No real reads on villain except he's 44/33 over 27 hands

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
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oPTICAL199 (BB): $42.75
MrOnePutt (UTG): $310.75
Hero (MP): $416.90
yiting (CO): $301.60
clites1 (BTN): $398.65
QZERT (SB): $198.00

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with K A
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, clites1 raises to $20, 2 folds, Hero calls $12

Flop: ($43.00) J 2 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, clites1 checks

Turn: ($43.00) A (2 players)
Hero checks, clites1 bets $20, Hero calls $20

River: ($83.00) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, clites1 bets $78

I don't know what he minraises and checks on that flop. So, I decide to bluff catch/pot control on turn and was planning on snapcalling river, but the Q made me think I'm not beating anything but a bluff now and I don't really feel like he's bluffing.

Wondering why you decided not to 4bet PF with the deep stacks against a small 3bet? OOP?

As played, I think turn is fine. River could be a fold for me, but we have underrepped our hand here.

I would call against a 44/33 villain. You may see AQ/AJ here some, but your hand is so underrepped and he is such a donk that I like a call.

It's the first time I've seen him 3bet anyone so I just don't feel like going ape**** w/ AKo until I figure out his play a little more. I would hate to get 5bet pf or have him flat my 4bet and still be OOP in a bloated pot deep.

i'm most concerned by jj/qq but there are so few combos of that compared to who knows what kind of **** he could have he's 44/33 rando.

and i really think 4bet pf to 68 or so is better than flatting. he's never 5betting worse so if he does, consider it a blessing it only cost you $68 to find out he has kk+. you'll fold out a ton of mid-pp's (which i think is a larger part of his range than anything else), and pot size/stacks will still be good to cbet any flop to fold out so much more

i think i c/r/call turn

is this crazy?

could someone explain why you'd wanna 4bet pre here?

being deep stacked, oop are reasons why you should wanna keep the pot small, no?

The river is a fold. This is played fine, I think. I'm not against 4 betting preflop but your line certainly isn't awful. I just don't see this being a river bluff from a guy like this quite often. I don't think it's a good river to block either since when we are called we almost always are beaten or chopping at some times.

His range is wide open preflop but on the river it's usually AA,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ,AJ,A10,A9.

I think he doesn't turn Kings into bluffs or fire $78 here with nothing since he checked the flop. If he decided to bluff I don't think he gets cute with a flop check.

why are we completely ignoring the fact that this is a 44/33 random?

and we wanna 4bet preflop because we have the better hand and because it forces him to incorrectly fold a large number of hands. if we 4bet we wont be deepstacked oop, we'll have 2.5psb's on the flop. which is even shorter stacked than if we had flatted that same 3bet 100bb deep.

I wouldn't put too much into the stats as it was only 27 hands. If fact I think at time of hand I had even less hands on him.
And when I 4bet him I don't think he's folding anything. Just my hunch.

right that makes sense now.

say villain was a solid reg? less incentive to 4bet b/c he's smart enough to fold dominated hands yes?

well yes only 27 hands but how many good players 3bet to $20 200bb deep here. come on. whether it's a good play or not is irrelevant, the point is the vast majority of people who make this kind of raise are not as good overall as those who would make it a more conventional 26-32 here. the fact that he's 44/33 is secondary and just a little more evidence really.

As I was reading the HH I thought 4 betting pre was good.

On the turn I'd probably c/r,

River is weird. I'd probably call cuz he's a 44/33 random, but that's about as much justification as i can give :P

I'm past preflop now. I still don't get the argument for check/raising the turn. It seems to me that throws money in against sets, AA, AJ and chops with AK. It *might* stack AQ, A10, A9 but I cannot say for sure. It very well may lead to folding out those hands.

My top play would be to play the turn like you did and fire $55 at a blank river.

This isn't one of them.

As soon as I check here it is with the intention of folding considering I still don't see him bluffing after checking the flop through and betting so small on the turn.

That is not a consistent bluff from a guy who 3 bets $8 to $20. You'd expect a guy like that to bet, bet, bet, large amounts on a bluff or to at least follow through on the flop.

His check, bet small, bet rather large is usually the sign of strength. It's like when an uncreative guy is asleep and all of a sudden wakes up..he has it.

He is a 44/33.

He can definitely be betting AT for value on the river, no?

It's 27 hands so we cannot say for sure.

There should really be a theorem on this line because that's primarily where my decision is going.

I also expect him to bet in the $20-45 ballpark on the river with A9/A10 because these type of guys play the strength of their hand very closely in line with their bet amounts.

He likely doesn't view A10 on this board texture as $78 worth on the river.