my opponent is not capable of c/r bluffing, I will always bet. If I think my opponent is likely to fold and I have the worst hand, yes I'll bet. If you want a more specific answer you have to ask a more specific question.

I enjoyed your videos on Grinder School a couple of years ago. Thanks for the thread.

1 quick question. What types of boards are you c/f after you have 3 bet OOP with something like AK and your opponent has called you? It seems like I am cbetting way too often after 3 betting OOP.

thanks for the thread marshall and great questions too. i've read the thread a few times and there is some great info here.

thanks for your time and knowledge!

????? rules broke in THIS thread??