Party Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $136.75
Hero (SB): $144.65
BB: $21.50
UTG: $107.85
MP: $105.35
CO: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with A J
UTG raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($8.00) 2 3 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5.00, Hero raises to $13, UTG calls $8

Turn: ($34.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero...?

Villain: 16/13 84hands
Follow through on the turn? What about flop play?

I wasn't sure about how to play the flop, I decided to raise, but I am not sure if it accomplishes anything. I wasn't sure about c/cing, because I didnt want to c/c the turn again and c/f seemed to be weak, although it probably isnt.

Comments appreciated, please more than one line answers, I want some thought process.

i like a fold preflop
ur valuetowning urself a lot if u make a pair and i dont want to rely on bluffing a nits utg range postflop to make my call pre +ev
he doesnt open Axs UTG, he doesnt open AT utg, probably folds JT, QJ, KJ, too so i dont see a point in calling

i like a semi bluff raise on the flop if u plan on following up a lot of turns, because he will likely call a lot of medium strength hands at least once.
he will fold the turn a lot, even tho its not the best card in the deck but nits like him a) peel a lot in position with overs + fd instead of 3betting it and b) will often fold sth like 88 to a 2nd barrel

Barreling here would be really bad imo. What does he call a flop c/r with that is scared of the board pairing? The only made hands you are repping are flopped sets and to a lesser degree flopped straights. Check/fold turn. As far as the flop c/r is concerned, I don't like it either. Did you have a feel for how often he was c-betting? Would he likely c-bet air on this board? If he would, then I guess you could c/c flop, hope the turn goes check/check and then evaluate the river. If he wouldn't c-bet air, then I'd just check/fold the flop because you have dirty outs and the 5 is going to kill your action if he doesn't have an ace. I think preflop is fine fwiw.

I dont really like this at all a 16/13 is gonna have such a strong UTG range that I cant really see this being massively profitable and expecting a nit to fold any overpair is bad, also once the board pairs on turn I would be giving up because anything that calls the flop c/r is'nt folding turn

if i bet the turn id follow up some rivers, too obv
(also we got outs)
but as said earlier: i dont want to rely on bluffing nits, thus i fold preflop as the hand itself wont show profit vs his range

His range is almost entirely 22+ and he's not folding much of it.

Preflop is standard and folding is a leak in my books, sample size isnt big enough to assume he only raises premium hands.

Flop play is probably crucial. I didnt know what to do, but folding is so weak imo.

Preflop I like to fold this OOP against a nit, because like you said in your post, it is too hard to play against their range. I like the flop move, you took your stab. If the turn was a better card I like to barrel, but on that card I don't think he will fold much.

PF is fine...

I don't like the flop CR. He's calling with all PP's and most, if not all, Ax hands. He'll also be calling with any flush draw. You're really only folding out KQ and maybe a couple of suited connectors that he raised with.

I like calling flop and firing the turn if he checks. There's also a ton of scare cards that you could raise on the turn that would get him to fold some PP's.

Pre-flop depends on how well you play post-flop, if you think you got a skill advantage over UTG, whether the BB is likely to come in, fold or squeeze. So I'm not going to comment on whether or not it's a good play or not, but I generally fold in these spots.

I don't like the flop play. His stats indicate a nit and if the sample size is too small to judge about that then we probably don't know enough about opponent to play properly post-flop. I think it would be different with a flop like 234 where we can double barrel turn with some equity.

There is nothing wrong with folding this flop. I also think that check/calling this flop is fine as well if he's the type to check back the turn unimproved.

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.435% 53.05% 04.38% 406966008 33625220.00 { 22+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 42.565% 38.18% 04.38% 292895744 33625220.00 { AJs }


I dont care who you are, unless villain is really terrible postflop your not overcoming that equity disadvantage oop. Fold preflop isnt a leak.


Although as played i'd like a flop c/c much more. I feel like he'll play pretty straight forward on the turn and river and you can probably take it away from him on a later street if he's giving up.

Thinking that folding this pre to a tightish UTG open is a leak, is a leak in your thinking process. I think calling is alright, but most people are probably better off folding. w/e it's pre it's not a huge deal.

I would generally just c/f the flop w/o reads. He's probably peeling w Ax and any pair which is a pretty big part of his range. Barreling the turn itself is probably -EV; it's alright if you're shoving a lot of rivers.

I would only barrel a spade/A/6, and I think you need to make your 3-bet larger...

edit: not sure that I would barrel a A anymore... think you would have the best hand too much to be turning it into a bluff.

edit 2: c/c'ing sucks... I like the analysis to raise or fold, although I think you picked a bad situation to bluff, if you get a good turn card you can take it down a lot.

that turn card sucks ass, i'd probably c/f.

c/r the flop is gross...you fold out KQ, and uh, KQ